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John1122

12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.

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Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I was actually kind of wondering if that was the case with that blue color. That was a color I don't see too often. 

Yea, I think it will be close - got an awful lot of kiddos headed out the door this am for school - if it changes sooner than expected...

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NAMs aren't doing so well with the precip.

6z 3km and 12 km NAM radar projections for 7 AM:

giphy.gif

 

Radar as of 730 AM

 

giphy.gif

 

RGEM and latest HRRR look better but the HRRR has also been trending better the past few runs, maybe playing catchup with radar presentation? :weenie:

 

giphy.gif

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West side of the state update.  I’ve got a sleet, freezing rain mix at 35 degrees at the moment.  Looks like a line of snow will move in soon and be around for 3-4 hours.  We will see how it pans out 

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I noticed mixed radar returns were already showing up on MRX radar, using Radarscope, near Gainesboro. Is this not very early compared to predictions.

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If you look on models like the RGEM, NAM, and ARW....they all show several little ripples riding up that boundary.  Very difficult to model.  If the eastern valley scores on this, it will be one of those "micro-bursts"(man, no idea what to call those) moving from southwest to northeast.  Again, we are probably talking the difference between one tenth of moisture.  Not sure the models are precise enough for that...yet.  One day they will likely be.  So, I think the reason for the models "waffling" is we are talking about small amounts of precip making the difference between nothing and and inch or two of snow.

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Looks like I should be at 35 by 1PM at the rate the cold air is moving in.

Re: Carver's that last ripple has consistently been modeled as the best one, I think whoever gets that one may get a quick inch. Has been projected up towards your area, but I also think the precip is being underdone by the models to an extent. Does precip continue to slightly overperform, no idea, lol. On the local radar sites to the west, you definitely see the dry air trying to intrude. 

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Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Looks like I should be at 35 by 1PM at the rate the cold air is moving in.

Re: Carver's that last ripple has consistently been modeled as the best one, I think whoever gets that one may get a quick inch. Has been projected up towards your area, but I also think the precip is being underdone by the models to an extent. Does precip continue to slightly overperform, no idea, lol. On the local radar sites to the west, you definitely see the dry air trying to intrude. 

With it falling at night, that is also a plus for those of us trying to eek out an inch or two of snow in the eastern valley.  Interesting for sure.  Will also be interesting to see how the system at 144 evolves over the next few days.

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2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Will also be interesting to see how the system at 144 evolves over the next few days.

For sure. The way things have been shifting even in the short term could make that one even more interesting! Be nice not to be chasing anafrontal 0.5 to 1 inch, lol, but I'm a beggar, so I ain't choosin! 

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Watch where these enhancements form to our southwest.  They are generally modeled to hold together in their trek northeast.  Get under one of those and you will be ripping fatties for 30 minutes, give or take.  Good luck to those west of us.  I hope the precip continues to overperform vs what is initialized in modeling and some of you out that way can get a surprise or two.....

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Just now, tnweathernut said:

Watch where these enhancements form to our southwest.  They are generally modeled to hold together in their trek northeast.  Get under one of those and you will be ripping fatties for 30 minutes, give or take.  Good luck to those west of us.  I hope the precip continues to overperform vs what is initialized in modeling and some of you out that way can get a surprise or two.....

  Getting some light snow now in north-western hardeman County at the moment. 

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Think I just caught the front moving through NE TN on NEXRAD, either that or some weird leeside of the plateau enhancement. Interesting to see how it seems to move across the N sections more quickly
giphy.gif&key=d61c44697088a1f04e862ca59324a59cb0cd734cb34a651b75a641e9c20377fa


Well that tells us the mountains didn’t slow it down any.


.

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