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John1122

12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.

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After looking, the Rockies funnel cold air rapidly down the plains but as it spreads further from the Rockies it slows down.  That's why you can see 50 degree temp drops in an hour there.  Was reading about a place in Wisconsin that had mid 70s and tornadoes one morning in November, and the rescue efforts for the tornado victims took place in a blizzard. 

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The difference between the GFS/RGEM and the NAM is truly remarkable for being 12-18 hours away at most. 
 

Pondering a drive up to the Crossville area tomorrow from Atlanta. The snow itch is real. :guitar: so much uncertainty. 

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18 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

00z GFS sounding for Memphis, while somehow dropping 6" snow???cca744f01197d8e1f291419cd0d18c76.jpg

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It snows my column as below freezing from the top down tomorrow evening but says best guess precip type is rain.  Confusing. 

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The ICON believe it or not has shown signs of improvement Plateau and east albeit still very underwhelming. 2 runs ago it had only portions of the plateau and SWVA barely catching a dusting. I'm wondering if the cold air arrives sooner than MRX is expecting especially with what the NAM did.

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The ICON believe it or not has shown signs of improvement Plateau and east albeit still very underwhelming. 2 runs ago it had only portions of the plateau and SWVA barely catching a dusting. I'm wondering if the cold air arrives sooner than MRX is expecting especially with what the NAM did.
Noticed on all the 00z modeling there is decent lift from Nashville east to the Smokies (for a couple hours while before the layer gets dry slotted)..00z Euro increased across this area as well. If that is how it unfolds..could see a nice 1-3 plateau (1-1.5 valley) area underneath the higher rates. The OPRH is supportive of the band.

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00z NAM...the energy continues east to the mountains, with surface temps right around freezing. It would definitely be threading the needle, with a small window to put down some moderate snow.c8ef8276d4a838c3ff3de36d9d6b7229.jpg459e22091d7494a93366ce66ad4c5748.jpg

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05z RAP hits Northern middle down to Nashville with around 1 inch. Northern Plateau from Jamestown to Cumberland Gap with 2-3 stretching into Kentucky.  Still some snow happening in eastern areas at that point. Not much going on south of 40 on the RAP, especially eastern areas. But it's out there at the edge if its range still. That said the last few runs have been focusing on SEKy and the Northern areas for accumulation. It's a much better model out to about hour 6 to 8 vs 15+  

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In MRX's latest discussion, the short version is that they will not be issuing any winter weather advisories due to their thinking that the road surfaces will be too warm and the snow won't be heavy enough to stick around on the roads. Their current thinking is 1-1.5 inches in the plateau, 1-3 in the higher elevations in the smokies and Northeast TN/SW Virginia, and maybe a dusting in the valley, all on grassy surfaces.

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 MRX has a terrible track record with issuing winter products. Their logic on this one is questionable imo. They apparently don't understand that moderate snow falling in mid December with such a low sun angle, and after dark, will stick to roads. Especially since the forecast low for my area is 23 degrees. Now it might not snow very much and that's one thing, but the seem confident that actual snow depth will exceed winter weather advisory criteria in the area. It has been modestly warm for 36 hours, but we had sub-freezing lows every day of December except the 1st and the 9th. If the snow comes as modeled and as forecast and hits around 4-9 pm, I-75 will get messy and dangerous here, especially since it gets to about 2500 feet near here.

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The rain/ snow line is getting close to Nashville. I know many of you know about the correlation coefficient, but if you are wondering what in the world this weird looking radar is, it's part of a dual polarization radar that can help identify rain and snow because of how it scans what's falling through the air. 

giphy.gif

First you can see the front pass south of Nashville and then the brighter colors show the transition to snow. When it is in a circle around a radar site at a pretty uniform distance it is usually because the radar is not aimed straight out, but at an angle up and it is seeing the transition to snow, but waaaaayyyyy up. Notice here how it starts to crawl in to Nashville as the loop continues. That is the rain/snow line creeping closer and down in the atmosphere. 

I'm not sure exactly how high it is right now, but it is moving in. 

There is still some moisture lingering back that way too and I bet those enhanced echoes north of Nashville over s. KY are some bright banding as the snow is melting in the atmosphere. 

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Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The rain/ snow line is getting close to Nashville. I know many of you know about the correlation coefficient, but if you are wondering what in the world this weird looking radar is, it's part of a dual polarization radar that can help identify rain and snow because of how it scans what's falling through the air. 

giphy.gif

First you can see the front pass south of Nashville and then the brighter colors show the transition to snow. When it is in a circle around a radar site at a pretty uniform distance it is usually because the radar is not aimed straight out, but at an angle up and it is seeing the transition to snow, but waaaaayyyyy up. Notice here how it starts to crawl in to Nashville as the lop continues. That is the rain snow line creeping closer and down in the atmosphere. 

I'm not sure exactly how high it is right now, but it is moving in. 

There is still some moisture lingering back that way too and I bet those enhanced echoes north of Nashville over s. KY are some bright banding as the snow is melting in the atmosphere. 

Some of that is sleet; I am northeast of Nashville and we have sleet mixing in here

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