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December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill
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The thing about the weeklies/seasonal/climate guidance- pretty much all depicting a +NAO moving forward- is they align with the persistence of the (+)NAO phase for winter going back many years. Just sayin'. It's like predicting warmer than avg temps for met winter. By default, you will probably be correct.

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29 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The thing about the weeklies/seasonal/climate guidance- pretty much all depicting a +NAO moving forward- is they align with the persistence of the (+)NAO phase for winter going back many years. Just sayin'. It's like predicting warmer than avg temps for met winter. By default, you will probably be correct.

More interested in D1-D10 and nothing farther than that for now. At least trying lol. With that said EPS has a building  -NAO and by day 10 looks decent. So unless the pattern collapses on itself, which it could in a few weeks, take what we can get for now.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

More interested in D1-D10 and nothing farther than that for now. At least trying lol. With that said EPS has a building  -NAO and by day 10 looks decent. So unless the pattern collapses on itself, which it could in a few weeks, take what we can get for now.

I agree. The super LR models are not worth more than the casual glance IMO. Just saying, what they are currently advertising in general is probably the mostly likely outcome given the persistence of a +NAO during the winter months in recent years.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I agree. The super LR models are not worth more than the casual glance IMO. Just saying, what they are currently advertising is probably the mostly likely outcome given the persistence of a +NAO during the winter months in recent years.

I am banking that if the -NAO develops it remains stable for the LR.  Sure why not.  

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13 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I am banking that if the -NAO develops it remains stable for the LR.  Sure why not.  

If the QBO keeps trending to neutral/negative,  combined with near solar min, favorable tropospheric forcing mechanisms that act to weaken the PV, and potentially weak Nino forcing, we may end up with a -AO and by association a -NAO. No one knows exactly how the HL look will evolve. Its difficult to predict at long lead times. I can see a case for some relatively short lived blocking in the near term, a relaxation, then a more significant NA block developing later in winter. Hopefully the PNA/EPO/WPO will be generally favorable when the NA is less so.

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12 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Does that mean the LR guidance can be trusted in your opinion? I just remember last year not being stellar in that regard. 

On the totem pole of wisdom I am on the bottom...but if the EPS and GEFS show similar solutions inside 12 days then you have to pay attention.  And hope and wish of course.  

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5 hours ago, poolz1 said:

I wish there was an option to remove the color scheme sometimes....Though not a great looking pattern on that 7 day mean just looking at the height lines looks like a +PNA that reaches all the way north of AK.  Washed out of course but the anomalies make it a little deceiving imo.   

I just look at the areas with the strongest height anomalies as those features are what the model suite is seeing as the highest probability. Lowest heights north of the Aleutians and in the NAO region and strong ridging north of HI is a really bad combo for snow in the eastern half of the conus. The CFS implies a warm conus pattern with a storm track to our west. If the cfs weekly or monthly pattern is right then the hottest thread in our sub will be the panic room. Lol

The good thing is seasonal guidance totally missed the Nov pattern. Especially the AO/NAO region. Another reminder that long lead models are unreliable and cannot be trusted. I love what I see right now in real time through the next 10 days. Gets even better d10-15. If that becomes a persistant pattern then the panic room might go out of business. 

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24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I've been too lazy to sign back up with wxbell. Someone needs to post weeks 3-4 from the euro weeklies unless they look like turds. I'm ignoring all bad looks until further notice

Not sure why you care lol. I know I don't. Give me a sec and I will post  a couple panels tho. They aren't great, but I have seen worse.

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Just now, BristowWx said:

If the colors were not there it looks like a broad trough in the East and broad ridge in the west.  East based zonal trough. 

Thats one reason why I find them mostly useless. They are smoothed to the point of almost complete ambiguity. Some people will see those panels as pretty decent, and others will think they completely suck ass.

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9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Thats one reason why I find them mostly useless. They are smoothed to the point of almost complete ambiguity. Some people will see those panels as pretty decent, and others will think they completely suck ass.

I'm surprised how positive the ao and nao are. Ignoring everything else it's never a good sign and not one I want to see in Dec as it can be a bad omen if it were to happen. Maybe it's the opposite of last year and weeklies/seasonals keep showing a flip to +ao/nao that never verifies. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm surprised how positive the ao and nao are. Ignoring everything else it's never a good sign and not one I want to see in Dec as it can be a bad omen if it were to happen. Maybe it's the opposite of last year and weeklies/seasonals keep showing a flip to +ao/nao that never verifies. 

I guess i'm not. One reason is the tellies on the EPS runs lately have consistently shown both the AO and NAO trending to neutral as we get to Dec 1. So not too surprising the weeklies have both indices positive a week or 2 later. I also have little confidence that is correct, although playing the odds (given recent winters) it probably would not be a bad bet to make. If the currently advertised HL blocking does in fact verify per the current global ens guidance over the next 10 days, then I would expect the weeklies to adjust.

My preference is to just take it 10 days or so at a time using the global ensembles, given the utter failure of the weeklies/climate models last winter. Using that metric, I like what I see going forward. :weenie:

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20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm surprised how positive the ao and nao are. Ignoring everything else it's never a good sign and not one I want to see in Dec as it can be a bad omen if it were to happen. Maybe it's the opposite of last year and weeklies/seasonals keep showing a flip to +ao/nao that never verifies. 

CPC is backing down on the severe -ao/- nao it had been showing for several days. Ao, nao, and pna look neutral towards late Nov. Again, could be worse I suppose.

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Most recent runs of the EPS are losing the +Heights in the NAO domain at the end. If over the next few cycles(or just the 0z run Monday AM) the +heights become more anomalous at the end of the run( NAO trending negative) what do ya think the weeklies will show on the Monday edition for early-mid Dec?

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26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Most recent runs of the EPS are losing the +Heights in the NAO domain at the end. If over the next few cycles(or just the 0z run Monday AM) the +heights become more anomalous at the end of the run( NAO trending negative) what do ya think the weeklies will show on the Monday edition for early-mid Dec?

Depends... last year the great looks would frequently penetrate from the weeklies into the day 11-14 ensembles range. But never past day 10. But when they would repeatedly collapse back and day 14 would look like crap again on the eps the weeklies would still magically flip the pattern by the end of week 3. It did that numerous times. So no matter what the eps shows day 14 if the weeklies is making a mistake based on a factor it’s miscalculating it might be likely to continue making that error so long as the same background state persists. It never corrected itself all winter last year.  

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8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Depends... last year the great looks would frequently penetrate from the weeklies into the day 11-14 ensembles range. But never past day 10. But when they would repeatedly collapse back and day 14 would look like crap again on the eps the weeklies would still magically flip the pattern by the end of week 3. It did that numerous times. So no matter what the eps shows day 14 if the weeklies is making a mistake based on a factor it’s miscalculating it might be likely to continue making that error so long as the same background state persists. It never corrected itself all winter last year.  

That was sort of a rhetorical question, lol. I Agree, but that is the fundamental issue with the weeklies, and why they are essentially useless(IMO) if you go out further than say 2 weeks beyond the end of the EPS run that they initialize on. Seems in many cases they will just continue the same general advertised look(which may very well be incorrect) for a week or 2, before possibly deviating for whatever reason. That was the context of the discussion - the advertised AO/NAO state at the end of the EPS run and looking at weeks 3 and 4 on the weeklies(first 2 weeks beyond the end of the eps run).

 

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I will gladly take this look to start the month of Dec. GEFS looks very similar.

 

December cancel uncancel?  18z GEFS brings back some +PNA/-EPO action around Thanksgiving.  Honestly, always wise just to focus on the next 7-10 days and only pay a bit of attention to D10+.  Easier said then done obviously.  AO only looks to go increasingly negative after D5 when high pressure sets up shop at the surface (where the AO is technically calculated).  

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Boy this guy Webb is really something else. He is posting at the 33 forum at 3:30 am about the 00z GEFS/EPS being warmer to support his ideas which may or may not be correct but he just has this inherent need to be right and prove everyone else who doesn't support his ideas is wrong. He even seems to get a bit argumentative at times. I mean wow.

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8 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

December cancel uncancel?  18z GEFS brings back some +PNA/-EPO action around Thanksgiving.  Honestly, always wise just to focus on the next 7-10 days and only pay a bit of attention to D10+.  Easier said then done obviously.  AO only looks to go increasingly negative after D5 when high pressure sets up shop at the surface (where the AO is technically calculated).  

This is what I am doing for the most part, but given this is the December thread and it is in sight on the LR now, worth a peak- especially given what the seasonal models are advertising.

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