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BlunderStorm

11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event

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I think what we're waiting on is a little shortwave  to race up from the southwest and give us those last few hours of enhancement. 

giphy.gif

I really think some eastern valley areas with any trapped moisture and that extra bit of lift could do better than me here on the southern edge of the plateau. 

Blue Ridge don't kill me but I wonder if a Greeneville to JC to Abingdon line might do the best? 

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1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think what we're waiting on is a little shortwave  to race up from the southwest and give us those last few hours of enhancement. 

giphy.gif

I really think some eastern valley areas with any trapped moisture and that extra bit of lift could do better than me here on the southern edge of the plateau. 

Blue Ridge don't kill me but I wonder if a Greeneville to JC to Abingdon line might do the best? 

I think that's a probable outcome. Some of our best surprises have been the result of a strong cold front popping a small S/W. That seems to really enhance the lift and results in the front using the mountains like a squeegee. I feel strangely confident that we outperform MRX's most recent forecast in the Tri-Cities area. 

Side note: I'm no longer in the miserable snow bubble of Greeneville and instead in a somewhat more favorable spot just north of Jonesborough. I think I'm slightly southwest of Nut. Looking back at recent history, I feel like I'm in a much better spot for southern stream systems but far enough north to perhaps benefit in setups where Sullivan Co. winds up Ground Zero.

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10 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

I think that's a probable outcome. Some of our best surprises have been the result of a strong cold front popping a small S/W. That seems to really enhance the lift and results in the front using the mountains like a squeegee. I feel strangely confident that we outperform MRX's most recent forecast in the Tri-Cities area. 

Side note: I'm no longer in the miserable snow bubble of Greeneville and instead in a somewhat more favorable spot just north of Jonesborough. I think I'm slightly southwest of Nut. Looking back at recent history, I feel like I'm in a much better spot for southern stream systems but far enough north to perhaps benefit in setups where Sullivan Co. winds up Ground Zero.

That'll help quite a bit.  We used to live off Sunset just near State of Franklin several years ago while my wife was finishing up med school.  We used to rack the heck up on northwest flow events over there.  Lived right on top of a hill.  Plus, if you just need to see snow...you can always drive to Boone and see it while they are blowing snow.  LOL.  JC is a great location.  I miss seeing the mountains over there every day.

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Has began raining in Roane County, Kingston to be more specific. Find that interesting since MRX mentioned it would take time to saturate due to dry air.

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Was thinking about the system last Jan and found the radar loop that looks towards the end anyway, like what the meso models have been doing for E TN tomorrow AM.

Jan 29, 2019:

giphy.gif

Obviously this one is different with more precip. initially, but will be interesting to see how it compares when all is said and done. 

Now:

giphy.gif 

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Parts of west/middle Tennessee was just issued a winter weather advisory. My buddy NE of Jackson is saying the changeover is happening faster than expected


.

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2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Parts of west/middle Tennessee was just issued a winter weather advisory. My buddy NE of Jackson is saying the changeover is happening faster than expected


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They pulled the trigger cause, like MRX, they were counting on the warmth ahead of the front to keep roadways clear..not happening, areas they have fell below 32 are already freezing up.

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They pulled the trigger cause, like MRX, they were counting on the warmth ahead of the front to keep roadways clear..not happening, areas they have fell below 32 are already freezing up.






.
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5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Parts of west/middle Tennessee was just issued a winter weather advisory. My buddy NE of Jackson is saying the changeover is happening faster than expected


.

Yup, calling for up to an inch at my place in Hardeman County.  Hasn’t changed over to snow at my place (25 miles south of Jackson) yet but,  I will keep y’all posted.   Under a winter weather advisory now, winds are gonna be howling tonight too!!

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Yup, calling for up to an inch at my place in Hardeman County.  Hasn’t changed over to snow at my place (25 miles south of Jackson) yet but,  I will keep y’all posted.  

Good luck


.
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23 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Yup, calling for up to an inch at my place in Hardeman County.  Hasn’t changed over to snow at my place (25 miles south of Jackson) yet but,  I will keep y’all posted.   Under a winter weather advisory now, winds are gonna be howling tonight too!!

What is your temp, how fast is it falling? Cold has an easier time spilling in west of the Plateau. 

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5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

What is your temp, how fast is it falling? Cold has an easier time spilling in west of the Plateau. 

Sitting at 37 right now,  been falling quickly over the past 3 hours.

 

edit- 36

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8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

What is your temp, how fast is it falling? Cold has an easier time spilling in west of the Plateau. 

Here's a PWS graph from near Paris, TN..looks like a fairly steady few deg drop per hour.

20191111_195558.jpg

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