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BlunderStorm

11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event

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With significant post-frontal snow looking increasingly possible for the northern and mid tiers of the Tennessee Valley under current modeling, going forward I figured I'd start ourselves a little thread dedicated to it and the potential early start to the winter season! ;) 

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Our thoughts- some of the higher totals towards the higher elevations in the range. 

Not sold on the Euro, as I think we'll have near freezing temps BUT if we get a nice period of moderate snow, it could accumulate nicely in spots. 

Model Snow - Studio Earth.png

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Not much change in the 18z RGEM. A little less totals on the plateau compared to the 12z run. It's just going to depend on how fast the cold arrives and where those heavy bands setup I believe.

 

image.thumb.png.c7e830b05b1b7bde48ad7cc89e2b1215.png

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Love it...Even if it doesn't work out, a winter thread in November is always a bonus!  Hey, if we can get a winter thread in April early next spring...that would give us six months of tracking!  

My expectations are low on this one.  I just want to see some snow showers.  Any accumulation is a total bonus this early, but I do like looking at snow accumulation maps though!  I may have to put in The Day After Tomorrow to get me fired up!!!  I like that movie, not going to lie.  My other favorite weather movies are Twister, 2012(more geology), and pretty much any Christmas movie with snow in it.  Christmas Vacation and Home Alone are pretty much awesome.  Yeah, I am a weather geek and I just can't help it.  In for later! Good luck to everyone on getting some early season snow.  Have to think folks about 2,000' are sitting pretty good on this one.

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Christmas Vacation is the greatest Christmas Comedy of all time, I’ve watched that movie at least a hundred times. Never gets old! 

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I wonder if we'll see an uptick in amounts from MRX from the overnight shift. Used to be for the longest time the overnight shift was a bit more liberal in their forecasts than the day shifts.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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Looks like the 00z NAM picked up totals compared to the 18z. It looked like it had some heavy bands setting up for an hour or two. I can see why the MRX is being cautious on their totals though, usually the cold chasing the moisture doesn't work out too well for the valley. Hopefully, it works out for a good chunk of the area this time though.

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24 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

0z GFS says congrats to Knox Co...6.3" lol

That's insane lol. It does seem like someone has the potential to see some over performing action based on some of the heavy bands the models are showing though.

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I don't blame MRX either, this would be an unusual event to have that much post frontal snow, everything they mention in AFD is about rapid drying and maybe 2-3 hours of snowfall at best. I guess either the models will blink tomorrow or MRX may have to up totals just in case. I suspect ultimately a winter weather advisory for the Smokies/Wise/NE Mountains, SPS otherwise.

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28 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I don't blame MRX either, this would be an unusual event to have that much post frontal snow, everything they mention in AFD is about rapid drying and maybe 2-3 hours of snowfall at best. I guess either the models will blink tomorrow or MRX may have to up totals just in case. I suspect ultimately a winter weather advisory for the Smokies/Wise/NE Mountains, SPS otherwise.

So far on obs at the surface behind the front, the dry air is lagging behind by roughly by about 5-6 hrs. My thoughts right now are about an 1" accumulation for central valley north, plateau/foothills Smokies 1"-2", with areas above 1500' (valley/plateau/mtns) having the best chance to over perform.

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2 hours ago, John1122 said:

Kind of surprised, MRX went with a WWA for the Plateau, SWVA, and the mountains. I didn't think all those areas would land one and am surprised Knox to Tri didn't if the other areas were getting one.

They seem to be living off history on this one.  Most of the time that is a good move but every once and a while different happens.

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Don’t forget the possibilities of a little RH getting trapped in the valley with CAA overrunning. Seen this happen a couple of times but its more typical East of 40/81


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Well, once we get to around 12-18 hours before an event, that's when I switch over to watch and see mode by beginning to monitor the radar and reported temps. It helps to watch the models but at some point reality has to take precedence. It appears that time will soon arrive.

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I think everyone is having the same doubts because there’s nothing to account for the extra precip in the valley and mods don’t handle micro climate enhancement all that well. Unless the environment post front is really unstable, I’m having a hard time seeing more than the typical 1” max on the ridge tops in the valley.


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IF what 

6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I think everyone is having the same doubts because there’s nothing to account for the extra precip in the valley and mods don’t handle micro climate enhancement all that well. Unless the environment post front is really unstable, I’m having a hard time seeing more than the typical 1” max on the ridge tops in the valley.


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 What you are saying is true if there is nothing to account for the extra precipitation in the Valley.  I was hoping that someone with more knowledge could explain what the models were seeing for the central Valley but if their is no explanation then MRX is making a good call.

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IF what 
 What you are saying is true if there is nothing to account for the extra precipitation in the Valley.  I was hoping that someone with more knowledge could explain what the models were seeing for the central Valley but if their is no explanation then MRX is making a good call.

I’m not your guy to explain what’s going on with the mods, this board has a lot more smarter people than me on here.


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IF what 

 What you are saying is true if there is nothing to account for the extra precipitation in the Valley.  I was hoping that someone with more knowledge could explain what the models were seeing for the central Valley but if their is no explanation then MRX is making a good call.

I think the models are anticipating the cold air to advect faster than we normally see and catching up to the heavier precip before it's done not just the super light stuff that would normally just be sprinkles behind the front. What MRX is counting on is that the cold air doesn't advect fast which is typical climo for these, also accounting for snow melting when it hits the ground as it begins as well.

 

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We're seeing support for significant moisture behind the front across the board when it comes to models (at least for eastern areas). Can it all be wrong? Maybe, climo is a force to be reckoned with. Perhaps someone could provide some insight?

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