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About wxrjm

  • Birthday 07/28/1993

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  • Location:
    Hampton,VA- Tri-Cities, TN
  • Interests
    Aviation, Weather, Tornadoes, NASCAR

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  1. I think the SPC Day 4 came out after MRX's morning discussion. Euro/GFS don't seem too crazy about CAPE, but we've seen that happen before then the NAM comes along and starts to pinpoint the higher risk zones.
  2. Our thoughts- some of the higher totals towards the higher elevations in the range. Not sold on the Euro, as I think we'll have near freezing temps BUT if we get a nice period of moderate snow, it could accumulate nicely in spots.
  3. I was a little surprised to see the wording from MRX too on Sunday, but it's warranted. I bet we see some area of 30% hatched in the enhanced tomorrow if SPC follows their trend. Just for fun- Time to play find the PDS TOR sounding. Mountain City, TN (1st sounding) from the 0z NAM4. Second sounding is KTRI from SHARpY. Most are just TOR soundings. Hodographs and wind profiles have my thinking QLCS with embedded circulations possible. At least the timing is nice for this one. For once a front isn't coming through at 2-5am..
  4. CIPS Guidance from this morning suggesting a wind threat over a discrete supercell threat (hail/TOR). Looks like a decent setup for a squall line.
  5. A storm of so much potential but much disappointment for many.. If only it was nighttime the entire time. We'd actually see some nice snow.
  6. Had some on/off snow through the afternoon in Bristol. Mix at times as we've gone into the afternoon. If precip rates are heavy enough it's been snow.
  7. If this is a current radar image from the Hurricane Hunters then this thing looks weaker than most cold fronts that move through our area nowadays. ASCAT impressive but perhaps over-estimating.
  8. Insert generic "every storm is different" comment here. It's a crapshoot.
  9. Someone correct me if I'm wrong but i don't think an updated track comes out on intermediate advisories- only the full ones at 11/5...
  10. Interesting ensemble plot that @MJVentrice posted on Twitter this morning. Basically putting all the Euro Ensemble members together. Real question in my mind is how well does it survive the shear. Already taking a toll on the system in reference to the convection being displaced to the south as 10-20kts of shear impacts it from the north.