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BlunderStorm

11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event

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........NE TN has been placed in the WWA area........

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1032 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019

...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...

.A strong cold front will push through overnight, with rain
showers mixing with and changing to snow before tapering off and
ending Tuesday. Some light snow accumulations can be expected,
especially across the higher elevations.

TNZ015>017-042-044-046-121200-
/O.EXA.KMRX.WW.Y.0006.191112T0900Z-191112T1700Z/
Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Northwest Greene-Washington-
Northwest Carter-
Including the cities of Evanston, Sneedville, Treadway,
Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam,
Greeneville, Johnson City, and Elizabethton
1032 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Tennessee.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to noon EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$
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Just absolutely pouring rain right now. I always hate the hours waiting on a changeover, using up QPF. 

Wouldn't be shocked to see it fall apart here as shown on some modeling and see it redevelop over the eastern areas. Looks ragged downstream in the cold, without that enhancement on the front the far eastern areas look like they might get, I'm thinking maybe 1/2 inch for me. 

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5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Friend of mine in Lexington Tn, NE of Jackson said an hour ago they had snow and 30 degrees. Seems like temps are falling lower than I expected.

 

Edit: he just told me schools are closing in Jackson. He wasn’t expecting to get anything more than a few flakes.

 

.

It's a potent from. My area is modeled to be around 23 by day break. 

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MRX now saying mods are showing an enhancement of snow in the morning for the valley and they might add Knox and a few others to the WWA. They upped totals in the valley. Seems like IMO they just wanted to wait until it seemed probable that the mods were on to what has been shown for the last 24 hours.


.

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Comparing current temps in Crossville to the 18z Euro meteogram, the front looks to be about an hour ahead of schedule. Question now is does the moisture back over MS fill in and pivot to the north as modeled.

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Quote

Tonight

Rain before 2am, then snow. Patchy fog after 2am. Low around 24. West wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

 

This had said accumulation near 1 inch before the grid refresh. 

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Since my temp started falling the wind has also really picked up in a big way. Raining leaves occasionally from out of the woods around my house.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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Honestly a very hard call for MRX south of 40, looking at the RAP/HRRR soundings, they support snow falling in the valley but the surface temps are between 33-35. Going to be hard to get much to stick unless we can hit the 32 mark quicker.

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Honestly a very hard call for MRX south of 40, looking at the RAP/HRRR soundings, they support snow falling in the valley but the surface temps are between 33-35. Going to be hard to get much to stick unless we can hit the 32 mark quicker.

I’m north of 40 about 10ish miles up 75


.

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6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


I’m north of 40 about 10ish miles up 75


.

If it plays out like those two models, think ridges in the valley roughly around 1000' and above will have the better chance at accumulation.

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