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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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Anyone keeping an eye on this potent Miller B Nor'Easter this week?  Latest runs have the secondary low bombing to 971 just off the coast of Maine.  Looks like a couple of very raw, rainy, and windy days on tap for us.  Before it transitions we get a hefty thump of rain too.  i think the highest peaks of New Hampshire and Vermont might get some significant snows. 

It's fun to have some active weather to track.  We are officially into "interesting weather mode" for the next 7 months.  

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Equilibrium levels up around 20k!  

There will be a brief break in the rain following the cold front.
Later Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night deeper wrap around
moisture will arrive as the strong mid level closed low crosses the
eastern Great Lakes and heads into New England. The wrap around
moisture and forcing from the mid level trough will produce a few
scattered showers Wednesday night. More importantly, deepening cold
air will support growing lake induced instability. Flow may be
sheared initially, but should align better from the WNW later
Wednesday night as lake induced equilibrium levels rise to 15-20K
feet. This will support a robust lake response east and southeast of
the lakes, with rain showers becoming widespread. Deep moisture and
lift extending up through the graupel growth zone may support some
thunder as well.
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Front load the Bills home games early in the season they said... No one wants to travel to Buffalo for a snow game in December they said...

GFS fantasy land says think again... Maybe... ???

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The storm lurking around day 7 absolutely goes off the charts every few runs.  18z today was no exception.  If a track like that ever verified at this time of year there would be some extreme tree damage from winds.  Just a textbook track.

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10 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

The storm lurking around day 7 absolutely goes off the charts every few runs.  18z today was no exception.  If a track like that ever verified at this time of year there would be some extreme tree damage from winds.  Just a textbook track.

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Hopefully the leaves are off by then if this happens!

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1 hour ago, vortmax said:

Hopefully the leaves are off by then if this happens!

One of these days were going to get a storm like this and all of these standing dead ash are going to come down. I had three come down during last falls long duration event, plus a huge cherry :(

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Add the cold biased NAM to a very powerful storm with a period of strong dynamic cooling and some models are hinting at a high peaks dump!  

 37A23A99-409D-47BE-9D1D-580AB7C1EEF8.thumb.jpeg.ca4dce884102870f3be60e7cf82d97a5.jpeg

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Ok...fresh off my phone being repaired during the last 5 days, I ask you all...why is the chatter on this site not exploding with what the models have been showing the past 5 days?!?!?! All 3 models are really coming into focus on a huge cold dump after/around the 24th and it has been consistent...im not certain that it will snow or anything organized but the cold will be there in the timeframe through Halloween at least...sign of things to come or just an early surprise???

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Ok...fresh off my phone being repaired during the last 5 days, I ask you all...why is the chatter on this site not exploding with what the models have been showing the past 5 days?!?!?! All 3 models are really coming into focus on a huge cold dump after/around the 24th and it has been consistent...im not certain that it will snow or anything organized but the cold will be there in the timeframe through Halloween at least...sign of things to come or just an early surprise???


Trying to stay reserved so early into the season. Certainly looks interesting but the details are all over the place. I will however get a TINY bit excited that the GFS has held the idea our first possible LES event for two consecutive runs now today. Bring this out of fantasy range and then it’s game on!

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Hello again to all.  Just back from a few weeks in western and central Europe, where the weather was changeable and generally similar to here.  It's that time of year and won't be long now before flakes are flying.  IIRC, a weak/neutral ENSO winter usually provides good winter results in upstate NY.

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Pretty decent lake response off Erie already. In and out of some heavy downpours with these cells. Meh...

 

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Hmm what the heck can’t seem to get these GIFs uploading into animation today.

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Lake band really getting its act together, I don’t remember models really showing this well organized a band of lake effect. Really coming down in West Seneca, really windy too. Definitely feels like fall now! 

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Lake band really getting its act together, I don’t remember models really showing this well organized a band of lake effect. Really coming down in West Seneca, really windy too. Definitely feels like fall now! 


Looks like this will be the last shot coming on shore over the next hour. Winds are quickly turning WNW near Long Point. Models noted a brief cellular band into the metro... to quick of an event to really verify.

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5 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Hello again to all.  Just back from a few weeks in western and central Europe, where the weather was changeable and generally similar to here.  It's that time of year and won't be long now before flakes are flying.  IIRC, a weak/neutral ENSO winter usually provides good winter results in upstate NY.

Hey there, neighbor. Looking forward to talking winter weather!

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2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Hey there, neighbor. Looking forward to talking winter weather!

I see you moved south! Yes we are not far apart.  It's almost time to start praying for WNW flow. ;)

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Decent banding with the coastal, has same banding signature as several major snowstorms in past years (Oneonta to Herkimer area).

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hey there syrmax..looking into relocating in phoenix...is the phoenix area more comparable to fulton or clay (route 31 corridor) when it comes to lake effect snowfall.. i know its sandwiched right in between the two as the transient town from which route 481 connects them i just didnt know what your experience has been like living in clay vs phoenix and in relation to fulton....didnt know if that wnw lake band that desposits over fulton usually extend down into phoenix most of the time during the 2-3 ft lake storms that fulton receives from time to time??

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