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Upstate/Eastern New York


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12 minutes ago, tim123 said:

How much is euro. Is it any good at lake snow resolution.

I just got a subscription to weathermodels.com . It is only $12.99 a month which is half the cost of other model subscription sites such as tropicaltidbits or wxbell. It's graphics are fantastic and has all the models you could think of including the Euro, high res Euro (which only goes out to 90hrs but has a 06/18z suite), EPS, and Long Range Euro (47 days). I love how you can also chose your exact geographic region too so you can see every little detail even on global models which you obviously can't see when your looking at a view of the entire CONUS or even NE US. Below I've attached a 2m temp forecast from the GFS zoomed in to the NY region to show detail compared to a zoomed out view. To me it's well worth the price and even more. Excited to use it when we actually have some real snow to track! 

IMG_0656.PNG

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The latest Euro is similar to the Canadian suggesting a further
west and slower solution to the mid to late week storm system.
These solutions hang back the upper level energy longer the GFS.
The Euro is also stronger with the associated low than the
other models. With so much uncertainty, at this stage of the
forecast will lean toward continuity which has followed the
slower Euro more closely. But with that said, there is plenty
of uncertainty in the Wednesday through Friday time frame with
several different outcomes that could occur, including lake
effect precipitation and snow.
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That Friday storm is still looking fierce and gaining quite a bit of support among numerous models.  There would definitely be some damage from that storm track.  It also ushers in the first flakes for most everyone.  Almost in range to start believing it could happen.  :popcorn:

Also, the Bills game will be quite windy tomorrow.  Should basically remove the kicking game and hinder the pass game.  I hope Singletary and Gore can run a good ground game.  

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Lots of really strong signals showing up in the first part of November and beyond as the PV looks to be in a potential split by the middle of the month. CPC discusses the AO going negative after this week and possibly staying neutral negative through mud month...if this appears correct then the week or two leading up to Thanksgiving COULD be interesting around here, synoptically or lake effect.

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Lots of really strong signals showing up in the first part of November and beyond as the PV looks to be in a potential split by the middle of the month. CPC discusses the AO going negative after this week and possibly staying neutral negative through mud month...if this appears correct then the week or two leading up to Thanksgiving COULD be interesting around here, synoptically or lake effect.

image.png.32718dad8ec2c0cf672b2e5b63e11ae3.png

image.png.6164c54111635e21b1ac9781b11995e3.pngimage.png.03dc9dcfdb9e141a29c0c5b0be2610d4.png

 

 

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Initially...the relatively dry nature of the colder air will probably
only result in a limited lake response east of the lakes Friday night
into early Saturday. After that time...an increase in background
moisture associated with the approach and passage of a surface trough
(and attendant upper level trough axis) should result in the activity
becoming at least somewhat better organized for the Saturday-Sunday
time frame. While wind directions and consequent lake effect placement
remain difficult to pin down this far out in advance...during this
36 hour period...generally backing flow out ahead of the trough should
send the activity northward to areas northeast of the lakes Saturday...
with veering winds in its wake shunting the activity back south to the
traditional lake effect areas east of the lakes Saturday night and
Sunday.

The most likely time for lake effect showers is Saturday night
into Sunday morning, with the increase in moisture from the
shortwave. Temperatures will be marginally cold enough to
support snow, with accumulating snows possible in this time
frame. Although many spots may see the first snow flakes of the
season, any accumulation is likely to be confined to higher
terrain inland from the lakes.
this period will feature mainly dry weather
and temperatures averaging solidly below normal...with daytime highs
in the 40s and nighttime lows ranging in the lower to mid 30s.
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