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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

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This looks much more reasonable with your highest gust over your typical areas to the NE of the lake on a SW wind and in the 70-80mph range instead of 90+ mph gust over CNY. Even if this were to verify it would be a very significant wind event. I remember the high wind event last winter (can't remember exactly when, maybe January?) and there was 75 mph gust across Erie and Niagara Counties and there was quite a bit of damage. There's still quite a bit of leaves on the trees at least a cross the lower elevations of the Niagara Frontier and I'm doubtful they'll be almost all off around here. Definitely worth keeping an eye on. 

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This looks much more reasonable with your highest gust over your typical areas to the NE of the lake on a SW wind and in the 70-80mph range instead of 90+ mph gust over CNY. Even if this were to verify it would be a very significant wind event. I remember the high wind event last winter (can't remember exactly when, maybe January?) and there was 75 mph gust across Erie and Niagara Counties and there was quite a bit of damage. There's still quite a bit of leaves on the trees at least a cross the lower elevations of the Niagara Frontier and I'm doubtful they'll be almost all off around here. Definitely worth keeping an eye on. 


Storm this past winter was Feb 24. Port Colborne gusted to 79mph. Can anyone who has Euro access see how deep it bombs out this storm once it’s up over Ontario? Has it down sub 980 over northern Michigan in the cheap skate version. But yeah if we see winds like that with trees still mostly full in the lake plains on top of some very wet soil with all the recent rain will be some big problems.
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17 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 


Storm this past winter was Feb 24. Port Colborne gusted to 79mph. Can anyone who has Euro access see how deep it bombs out this storm once it’s up over Ontario? Has it down sub 980 over northern Michigan in the cheap skate version. But yeah if we see winds like that with trees still mostly full in the lake plains on top of some very wet soil with all the recent rain will be some big problems.
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Thank you! Just bought model subscription today since we are now at least getting close to interesting weather.

 

12z gets it down to a minimum of 978 over Michigan/Lake Superior before slowly weakening as it pulls NE, high res wind maps show widespread gust of 60+ mph throughout most of this forum. 

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12 minutes ago, tim123 said:

How much is euro. Is it any good at lake snow resolution.

I just got a subscription to weathermodels.com . It is only $12.99 a month which is half the cost of other model subscription sites such as tropicaltidbits or wxbell. It's graphics are fantastic and has all the models you could think of including the Euro, high res Euro (which only goes out to 90hrs but has a 06/18z suite), EPS, and Long Range Euro (47 days). I love how you can also chose your exact geographic region too so you can see every little detail even on global models which you obviously can't see when your looking at a view of the entire CONUS or even NE US. Below I've attached a 2m temp forecast from the GFS zoomed in to the NY region to show detail compared to a zoomed out view. To me it's well worth the price and even more. Excited to use it when we actually have some real snow to track! 

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4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I moved from weather bell to weather models.com last year, I think this year I'll try truewx which is 12.99 as well..

 

Never heard of truewx.... just looked at their page and it looks decent. Please let us know how it is if you try it. 

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Outside shot at double digit rain this month..

So far 6.04" has fallen this month..

Wpc has another 3"-4" of liquid over the next 6/7 days from 2 separate rain makers..

 

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In-laws are coming up from jersey on the 9th of November, they absolutely hate cold and snow, usually they only come up in the spring/summer..U know what I'm rooting for lol

 

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The latest Euro is similar to the Canadian suggesting a further
west and slower solution to the mid to late week storm system.
These solutions hang back the upper level energy longer the GFS.
The Euro is also stronger with the associated low than the
other models. With so much uncertainty, at this stage of the
forecast will lean toward continuity which has followed the
slower Euro more closely. But with that said, there is plenty
of uncertainty in the Wednesday through Friday time frame with
several different outcomes that could occur, including lake
effect precipitation and snow.
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That Friday storm is still looking fierce and gaining quite a bit of support among numerous models.  There would definitely be some damage from that storm track.  It also ushers in the first flakes for most everyone.  Almost in range to start believing it could happen.  :popcorn:

Also, the Bills game will be quite windy tomorrow.  Should basically remove the kicking game and hinder the pass game.  I hope Singletary and Gore can run a good ground game.  

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Lots of really strong signals showing up in the first part of November and beyond as the PV looks to be in a potential split by the middle of the month. CPC discusses the AO going negative after this week and possibly staying neutral negative through mud month...if this appears correct then the week or two leading up to Thanksgiving COULD be interesting around here, synoptically or lake effect.

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Lots of really strong signals showing up in the first part of November and beyond as the PV looks to be in a potential split by the middle of the month. CPC discusses the AO going negative after this week and possibly staying neutral negative through mud month...if this appears correct then the week or two leading up to Thanksgiving COULD be interesting around here, synoptically or lake effect.

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Depening low pressure is forecast to pass by to our northwest and potentially bring a round of high winds to our area Thursday night and Friday. A high wind watch has thus been issued for much of far western New York and Jefferson county.

 

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This week will start pleasant, with above normal temperatures through Tuesday. A strong storm system late this week will bring rain, strong winds and much cooler air that could support some snowflakes over the higher terrain Friday night and into Saturday. 

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