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wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread

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Only 2.0F on the hill. -3F at CON. Maybe we can run the table on the winter above 0F now. We should clear January based on guidance. Still a long way to go to get through Feb though.

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I’m passing along a conditions update and a few shots from this weekend’s skiing at Bolton.  We were out on the backcountry network on Saturday, and then we went for lift-served skiing on Sunday.  Despite the fact that that the Mt. Mansfield Stake has hit 40” (a common threshold for most standard off piste skiing to be ready around here) and is getting close to average depth for this time of year, Bolton is lagging behind that benchmark a bit.  I think it’s because the thaw cycling hit them pretty hard in areas below 2,500’ or so – the base coverage down at those elevations seems like it was patchy after that last warm storm system.  The Timberline area covering the 1,500 – 2,500’ elevation band is only marginally open, and even Cobrass (which faces south in some key spots) off the summit wasn’t open.  We actually had some fantastic runs in the trees on Sunday, because some areas we encountered (like the Preacher Woods and Cobrass Woods) were in nice shape, but it’s still very inconsistent.  Areas that already had great base coverage offered fantastic turns this weekend thanks to the new snow, and areas that were borderline were pushed to that next level.  So the dense snow from Winter Storm Jacob was obviously a huge help, but I’d say they still need another inch or two of liquid equivalent to really get close to 100% open.

19JAN20B.jpg

19JAN20A.jpg

19JAN20C.jpg

 18JAN20D.jpg

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Yeah J.Spin... same thing at Stowe.  I would be very cautious under 2,500ft.  It's do-able and I felt pretty confident above that mid-mountain level, but lower down it's still tread lightly. 

A snowboarder got dragged out of the Notch by Stowe Mountain Rescue over the weekend after shattering his tibia on a rock.

I know I say it a lot, but I'm very happy we have one of the top technical rescue teams in the state right here in Stowe.  The local terrain and need for that sort of rescue makes for one heck of a municipal rescue team. 

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Figured I'd share the recovery efforts from Mother Nature after the big thaw.

At the High Road Plot at 3,000ft we recorded 23" of snow in the past week.  The Mansfield stake depth recovered 22" during that time (from 18" to 40").

I like to post these from time to time to show that yes, someone is actually measuring the snow in the mountains.

We started with 2" of dense stuff before the first storm that brought 12" (7" and 5") and then the second storm brought 9" on the level.

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Driving to Morrisville to get some stuff from NAPA Auto Parts and saw the NOAA techs checking in on the MVL ASOS. 

Keep doing God’s work and keep the observations coming, ha.

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A skier at Cannon needed to be evac-ed by helicopter to Dartmouth...

And I've seen so many ambulances respond to Bretton Woods this season..

Seems to be a tough season this year :(

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6 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

A skier at Cannon needed to be evac-ed by helicopter to Dartmouth...

And I've seen so many ambulances respond to Bretton Woods this season..

Seems to be a tough season this year :(

I don't think resorts resurface like they used to, it's all about saving $$. ski it if you can as they say.....

you also see more and more people just flat out bombing down the hill, no skill whatsoever, not sure what that's all about, maybe your favorite you tube skiing riding star always going big...

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Posted it in the main thread but probably belongs here instead.  

It's nearly 30F in Burlington this morning while it's low single digits in the RT 100 corridor on this side of the mountain.  Even in the 20s on the summits.

Look at that warm corridor on the VT side of the Lake where temps are 25-30F, while interior valleys and hollows are near zero in spots of NY/VT/NH.

Good luck trying to forecast these temp ranges.  Some 20-degree spreads even in very close proximity to each other.

mesoanalysisT.thumb.png.87df9e27c647e27d6879a3f0ac0f7af8.png

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4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Posted it in the main thread but probably belongs here instead.  

It's nearly 30F in Burlington this morning while it's low single digits in the RT 100 corridor on this side of the mountain.  Even in the 20s on the summits.

Look at that warm corridor on the VT side of the Lake where temps are 25-30F, while interior valleys and hollows are near zero in spots of NY/VT/NH.

Good luck trying to forecast these temp ranges.  Some 20-degree spreads even in very close proximity to each other.

mesoanalysisT.thumb.png.87df9e27c647e27d6879a3f0ac0f7af8.png

Was there any differences in cloud cover?  Last evening we had thin overcast but it was enough to make temps hang around 20 thru 10 PM when I stopped looking.  When I left home at 6:45 this morning it was mostly clear and zero or a bit below.

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Actually warmer here (41F) than CON (38F) this afternoon...rare, especially for this time of year. Very little mixing under the high today...just enough for here, but not enough in time for the rad pits.

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4 hours ago, tamarack said:

Was there any differences in cloud cover?  Last evening we had thin overcast but it was enough to make temps hang around 20 thru 10 PM when I stopped looking.  When I left home at 6:45 this morning it was mostly clear and zero or a bit below.

Looks like they were clear most of the overnight, but had a light south wind funneling up the CPV which is a death knell for BTV radiating.

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 I'm very confused by this coming storm. P&C has all snow, AmWx has bridge- jumping and rain to Quebec, AFD says freezing rain or sleet... Essentially anything is possible? :yikes:

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A light breeze and mixed skies are keeping the temp up in the upper 20s. Hopefully we don't have the bottom fall out again overnight or at least mi casa is above the inversion. MET/MAV for CON are 10F and 11F for CON tomorrow morning, but ECM MOS is much warmer at 21F. It'll be interesting to see which side is closer. 27F there are of 00z.

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59 minutes ago, alex said:

 I'm very confused by this coming storm. P&C has all snow, AmWx has bridge- jumping and rain to Quebec, AFD says freezing rain or sleet... Essentially anything is possible? :yikes:

You downslope on strong E flow, right?

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Most interesting part of the day was seeing what looked like wood smoke, stuck under an inversion in the lower elevations as late as noontime.  It was like summer-time fog elevation right in the immediate river valleys.  That look of smoke going up and hitting a short ceiling is pretty cool to see at midday.

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8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Most interesting part of the day was seeing what looked like wood smoke, stuck under an inversion in the lower elevations as late as noontime.  It was like summer-time fog elevation right in the immediate river valleys.  That look of smoke going up and hitting a short ceiling is pretty cool to see at midday.

Same deal here. Lots of trapped haze just north of CON on my way home yesterday. It cleared up as I got home, but the smoke made it my way before I cooped the birds up in the evening.

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12 hours ago, dendrite said:

A light breeze and mixed skies are keeping the temp up in the upper 20s. Hopefully we don't have the bottom fall out again overnight or at least mi casa is above the inversion. MET/MAV for CON are 10F and 11F for CON tomorrow morning, but ECM MOS is much warmer at 21F. It'll be interesting to see which side is closer. 27F there are of 00z.

CON with 17F for a low. So I guess the EC was the closest, but a blend would've worked out better.

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3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Another rain weekend in Jan for NNE, I would think pretty rare

 Somewhat rare for all rain ..especially if one is in NW VT on E slope of greens but Mid Maine coast probably sees several cutters every met winter  

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Gorgeous  day in The Woods, today. Smells like spring, temps pushing 40. Great weather conditions to pump gas in. Probably go buy a nice sexy toaster and jump off Upper Ammonoosuc Falls

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5 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Gorgeous  day in The Woods, today. Smells like spring, temps pushing 40. Great weather conditions to pump gas in. Probably go buy a nice sexy toaster and jump off Upper Ammonoosuc Falls

Get yourself into the Pemi watershed and we can daisy chain some toasters together and catch Dendrite on down into NE MA. 

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I got an alert yesterday from the BTV NWS that we’re under a Winter Weather Advisory in association with this next storm.  The advisory is for mixed precipitation, and presumably in place for any potential ice because snow accumulations are expected to be fairly minimal.  There is some additional snow expected on the back side of this system, but the current projected accumulations map only covers through 7:00 P.M. tomorrow, so it doesn’t include those potential accumulations.

25JAN20A.jpg

25JAN20B.jpg

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On 1/23/2020 at 10:01 PM, powderfreak said:

It’ll be a net gain in LE in the snow pack...and it could still be a net gain if the back end snow works out.  We just need to wait till the flow turns westerly and take our chances.

I’d noted your comment about the net gain for the snowpack, and indeed it looks like this system should be another net gain even down here in the valley.

I had time to core the snowpack this morning here at our site to get an idea of where it stands, and found that it currently contains 1.69” of liquid.  I checked on the NOHRSC modeling for our site, and the modeling’s done quite well over the past 12 days since I last did a snowpack core.  Their modeled value for snowpack SWE at our site today was ~1.63” of liquid before I put in my data this morning, which is just a few % difference from the actual analysis and I’m sure easily within the variability in my sampling.  We’ve had over 18 inches of snowfall and 1.26” of liquid during that intervening period, and the modeling really incorporated that into the snowpack well.

I just refreshed the NOHRSC snow depth/SWE/snow density modeling plot for our site, and I’ve added it below.  I was surprised to see that they’ve already incorporated (or at least plotted) my data from this morning (the most recent SWE and snow depth points), so that was quick.  The modeling indicates that the snowpack is expected to go up to ~2” SWE, then drop back down a bit to the 1.8” to 1.9” range.  The modeling doesn’t yet go out to incorporate any backside snows, so we’ll see how that plays out.  If it turns out to be the typical backside type of snow it will potentially add a bit of SWE to the snowpack, but it’s usually more notable for adding snow depth.

25JAN20C.jpg

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22 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 Somewhat rare for all rain ..especially if one is in NW VT on E slope of greens but Mid Maine coast probably sees several cutters every met winter  

I doubt it’s all rain though.  Wet snow/ZR for the higher terrain is my bet.  Won’t crack freezing up high on east slope.

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My poor weather app has no idea what the heck is going on. It has snow icons for tonigh/tomorrow, but the text reads: rain with snow likely

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