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janetjanet998

7-19 Severe outbreak MN into upper MI

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guys, something to think about here. there's the OshKosh Air show starting this weekend (a private pilot friend of mine is driving from SE PA to there as we type). I have to wonder, from what we are seeing on radar, how many small planes have already flew their way in for that show, and how much damage could this mean to the airport ahead of that air show?

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI  
857 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHERN WAUPACA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...  
  NORTHWESTERN OUTAGAMIE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...  
  WESTERN SHAWANO COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...  
  
* UNTIL 930 PM CDT.  
  
* AT 856 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF  
  WITTENBERG, OR 22 MILES NORTHEAST OF STEVENS POINT, MOVING EAST AT  
  50 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. AT 830PM A TORNADO   
           DESTROYED A BARN IN KNOWLTON.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  CLINTONVILLE AND EMBARRASS AROUND 920 PM CDT.  
  NAVARINO WILDLIFE AREA AROUND 930 PM CDT.  

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6 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said:

guys, something to think about here. there's the OshKosh Air show starting this weekend (a private pilot friend of mine is driving from SE PA to there as we type). I have to wonder, from what we are seeing on radar, how many small planes have already flew their way in for that show, and how much damage could this mean to the airport ahead of that air show?

Tomorrow and Sunday are the big fly in days.  I believe you can arrive as early as yesterday (I arrived on Wed. in 94 assisting a flight school vendor).  Like any other airport if they would get raked by 70 80 mph winds or even a tornado there could be damage especially with all of the vendor displays setup.  But on the other hand they are very very organized (no matter what it seems like on youtube lol) and very prepared.  There's a dedicated NWS website for the airport up right now and pilots are pointed to it in the NOTAM.  I certainly wouldn't have flown in today with the forecast that was out this morning.  These guys are flying mostly light aircraft under VFR conditions so they should be in the habit of checking weather to avoid violating the law.  On another note tomorrow and Sunday could be really busy and exciting, nothing funner than flying into the busiest airport in the world on a busy day. :D

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Just now, Jackstraw said:

Tomorrow and Sunday are the big fly in days.  I believe you can arrive as early as yesterday (I arrived on Wed. in 94 assisting a flight school vendor).  Like any other airport if they would get raked by 70 80 mph winds or even a tornado there could be damage especially with all of the vendor displays setup.  But on the other hand they are very very organized (no matter what it seems like on youtube lol) and very prepared.  There's a dedicated NWS website for the airport up right now and pilots are pointed to it in the NOTAM.  I certainly wouldn't have flown in today with the forecast that was out this morning.  These guys are flying mostly light aircraft under VFR conditions so they should be in the habit of checking weather to avoid violating the law.  On another note tomorrow and Sunday could be really busy and exciting, nothing funner than flying into the busiest airport in the world on a busy day. :D

ok, just being sure they won't get massacred ahead of one of their biggest events of the year, especially with a friend of mine driving in and maybe not kept up perfectly with what's going on (didn't ask me before departing).

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New STWatch expected shortly in Michigan - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1534.html

Mesoscale Discussion 1534
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0911 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

   Areas affected...portions of northern and central lower MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 200211Z - 200345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat is expected to continue downstream of
   WW 525 into portions of lower MI. A new severe thunderstorm watch is
   expected in the next hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...An intense bow echo continues to rapidly shift
   east/southeast across northern WI this evening. Latest track
   information brings the bow across Lake Michigan around 04z. A very
   unstable airmass remains downstream of the bow, with temperatures
   still in the 80s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s across much
   of northern and central lower MI this evening. A southwesterly low
   level jet of 40-50 kt is being sampled by regional VWPs and
   effective shear greater than 40 kts will continue to stream across
   the upper Great Lakes region overnight. Furthermore, a well-defined
   rear inflow jet is noted in KGRB 88-D data. An unconfirmed measured
   80 mph wind gust along with numerous reports of damage have occurred
   with the most intense portion of the bow, now moving across Oconto
   and Marinette Counties in northeast WI. Given the favorable
   environmental parameters and the organized nature of the ongoing
   bow, expect the threat will continue downstream into portions of
   lower MI and a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in
   the next hour or so.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 07/20/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...

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You can see the effects of the cap with the struggle for the line to push south now.  It may well break apart entirely as it starts to stall over Central Wisconsin.

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Be interesting to see how far south this gets.  S MI has some steep lapse rates going on.  The western flank is stronger and further south than I thought it would be.

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Just had to do a screen grab of this before it was gone.

Vegeta what does the scouter say about his power level?

 

4R9YmMe.png

 

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43 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Be interesting to see how far south this gets.  S MI has some steep lapse rates going on.  The western flank is stronger and further south than I thought it would be.

Yeah, it held together even better on the west side of the lake, especially given the warm temps in the upper atmosphere.  Looks like we're going to get some good storms for an hour or so.

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6 hours ago, Stebo said:

Yeah I would probably split the difference, it could do a hard right once it gets across the lake though with the storm motion.

Grand rapids got hit pretty good 69mph gust at he airport. With the likely clearing later this morning and continued oppressive heat/humidity it isn't a good time for a metro area to have lots of possible power outages.

Consumers energy has 120,000 without power in west mi currently while Detroit Edison had 50000 from earlier storms around metro detriot

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10 hours ago, Jim Marusak said:

guys, something to think about here. there's the OshKosh Air show starting this weekend (a private pilot friend of mine is driving from SE PA to there as we type). I have to wonder, from what we are seeing on radar, how many small planes have already flew their way in for that show, and how much damage could this mean to the airport ahead of that air show?

https://www.eaa.org/airventure/eaa-airventure-news-and-multimedia/eaa-airventure-webcams/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=73424B0E16414774A6AF336DECC455B9&_z=z

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On 7/20/2019 at 2:30 AM, outflow said:

Grand rapids got hit pretty good 69mph gust at he airport. With the likely clearing later this morning and continued oppressive heat/humidity it isn't a good time for a metro area to have lots of possible power outages.

Consumers energy has 120,000 without power in west mi currently while Detroit Edison had 50000 from earlier storms around metro detriot

I can vouch for that.  It was nasty on Saturday with no power!  We went out and went from store to stay in air conditioning.  Sleeping was a little uncomfortable Sat. night.  We were fortunate to only go 34 hours without power.  I have friends that they are saying Wednesday before they get theirs back.

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