Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    kgottwald
    Newest Member
    kgottwald
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
NJwx85

May 23rd Severe Event

Recommended Posts

The squall line that ripped through the mid West last night is currently entering Western NY and Western PA and should be here in about 6-8 hours. As the trough digs Southeast, it will interact with the warm moist air coming in from the SW and a strengthening LLJ. In addition, we could see some discrete convection out ahead of the main line or even late tonight after it passes. Although the main threat is straight line wind damage, some areas could see some large hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

SPC has placed most of the area in a risk for severe thunderstorms. 

day1otlk_1300.gif?1558620183538

 

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Clearing looks better than I expected in PA. I couldn't tell you how many severe outbreaks fizzled growing up there because the sun decided not to make an appearance.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First watch of the day up for Western NY and NW PA until 2PM Eastern.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not getting my hopes up, all I ask is for a decent strong storm. 

Skies are still cloudy by me.

Sun's popping out after a heavy shower. Severe in May is pretty rare anyway

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think we have a pretty good shot at an organized MCS heading through the region today. I would think something similar to last May. Obviously there will be differences in Intensity in any given area. 

One thing is for certain, storms will weaken as soon as they hit the city and marine influence. Luckily I’ll be on the uws for this one with 360 degree views of the entire city. I’ll post pics later 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Getting some sun on Long Island, perhaps we can get muster up a weak rumble of thunder later.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Sun's popping out after a heavy shower. Severe in May is pretty rare anyway

We had tornadoes and insane straight line winds just over a year ago. The damage is still evident all around the area. I'd rather not go through that again.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

the initial line looks garden variety out of the Binghamton radar...

The only warning is west of Baltimore 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All of the instability is behind the initial squall line. We need this to get out of the way for the main show later today, if it ends up arriving in time.

sbcp.gif?1558637462420

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Timing seems off.  By the time this line of crap gets out of the way, you have rain cooled air and loss of daytime heating....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Brian5671 said:

Timing seems off.  By the time this line of crap gets out of the way, you have rain cooled air and loss of daytime heating....

It clears out rapidly once the squall line passes. The environment over most of PA is very favorable for super cells with strong shear and enough instability to get the job done. Limiting factor this far East is that the storm motion looks to be more NW to SE.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NJwx85 said:

It clears out rapidly once the squall line passes. The environment over most of PA is very favorable for super cells with strong shear and enough instability to get the job done. Limiting factor this far East is that the storm motion looks to be more NW to SE.

It will be interesting to see if the RGEM solution is right-really pounds eastern PA and parts of NJ especially S of NYC

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It will be interesting to see if the RGEM solution is right-really pounds eastern PA and parts of NJ especially S of NYC

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11.png

It's already way off on the timing. It's currently 1903z and the graphics don't match up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It will be interesting to see if the RGEM solution is right-really pounds eastern PA and parts of NJ especially S of NYC

 

it makes no sense. It doesn't even have the squall line over eastern PA right now

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Doesn't look like today's going to pan out. The squall line looks thin and meaningless and anything that develops behind that is going to be too late.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RGEM/HRDPS aren't the first models I'd use for severe weather. Then again, the NAM and HRRR haven't exactly been killing it with the plains outbreaks recently.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

it makes no sense. It doesn't even have the squall line over eastern PA right now

Squall line is stretching it.  Ten lightning strikes on my Weatherflow in the past hour.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

it makes no sense. It doesn't even have the squall line over eastern PA right now

i can't find any models that do

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i'll take this over most of the garbage we get during the warm season 

DIX.N0Q.20190523.1918.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Timing seems off.  By the time this line of crap gets out of the way, you have rain cooled air and loss of daytime heating....

Yeah, this threats cooked

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Squall line is stretching it.  Ten lightning strikes on my Weatherflow in the past hour.  

yeah just meaning it has nothing right now

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The main threat has always been for what's coming after this line. Let things play out. It's almost June. We can get severe storms at 3AM this time of year.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×