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Bubbler86

Central PA Spring/Summer 2019

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15 minutes ago, Newman said:

Really the only wild card seems to be how well we recover from this morning rain and cloud cover for todays severe threat. Mount Holly continues to become more and more concerned on their 8am update:

 

Additionally, given the fairly
quick movement of the line of showers/storms, concern continues
to increase that the post-storm environment will quickly
recover/destabilize to support a potentially significant severe
threat this afternoon/evening, especially south of I-78.

Clouds are already thinning with partial sun here and it's only 9:30am. Should be a lot of juice added to the fire...

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Clouds are already thinning with partial sun here and it's only 9:30am. Should be a lot of juice added to the fire...

could get interesting

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How many times has the SPC put us under Enhanced risk in one year? Because we're under it again later today. Though 2 of the other times we got lucky and it turned into no shows. I'm wondering how lucky we can get. I love severe weather but definitely not a fan of tornadoes if they effect anyone. Had one tear some trees down last year in my backyard.

 

image.png.75fcc3d668f2aef924facf6f7e6c0318.png

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MUH2LRu.gif

 

 SEL4

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 274
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   145 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Western New Jersey
     Extreme east central Ohio
     Pennsylvania
     The extreme northern West Virginia Panhandle

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
     1000 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 2 inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorm development is expected this
   afternoon from Ohio into Pennsylvania, and storms will spread
   generally eastward through this evening.  The storm environment will
   be favorable for supercells capable of producing large hail and
   damaging winds.  A more favorable environment for tornadoes is
   expected across northern and eastern Pennsylvania into western New
   Jersey as the low levels destabilize.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Franklin
   PA to 35 miles north northeast of Trenton NJ. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 272...WW 273...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
   storm motion vector 29035.

   ...Thompson

 

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Just now, meatwad said:

MUH2LRu.gif

 

 SEL4

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 274
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   145 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Western New Jersey
     Extreme east central Ohio
     Pennsylvania
     The extreme northern West Virginia Panhandle

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
     1000 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 2 inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorm development is expected this
   afternoon from Ohio into Pennsylvania, and storms will spread
   generally eastward through this evening.  The storm environment will
   be favorable for supercells capable of producing large hail and
   damaging winds.  A more favorable environment for tornadoes is
   expected across northern and eastern Pennsylvania into western New
   Jersey as the low levels destabilize.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Franklin
   PA to 35 miles north northeast of Trenton NJ. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 272...WW 273...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
   storm motion vector 29035.

   ...Thompson

 

Can't ever recall a red box that was more inclusive to PA, period. 

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Its about to explode .its all comeing together now. the sun has been in and out here for the last few hours . 
 
 

Fuel for the storms is building.


.

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Just now, Atomixwx said:

 There was a brief shower and now the sun is out. Hopefully it supercharges the atmosphere.

We have been cooking over here for a few hours now and I am close enough to you that my lift is your lift. Its over shooting tops for for you today my friend

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Wow, a near state-wide tornado watch just issued for PA. 

59 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Still overcast in Wertzville. Not feeling it today.

I think things will clear out more in the Sus Valley as we get into the later afternoon, which is evident on satellite. Mesoanalysis is showing pretty big CAPE already advected into the western and central counties.. on the order of >3000 j/kg (surface based). A lot of mesoanalysis parameters look fairly impressive for this neck of the woods. The combination of the large CAPE and modest helicity has 0-1km EHI numbers >1 and in the 2-4 range (most in northern PA attm) over a big portion of central/western PA. That in itself is a solid indicator of a tornadic threat from thunderstorms today. 

Pretty high bulk shear numbers and bulk richardson numbers (BRN) in the 10-45 range over a good portion of central PA would suggest cellular and supercells as the dominant storm mode today vs lines or clusters. Large hail is also a notable threat as well given the large CAPE. There is definitely high potential for a pretty significant severe outbreak late this afternoon. 

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4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I think things will clear out more in the Sus Valley as we get into the later afternoon. 

We're there now lol

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The hail threat today across PA is not going to be one to overlook! Already a storm warned for baseball sized hail:

Destructive, baseball-size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph.

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 keep an eye on birds of pray flight patterns and how exposed the underside of the foliage is on the tallest trees  to know if you are in an area strong lift today if the tree canopy is light green and the foliage   upside down and pointing up get in side or move. If birds of pray are in the area doing circles and not flapping there wings your in a hot spot.

 

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