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powderfreak

NNE Warm Season Thread

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Checking on this afternoon’s forecast discussion from the BTV NWS, they’re suggesting 4-6” tonight along the ridgelines, with some additional accumulations tomorrow.  The Mansfield point forecast suggests 6-10” through Wednesday.  There’s also a Winter Weather Advisory up in NNH for this upcoming event.  Some related text and images are below:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Burlington VT

331 PM EDT Mon May 13 2019

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

As of 331 PM EDT Monday...While a few showers are possible this afternoon across Vermont, it won`t be until later this evening when better deep layer moisture associated with the developing coastal low will spread precip across the remainder of the forecast area. The forecast for tonight then features widespread rain in the valleys, but cooler air working in aloft from the east will lower snow levels down towards 1500 feet by Tuesday morning supporting a rain/snow mix mid-slope and all snow across the high peaks. Feel that 1500-2500 feet might see a dusting to an inch of accumulation, while the ridgetops 4-6" looks good.

13MAY19A.jpg

13MAY19B.jpg

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Whiteface in the Adirondacks had deformation delight and got 30-36" in that Memorial Day Weekend storm.  

IMG_3170.thumb.JPG.924b6f449c90a1b446cf42a398993963.JPG

Wow, Nice

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Wow, Nice

Good upslope there on prolonged NE flow under a deform band.  Air coming out of the flat Northern Champlain Valley ran into 5,000ft peaks and they got like 4" of QPF on the upper mountain. 

I remember some runs had the low moving further north turning winds to NW from NE, which would've favored VT but. It stalled too far south keeping NE winds going for a long time.

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A buddy posted this on social media from Sunday on Mansfield.

The Toll Road cuts through the snowpack there on the upper reaches is still pretty deep!

60237621_10214565774640410_6267768048476

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35 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

That really is amazing for May 26th.  The tree damage must have been huge.  Few sloppy inches is one thing but 3 feet!  

That three feel of accumulation wasn’t at valley level, it was well up in elevation.  I don’t recall hearing much about damage during that event, certainly around here in VT.  On Mt. Mansfield the snow line was around 2,100’ when I was there.  Here’s the accumulation profile with respect to elevation that I found:

1,600’:  0”

1,800’:  Trace

 2,100’:  1”

2,200’:  2”

2,500’:  4”

2,600’:  5”

3,000’:  8”

3,300’:  10” – 12”-15”

It’s possible that they had some tree issues over in the Adirondacks, but above 2,500’ or so, and certainly above 3,000’, the accumulations are almost irrelevant with respect to the trees – at any time of year.  The trees are essentially all evergreens that are built to take on any sort of snowfall at any time of year without issues.

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21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

A buddy posted this on social media from Sunday on Mansfield.

The Toll Road cuts through the snowpack there on the upper reaches is still pretty deep!

60237621_10214565774640410_6267768048476

Well, that’s some of the base for any new snow that might fall with this next event.

hashtagnice.jpg

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7 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Might even be mixing now near JSpin's on I-89 in Waterbury... precip looking streaky on the cam but long exposure.  This is low elevation...well under 1,000ft.  IMG_3182.JPG.f0f37edc7e22b76456b1403b45ff6c95.JPG

Yeah, I checked when I saw your post and we certainly had some mixing down here in the valley bottom.  Once we got down into the mid-30s F with that level of precipitation intensity it was kind of hard not to.  There’s no accumulation down here this morning, but we picked up 0.58” of liquid and I put down a trace of frozen to account for the mix.  I just checked the mountains though, and you can see fresh accumulations all the way down to the base at the local resorts via the Stowe webcams, Sugarbush webcams, MRG webcams, and Bolton webcam.

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

Yeah, I checked when I saw your post and we certainly had some mixing down here in the valley bottom.  Once we got down into the mid-30s F with that level of precipitation intensity it was kind of hard not to.  There’s no accumulation down here this morning, but we picked up 0.58” of liquid and I put down a trace of frozen to account for the mix.  I just checked the mountains though, and you can see fresh accumulations all the way down to the base at the local resorts via the Stowe webcams, Sugarbush webcams, MRG webcams, and Bolton webcam.

Yeah we had wet non accumulating snow at 5am in Stowe when I got up.  

Driving up Mtn Road, like 1 out of every 5 cars had some white on them haha.  First found snow accumulations on grass near the Toll Road base (as is often the case) at 1,200-1,300ft and maybe a half inch at 1,500ft.  I drove to 1,800ft on Spruce and found about 1.5".  

Big snow gradient on the trees around 2,000ft.

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1"-1.5" at my house, which sets at 1250'.  Looks like a little less over at the golf course which is at 810'

IMG_1423.jpeg

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13 hours ago, J.Spin said:

That three feel of accumulation wasn’t at valley level, it was well up in elevation.  I don’t recall hearing much about damage during that event, certainly around here in VT.  On Mt. Mansfield the snow line was around 2,100’ when I was there.  Here’s the accumulation profile with respect to elevation that I found:

1,600’:  0”

1,800’:  Trace

 2,100’:  1”

2,200’:  2”

2,500’:  4”

2,600’:  5”

3,000’:  8”

3,300’:  10” – 12”-15”

It’s possible that they had some tree issues over in the Adirondacks, but above 2,500’ or so, and certainly above 3,000’, the accumulations are almost irrelevant with respect to the trees – at any time of year.  The trees are essentially all evergreens that are built to take on any sort of snowfall at any time of year without issues.

Yeah, there was about 3.5" at the bottom of Superstar, 8-12" at the top of the chair, and a hike up to the summit had me knee deep in spots.  Unforgettable day for sure.

kmart3.png

kmart5.png

kmart2.png

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Got low 40s RA from that one - typical.  Same today, only it's upper 30s.  Saw some catpaws and "almost-flakes" coming over Mile Hill on the way in, only Maine report of accumulation was 0.1" in Temple, and I found out that cocorahs site is above 1200'.  Numerous 3-5" reports from VT cocorahs.

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An inch for us.  Fortunately, nothing stuck on the driveway.

IMG_0846 resize.jpg

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After checking out the accumulations on the various mountain webcams this morning, I decided to head to Mt. Mansfield for a ski tour.  I hadn’t seen any obvious differences in accumulations at the various resorts from the webcams, so I opted for Stowe because they seemed to have the most substantial existing snowpack right down to the base elevations.

Temperatures were in the upper 30s F in the mountain valleys, and mid-30s F at the resort base.  By the time I got out on my tour, the snow level was certainly rising relative to its lowest point overnight or this morning when there were more optimal temperatures and snowfall rates.  New snow accumulations certainly varied depending on the surface, with the best accumulations and retention were found atop the existing snowpack.

I headed up in the North Slope area, and continued past the Fourrunner Quad Summit and up the Toll Road past the Mt. Mansfield Stake to the Mansfield Summit Station at around 3,850’.  Precipitation was snow at all elevations on my ascent, and it was fairly light for the most part until I got to the Summit Station along the Mansfield ridgeline.  While I was hanging out there refueling and changing over for the descent, the intensity of the snowfall ramped up somewhat, with lots of tiny flakes at first.  Eventually though, the snowfall picked up to a pounding of much larger flakes.  There was definitely a lot of liquid coming out of the sky at that point, and my Gore-Tex was getting a workout.

The big jump in accumulations really seemed to happen between 2,000’ and 3,000’.  Above 3,000’ I didn’t really see too much with respect to additional accumulation, so presumably temperatures were sufficient down to 3,000’ to maximize the snow from the available moisture right from the get go yesterday.

Here’s the elevation profile for the accumulations I found this morning:

500’:  0”

1,000’:  0”

1,300’:  T

1,500’: ½”

2,000’:  1”

2,300’:  3-4”

2,500’:  5”

2,700’:  6”

3,000’:  7-8”

3,500’:  8”

3,850’:  8”

The amount of dense snow up high meant that you had plenty of cushion for some nice powder turns.  Of course, the density also meant that the snow was Sierra Cement/Cascade Concrete and you had your work cut out for you with respect to getting those powder turns.  It is mid-May though, so even dense powder turns this time of year are always a treat.

I’ve added some shots from today’s tour below:

14MAY19B.jpg

14MAY19C.jpg

14MAY19D.jpg

14MAY19G.jpg

14MAY19E.jpg

14MAY19A.jpg

14MAY19F.jpg

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3 hours ago, J.Spin said:

After checking out the accumulations on the various mountain webcams this morning, I decided to head to Mt. Mansfield for a ski tour.  I hadn’t seen any obvious differences in accumulations at the various resorts from the webcams, so I opted for Stowe because they seemed to have the most substantial existing snowpack right down to the base elevations.

Temperatures were in the upper 30s F in the mountain valleys, and mid-30s F at the resort base.  By the time I got out on my tour, the snow level was certainly rising relative to its lowest point overnight or this morning when there were more optimal temperatures and snowfall rates.  New snow accumulations certainly varied depending on the surface, with the best accumulations and retention were found atop the existing snowpack.

I headed up in the North Slope area, and continued past the Fourrunner Quad Summit and up the Toll Road past the Mt. Mansfield Stake to the Mansfield Summit Station at around 3,850’.  Precipitation was snow at all elevations on my ascent, and it was fairly light for the most part until I got to the Summit Station along the Mansfield ridgeline.  While I was hanging out there refueling and changing over for the descent, the intensity of the snowfall ramped up somewhat, with lots of tiny flakes at first.  Eventually though, the snowfall picked up to a pounding of much larger flakes.  There was definitely a lot of liquid coming out of the sky at that point, and my Gore-Tex was getting a workout.

The big jump in accumulations really seemed to happen between 2,000’ and 3,000’.  Above 3,000’ I didn’t really see too much with respect to additional accumulation, so presumably temperatures were sufficient down to 3,000’ to maximized the snow from the available moisture right from the get go yesterday.

Here’s the elevation profile for the accumulations I found this morning:

500’:  0”

1,000’:  0”

1,300’:  T

1,500’: ½”

2,000’:  1”

2,300’:  3-4”

2,500’:  5”

2,700’:  6”

3,000’:  7-8”

3,500’:  8”

3,850’:  8”

The amount of dense snow up high meant that you had plenty of cushion for some nice powder turns.  Of course, the density also meant that the snow was Sierra Cement/Cascade Concrete and you had your work cut out for you with respect to getting those powder turns.  It is mid-May though, so even dense powder turns this time of year are always a treat.

I’ve added some shots from today’s tour below:

14MAY19B.jpg

14MAY19C.jpg

14MAY19D.jpg

14MAY19G.jpg

14MAY19E.jpg

14MAY19A.jpg

14MAY19F.jpg

Wow nice, is this you?

IMG_20190514_194854.jpg

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3 hours ago, J.Spin said:

14MAY19E.jpg

I love this, dude! 

I mean that could be January with a 5-foot snowpack right there and fresh snow on everything.

One of the best photos of the Stake set-up I've seen in a while.

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So that photo, J.Spin, looks like 5 feet? 

Yesterday's climate report shows 47".  But there's no reading on this evening's climo report... wonder why?  But there's no way a foot of snow fell either?

Wonder if it's the angle of the camera there being high and looking down on it that gave it 47" yesterday?

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15 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wow nice, is this you?

IMG_20190514_194854.jpg

I responded in the main thread but I’ll add it here in the interest of this discussion.  Although it wasn’t me (I had a green jacket on yesterday) I was in that exact spot at one point during my tour.  It’s a cool shot though – I’d guess it was taken in coordination with a friend, but the photographer could have just gotten lucky to catch somebody in that window.

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15 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I love this, dude! 

I mean that could be January with a 5-foot snowpack right there and fresh snow on everything.

Yeah, it’s so wintry up there right now, with some great pack still remaining for this part of May.  On that exact note, another skier had dropped right off into one of the steep chutes in that area across the road from the stake.  You know how steep those chutes are there that drop in toward Bypass, with plenty of underlying debris beneath the snowpack, so that really speaks to the coverage.  I guess we’ll just have to make do if this is the sort of stuff we have to deal with in the current climate regime that everyone talks about here in the forum.

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15 hours ago, powderfreak said:

So that photo, J.Spin, looks like 5 feet? 

Yesterday's climate report shows 47".  But there's no reading on this evening's climo report... wonder why?  But there's no way a foot of snow fell either?

Wonder if it's the angle of the camera there being high and looking down on it that gave it 47" yesterday?

I’ve got a zoomed in shot of the stake below for reference.  It’s got to be tough to stay consistent with readings this time of year as the depression around the stake builds with all the freeze/thaw cycles.  They have to be looking down into the depression to be reporting numbers below five feet at this point.

I deal with that issue all winter with my own stake in the yard, and if it’s melted out deeply enough I’ll sometimes just have to backfill in snow to level the depression with the rest of the snowpack or else measurement can become a real headache when the next round of snow falls.  It’s frustrating because of course the depression in the pack is only artificially created by the presence of the stake to begin with.  I always look straight on at the stake at snowpack level to try to mitigate the issue.  What I want is an infinitely thin measurement stake that has no effect on the surrounding snowpack so I don’t have to deal with it all winter.  I am thinking of making my stake white, and much thinner to try to minimize all that melting if possible.

14MAY19H.jpg

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

Yeah, it’s so wintry up there right now, with some great pack still remaining for this part of May.  On that exact note, another skier had dropped right off into one of the steep chutes in that area across the road from the stake.  You know how steep those chutes are there that drop in toward Bypass, with plenty of underlying debris beneath the snowpack, so that really speaks to the coverage.  I guess we’ll just have to make do if this is the sort of stuff we have to deal with in the current climate regime that everyone talks about here in the forum.

Yeah dropping in on those chutes above Bypass is pretty rugged.  Takes a healthy pack to get through there.  That's incredible.  There will definitely still be a snowpack up there when the Toll Road opens for Memorial Day weekend.  

That 5 foot mark is historically hit in early to mid February, too.  That scene in your photo could be like President's Weekend in a normal winter.

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2 hours ago, J.Spin said:

I’ve got a zoomed in shot of the stake below for reference.  It’s got to be tough to stay consistent with readings this time of year as the depression around the stake builds with all the freeze/thaw cycles.  They have to be looking down into the depression to be reporting numbers below five feet at this point.

I deal with that issue all winter with my own stake in the yard, and if it’s melted out deeply enough I’ll sometimes just have to backfill in snow to level the depression with the rest of the snowpack or else measurement can become a real headache when the next round of snow falls.  It’s frustrating because of course the depression in the pack is only artificially created by the presence of the stake to begin with.  I always look straight on at the stake at snowpack level to try to mitigate the issue.  What I want is an infinitely thin measurement stake that has no effect on the surrounding snowpack so I don’t have to deal with it all winter.  I am thinking of making my stake white, and much thinner to try to minimize all that melting if possible.

That (the bolded) is my method to get an accurate measurement.  However, I don't try to fill in the melt/sublime pit around the stake.  I plant it in the fall on the most level part of the garden, which varies from year to year by what crops were grown, and it's 25' or so from the cleared path to the shed.  Getting into shovel reach means snowshoes, and I make pretty deep hol;es in a non-glacial pack - would rather not make a bunch of large foot-deep impressions just a couple yards from the stake if I don't have to.   My stake is white with black markings, but made from a 2-by-4 so not exactly thin.
 

I guess we’ll just have to make do if this is the sort of stuff we have to deal with in the current climate regime that everyone talks about here in the forum.

I've just distilled some snow/temp data for an informational paper I'm doing on climate change effects on forest management.  I have model info for the Northeast but wanted to be Maine-centric, and chose CAR for the north, Rangeley for the western mountains, and Farmington for a lower elevation site still close to the landbase we manage.  I may toss the cold/snowy 60s and 70s because they stand out even in a 125-year record like that at Farmington - snowfall 15% higher than in any other full decade and coldest DJF and DJFM temps of any decade.  Here's what I've found:

Farmington (1893-on) 
Snowfall: very close to 90"/yr except for 106" in 60s/70s.   Max depth locked in at near 30" except 35-36 for 60s-70s.
Snowpack retention (records start 1940):  Cover 1"+ for recent decades down 3% from 40s-50s.
Temps (DJF and DJFM, the period for frozen-ground logging):  Significant rise this century, about 2F above 80s-90s and early 20th century.

Caribou (1940-on)
Snowfall:  About a 5% increase this century compared to 40s-50s.  However, max depth is down about 5" for the most recent 20 years.  (However, I wonder if there's a difference in how snow gets blown around compared to earlier years.  The 14" blizzard of late Jan 1977 added 14" to their depth, while storms of 13" and 14" in march 2008 each added just 4".)
Snowpack retention:  Cover 1"+ down 5-6% for the 21st century. 
Temps:  Significant rise this century, about 2F above 80s-90s and early 20th century.

Rangeley (1961-on, so no earlier check.  Also, have not parsed their temp data.)
Snowfall:  Last 10 winters (119.7") same as 1961-on (119.8")   Greatest depth 2000-on is 2" above 1961-on.
Snowpack retention:  21st century 1"+ cover 2% higher than 1961-on.

Conclusion:  Little to no effect on snowfall and top depth, slight eroding of 1"+ duration, 21st century winter temp 2F above previous, probably due to more frequent/milder thaws. 

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Green up finally in process.  We are about at 20-40% with small leaves.   Looking at the hills it is so apparent that even the littlest elevation makes a difference.  Things should move rapidly now,  Memorial Day weekend is next weekend and all the flatlanders will be coming up expecting it to look like summer.

Drone shot of the house with Newfound Lake in the background that was taken today and another shot of the house that was taken yesterday.

house drone.jpg

spring.jpg

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Got back last night from a Mexico and Orlando trip. Glad that I missed this nonsense. I was hoping to have some more green by now, still nothing though at least the daffodils are up and the forstythia is sporting its usual 4 flowers on the lowest branch. Yippee. I'm soooo ready for summer. 

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14 hours ago, alex said:

Got back last night from a Mexico and Orlando trip. Glad that I missed this nonsense. I was hoping to have some more green by now, still nothing though at least the daffodils are up and the forstythia is sporting its usual 4 flowers on the lowest branch. Yippee. I'm soooo ready for summer. 

Everything is late.  Better greenup by Memorial Day weekend only 7 days away.  Warmer and more humid weather coming so things should really move along.  The White Mountains have their deflector shields on today.  Downsloping is giving me 100% blue skies while you are clouded in on the other side.  

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More clouds than sun here but flirting with 60 so still a decent day.  Blackflies made their appearance, and one took a bite.  Can't remember ever getting bit on the 1st day before - usually they flit around checking the menu for 2-3 days before chowing down.

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Nice Backedge.  Looks beautiful down there.

Bit more clouds up this way... the snow pack level is retreating up the slopes. 

Mountains still largely look like "stick season" though some light green is starting to head up to the lower slopes.

2L8A7953_edited-2.thumb.jpg.4d95a3e08fb173271a0983ab437b529e.jpg

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