Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,514
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Raifu
    Newest Member
    Raifu
    Joined
Tallis Rockwell

Severe storms and flash flooding for May 7-13

Recommended Posts

day8prob.gif?1556978045986

 Large-scale pattern will become seasonally favorable for organized
   severe during the upcoming medium-range period. Severe
   thunderstorms, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
   are expected across a substantial portion of the CONUS during the
   day4-6 time frame.

   Latest model guidance continues to suggest a pronounced upper trough
   will eject across the lower CO River Valley into the southern
   Rockies during the day4 period...central/southern Plains day5...and
   Midwest day6. Southern extent of dominant surface anticyclone should
   stall across KS and an extensive moist warm sector is expected to
   eventually materialize across the southern Plains/lower MS Valley
   into MO ahead of this ejecting short wave. While it seems likely
   that organized severe will spread from TX to the Midwest ahead of
   this feature, it's not entirely clear of the convective evolution
   each day. Day3 TX short wave will likely induce a substantial amount
   of precipitation that could/should disrupt northward advance of
   highest PW air mass to higher latitudes. Initially, most robust
   convection will be confined to the High Plains where steep lapse
   rates will contribute greatly to buoyancy. If the short wave timing
   is accurate, a more substantial severe event could unfold day5
   across the Plains. GFS/Canadian are more aggressive with surface low
   development across KS than the ECMWF which is weaker with the
   surface low Wednesday. Mid-level speed max will eject into the
   Midwest Thursday along with an attendant severe threat
.

Seems like a repeat of 2015168

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m sure one of the days will end up having better potential than the others for severe but with multiple days of convection each day will likely depend on the previous and makes it hard to pick one from this range. Definitely looks like a lot of rain for Texas especially.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wednesday (5/8) appears to have big-time potential per GFS. Several runs have suggested a high-end event could occur. Euro is relatively similar. 84hr NAM meanwhile shows a huge MCS across OK/KS at 12Z Wednesday... which could prove to be problematic. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, jojo762 said:

Wednesday (5/8) appears to have big-time potential per GFS. Several runs have suggested a high-end event could occur. Euro is relatively similar. 84hr NAM meanwhile shows a huge MCS across OK/KS at 12Z Wednesday... which could prove to be problematic. 

Ground is so saturated that an mcs could cause problems and flash floods... you saw what happened in Austin the other night. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, jojo762 said:

Wednesday (5/8) appears to have big-time potential per GFS. Several runs have suggested a high-end event could occur. Euro is relatively similar. 84hr NAM meanwhile shows a huge MCS across OK/KS at 12Z Wednesday... which could prove to be problematic. 

Looks like the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning crashing MCS idea seems to be gaining traction on the models. May wipe out or at least greatly reduce Wednesday's potential. 12z GFS shows the extensive overnight convection but has no impact on moisture fields which is highly suspect. I think the NAM may be more realistic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Looks like the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning crashing MCS idea seems to be gaining traction on the models. May wipe out or at least greatly reduce Wednesday's potential. 12z GFS shows the extensive overnight convection but has no impact on moisture fields which is highly suspect. I think the NAM may be more realistic.
Same crap, different year. I no longer look forward to spring the way I once did.

Always the same mantras.

"EPS says Week 3 will be lit."

"You don't need a synoptically evident outbreak to have a quality chase day."

Yeah, yeah but we've gone like 5 going on 6 straight Mays without one in the Central US. The models tease but the atmosphere largely doesn't deliver except for the occasional storm-of-the-day event.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tuesday looks like the best day in the Plains. Monday suffers from slightly rising heights and warm 700 mb. Wednesday LLJ forecasts point to the Midwest and Ozarks. Midwest is of course doable but LOL Ozarks.

Tuesday the LLJ points into the Plains triple point, and likely other intersecting boundaries after Monday. Also Tuesday winds upstairs are at adequate speeds and the correct direction. Appears moisture should be there, despite Texas activity. Helps the ground is already moist.

Looking ahead, finally the week 3 hype has progressed into week 2. May 15/16 to 20/22 could be quite active. That's going right into peak climo.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From a theromodynamic and moisture standpoint, Wednesday still looks good on the euro. Likewise, for those looking for a tornado outbreak, it looks pretty meh. As Jeff mentioned, LLJ will be displaced (and kinda weak) from the dryline/better instability. GFS still looks great, but it showing lingering convection in N TX having no effect on moisture quality is certainly questionable.... another setup bites the dust.

Tuesday should be great for chasers though. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Same crap, different year. I no longer look forward to spring the way I once did.

Always the same mantras.

"EPS says Week 3 will be lit."

"You don't need a synoptically evident outbreak to have a quality chase day."

Yeah, yeah but we've gone like 5 going on 6 straight Mays without one in the Central US. The models tease but the atmosphere largely doesn't deliver except for the occasional storm-of-the-day event.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 

Curious why that is? Seems the border of Alabama/MS has become the new hotspot. Activity has tightened up in that small corridor. 

Perhaps it’s due to heating in the Gulf? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Velocity scans are very impressive again after this storm cycled, this is going to yield incredible footage. 

Screenshot_2019-05-05-19-49-02.jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Large wedge tornado confirmed on Twitter on that monstrous cyclic supercell near Gail, TX. Several tornado warned supercells from central KS into Texas. 13 tornadoes thus far reported for the day on SPC's reports page, probably several more brief tornadoes. Impressive "surprise" day...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lots of warnings still out, this place is dead though.

Probably because it’s just a slight risk...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wichita KS
744 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern Reno County in south central Kansas...
  Southwestern Harvey County in south central Kansas...
  Southeastern Rice County in central Kansas...

* Until 830 PM CDT.

* At 741 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Nickerson,
  moving southeast at 25 mph. NWS meteorologists are also monitoring
  an area of rotation near South Hutchinson. Very strong wind gusts
  have also been reported with this storm that has a history of
  producing tornadoes.

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Emergency Management confirmed tornado.

Interesting text. These slow moving SE supercells are mint!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Probably because it’s just a slight risk...

Good point, usually mods or high is when it's hopping. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My count is 7 (or 8?) preliminary tornado reports northwest of Wichita, with ongoing tornado warnings north and south of Wichita

ypbZDsO.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The severe warned storm near the KS/OK border is showing '"> 4.0" inch hail at the moment. That's insane.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Probably worth noting that the 00z NAM has dramatically backed off the MCS on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Too bad it fails to matter much as low-level response during the afternoon and evening is mediocre.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

D2 and D3 ENH w/ sig hatching for Tues/Wed. If I didn't have prior commitments, Tuesday would be a slam dunk chase as it looks like a pretty high quality TX Panhandle day. Wednesday is more up on the air in terms of how much the cold front sinks south, prior convective influences, and also the degree to which the shortwave deamplifies as it ejects during the day. If wave timing is off, low level winds may veer, muting the threat.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Basing off of the outlook area and their discussion, SPC seems to be basing the majority of their forecast for Wednesday on the NAM solution. The NAM, as noted in a previous thread, was the best model by far for last Tuesday’s outbreak (4/30).

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Enhanced with sig tor probs for day 2

day2otlk_0600.gif?1557154754972

   Well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast is forecast to
   eject across the lower CO River basin into the southern Rockies by
   early evening Tuesday. Leading edge of large-scale forcing for
   ascent is expected to spread into the High Plains of NM/west TX
   shortly after peak heating. At the same time, a much weaker, but
   notable disturbance will eject across Mexico into deep south TX.
   This low-latitude feature should induce a coastal boundary and
   low-level warm advection will increase in response. It appears a
   substantial amount of convection will evolve across south TX into
   the middle/upper TX coastal region. This should temporarily slow
   northward advance of low-level moisture across east TX into eastern
   OK. Even so, adequate boundary-layer moisture should remain
   undisturbed across the southern High Plains where lower 60s surface
   dew points should hold east of a well-defined dry line, south of a
   synoptic front. While the synoptic front should contribute to
   convective development from the northern TX Panhandle to southeast
   KS, primary concern for organized severe will focus along the
   dryline near the TX/NM border. Strong surface heating is forecast by
   18z across eastern NM where temperatures should easily soar into the
   80s by early-mid afternoon. As a result, CINH should weaken by 21z
   and scattered supercells should easily develop within a strongly
   sheared environment. Forecast soundings for this region exhibit
   profiles that strongly favor supercells. Very large hail, in excess
   of 2", and tornadoes can be expected with this activity.
   Thunderstorm clusters should translate along/north of the synoptic
   front across the northern TX Panhandle into northwest
   OK/south-central KS during the overnight hours.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My prof canceled classes last Wednesday when DFW ended up under a severe storm watcb. Wonder what this Wednesday holds given its the last day of the semester to present?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, cheese007 said:

My prof canceled classes last Wednesday when DFW ended up under a severe storm watcb. Wonder what this Wednesday holds given its the last day of the semester to present?

You going to chase? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, J_Prothro said:

You going to chase? 

God I wish. I drive a convertible so unless something comes to my apartment probably not. Miss having a beater car to play around with

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×