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4/12/19 - 4/13/19 Dixie Alley Outbreak

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About the only thing that will stop this from being a epic day is storm mode getting cluttered.....too many storms to close together could keep things from getting to insane, still looks like there will be no shortage of tornados to track....

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...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the East Texas to lower Mississippi Valley region later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Central and northern Louisiana West-central Mississippi East Texas Southern Arkansas Western Alabama * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread damaging winds Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Tornadoes -- some potentially strong to violent (EF2+) -- are possible today from east Texas to central Mississippi. Otherwise, numerous severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes from central Texas this morning to the Tennessee Valley region overnight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

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A significant severe weather outbreak is likely this afternoon into early Sunday morning. Tornadoes are likely throughout the entire region with some strong and long track tornadoes possible. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be a significant threat as well. We advise everyone to stay weather aware this afternoon and overnight!
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8 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

About the only thing that will stop this from being a epic day is storm mode getting cluttered.....too many storms to close together could keep things from getting to insane, still looks like there will be no shortage of tornados to track....

Mentions of EF2+ and long trackers

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The forecast soundings for the LA area are insane, could be a few really nasty and unfortunately deadly tornadoes.. Tomorrow here in Atlanta we will get round one with the usual unfavorable timing of 15-18Z, then the cold front will re-fire but will there be enough instability for really significant severe, since the dynamics/shear are still very strong.

Screen Shot 2019-04-13 at 9.22.53 AM.png

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I've been looking at the GOES visible and infrared satellite imagery over Texas.   It looks very disturbing.   I only see this much wind shear except prior to an explosive severe weather event that includes multiple long tracked tornadoes.   The cluster of storms including the long tracked supercell that produced baseball size hail over Six Flags Fiesta Texas as it moved north of San Antonio is one to watch as it gets into the airmass more prompt for severe weather this afternoon. 

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Master's just updated schedule for tomorrow due to possible severe weather. Threesomes teeing off at 7:45 AM. CBS starts coverage at 9:00 AM. Trying to get ahead of the nasty weather.

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

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RAH keeping it real.....

A strong upper jet will lift on the
front side of trough, placing central NC in the favorable  right
entrance region by 06Z. Meanwhile the strong mid level jet on the
order of 80-90kts projected to cross our region overnight. Close to
the sfc, a stout sly flow will maintain a moist and warm atmosphere.
Anticipate an active line of t-storms to cross into the western
Piedmont between 01z and 04Z, reaching the highway 1 corridor around
06Z. While storms normally weaken overnight due to nocturnal
stabilization, these storms may actually increase in intensity after
midnight due to the available instability and the strong kinematic
field. This may set the stage for tornadic t-storms to occur
overnight, a potentially dangerous situation since most folks will
be asleep when the most active weather may be occurring.
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SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/... Main focus of course on severe threat Sunday from potent frontal system and attendant impressive upper dynamics. SPC continues to have Enhanced Risk across north GA and Slight elsewhere, though any location in CWA could have some scattered severe storms. The first most likely prefrontal round would be pushing into the northwest as early as 12z then proceed eastward. Impressive shear in both deep and low layers ramping up after 15z with upwards of 500 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH. This combined with rather ample CAPE in 1000-1500 J/kg range will bring a threat to not only damaging winds in any bowing segments, but also brief spin-up tornadoes. Sig Tor Param is rather high in multiple models also in the 2-4 range. There is potential for a second round of convection firing off later in the afternoon closer to the front and still east of the upper trough axis. Will need to watch this as if mid level lapse rates do steepen, there could be perhaps some hail potential with the storms. Regardless of the storms, there will be enhanced gradient winds out of the south to SW and with sustained of near 20 mph gusting up to 35 mph, have warranted a Wind Advisory area- wide through Sunday. Cooler temps building in for Sunday night as things clear out from the west and most areas will fall into the mid 40s. Baker

 

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LA/MS definitely escaped the worse of it. Those on going storms really saved the day. Which, I kinda figured that would happen, given the radar today. However, in someways I feel like tomorrow could be worse than today for GA and the Carolina’s. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 10% or maybe even 15% chance for tornadic storms tomorrow, especially if we get max daytime heating. Tomorrow could get ugly for many!


.

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Nam is still showing a nice little explosion of semi discrete cells over the piedmont and coastal plains of NC tomorrow. 

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Ridiculous dynamics setting up tomorrow over GA.  Saving grace MAY be timing.  I’m starting become more concerned about a morning round of nasty cells followed by a break and another shellacking in the afternoon for GA.  Carolinas looks like much less impressive dynamics but possible better heating.  Let’s hope everyone escapes the worst of it instead of all of us getting  shelled. Those streakers posted above look pretty horrendous, all Over the forum.  One nasty streak right over north metro ATL into SW NC. 

 

I’m honing in on NE GA to SW NC as the bullseye tomorrow for the worst storms in the forum tomorrow.  Let’s see how it plays out.  It’s fun to track despite the dangers. 

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The couplet and notch is tightening up with the storm over northern Tuscaloosa County.   NWS BMX office is watching this storm very closely because of the increase of the inflow

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The sky is red down here it's super creepy and weird.. But as long as we don't get any tornadoes I'm fine it can be polka dotted for all i care i feel terrible for those that have already lost loved ones in this crazy night. Ahh there goes my lawn chair..

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Suddenly North Georgia is down to a slight risk. Hope they’re right this time 

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Very impressive jet streak that will be screaming overtop the region today (upwards of 55-65kts), aiding in lift and shear parameters to sky rocket. Also allowing winds to translate down to the surface. Even though the danger exists gotta love these types of setups. 

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Looks like the balloon just went up...tornado watch issued for north Georgia until 2 PM. Glad I don't have to be out on the road today!

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The high-res models are all over the place with radar depiction.  HRRR, NAM, etc... all look different with timing of storms and/or discrete cells vs. lines.  

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Its a scary setup for NC over night......HRRR/NAM have cape over 1000 and STP values of 5-6 along the line of storms they show.....thats nothing but bad. The NAM sounding for central/eastern NC around the time it shows the line of storms crossing looks like this...1500 cape and SRH 400 m/s, and 1am to boot. 

1766445570_PGVsounding.thumb.png.2e176a40439504ae33d51f9028c1b1cd.png

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15 hours ago, calculus1 said:

Master's just updated schedule for tomorrow due to possible severe weather. Threesomes teeing off at 7:45 AM. CBS starts coverage at 9:00 AM. Trying to get ahead of the nasty weather.

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
 

Final group goes off at 9:20. It’s going to be close with bad weather approaching by 1-2pm.

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1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

Its a scary setup for NC over night......HRRR/NAM have cape over 1000 and STP values of 5-6 along the line of storms they show.....thats nothing but bad. The NAM sounding for central/eastern NC around the time it shows the line of storms crossing looks like this...1500 cape and SRH 400 m/s, and 1am to boot. 

1766445570_PGVsounding.thumb.png.2e176a40439504ae33d51f9028c1b1cd.png

Not saying you're wrong, but SPC says the threat should diminish after dark. Of course, that is all subject to change. Overnight storms are bad news. 

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28 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

Not saying you're wrong, but SPC says the threat should diminish after dark. Of course, that is all subject to change. Overnight storms are bad news. 

yeah, yesterday Raleigh was bullish with intensifying nighttime storms and the spc is going the opposite way saying it should diminish overnight. Gonna have to see how the dynamics unfold today. Getting a few peaks of sun here in the coastal plains.

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19 minutes ago, shaggy said:

yeah, yesterday Raleigh was bullish with intensifying nighttime storms and the spc is going the opposite way saying it should diminish overnight. Gonna have to see how the dynamics unfold today. Getting a few peaks of sun here in the coastal plains.

I wonder what changed. RAH did not mention intensifying nighttime storms today. But yeah, it's definitely a wait and see kind of day. I have also had some peaks of sunshine here as well. It's crazy how things can change, it was not even two days ago that it looked like N.GA would get hammered. And now it looks like they escaped the worst of it. Unless, a second line forms. 

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