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Dr. Dews

April Discussion

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Agreed ... and most machine -based numbers are likely too cool at this time range, given a Euro-esque synoptic evolution. 

I saw a bar-graph product with 52 F everywhere east of ALB with that look on Friday... it was almost like the model has an echo of today's plague super-imposed over a warmer look. interesting...

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18 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean those are basically the reasons right there. Models have broad high QPF biases in winter (QPF is typically much narrower than models depict) and modeled ratios are pretty routinely poor. Combine the two and it's easy to bust high on a snow forecast. 

I mean I can't argue that GYX has a high snowfall bias, the numbers bear that out season after season. In Eastern Region there are four offices that over a last season (17-18) had observed snow greater than forecast snow (three are in VA, the other DTX). GYX and BOX were pretty far and away the worst offenders for forecast > obs. 

LE yesterday was 0.52", if not a bullseye, at least it was in the black.  Mid-levels too mild for nice dendrites, so ratio of 7.6.  (This season has the lowest average ratio for snowfalls 2"+ of any I've measured.)  Make that ratio 10 or 12 and we'd have been right in the forecast range.

Another WVL visit - post op check went fine - before scooting from home to here in Augusta.  Roads home-WVL and back were worse than yesterday, with packed icy stuff.  Also, no flakes flying so folks were driving 10-15 mph faster than yesterday - seems like what's in the air is more important than what's on the road.  Temp struggling toward the freezing mark more than I'd expected; maybe affecting this evening's accumulation?
 

Doesn't look like the mtns did as well as frcst.

East was best.  Saw 6" from Belmont (just inland from Belfast) and 7" from Surry, plus a number of other +/-6" reports from east of Penobscot Bay.

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29.5F brightly overcast, ceiling just over my fanny at 1300 feet

Doesn't matter to anyone on these boards but maybe Alex and me in NH and the Maine guys but

GFS ticks colder.  850 0F line barely to my NE this afternoon,  925 is south.   

Maybe a burst of snow later this PM.  Just need my 1" to hit my 100"

Edit:  Snow grains have started 12pm

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26 minutes ago, tunafish said:

LOL @ OES right now in PWM in April while 200 miles west there's thunderstorms popping off.

Watching it snow in my cube. this weather is just dumb

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Another day of cold sleet mixed with rain in town.  

Straight up ZR at the ski resort.

I mean you can't come up with amore miserable day for April 9th than this at 1pm with freezing rain.

IMG_2827.thumb.JPG.343ede67f1e7675fd7e37c4322eb157f.JPG

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It's closing in on the blanket of shit ... 

Any takers on who wins? 

either this frontal slice about to cut in outta eastern NY/PA scours, or... it rides over top.  It's an interesting battle as the visible imagery clearly shows an active westward trajectory of polar/maritime air is unrelentingly piling this useless death cold saturation into the region, yet there is an equally defined eastward trajectory about to directly impinge into it...  

 

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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

30.4F  Moderate snow  vis 1/2 mile.  Crazy this is all below radar heavy echoes still in Vermont

Rain mixed with rock candy at 750ft here.  Like literally chunks of ice in the heavier echoes.  Just don't have the mid-level temps you guys do.

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10 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

30.4F  Light to Moderate snow  vis 1/2 mile.  Crazy this is all below radar heavy echoes still in Vermont

You may get some pretty wild conditions briefly in a couple of hours.

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13 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

30.4F  Light to Moderate snow  vis 1/2 mile.  Crazy this is all below radar heavy echoes still in Vermont

not even the same mechanics driving either ... 

You're likely generating some snow growth in the top of the inversion level...  Probably clear not more than 200 mb over head.

That stuff VT/NY is associate with synoptic wedge along the occluded/cold fropa..  When the two collocate you may actually produce both for a brief time but it's likely the column will just get disrupted - who knows what falls out of that stuff as it is residual comes through but if the top of the inversion and the bottom of that elevated instability are both below 0C it'll probably snow ..or even rarely, snow/hail mixture

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2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

oh brother:thumbsdown:

Savor it, Its probably the last of the year.

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3 minutes ago, klw said:

Moderate snow here in St. Johnsbvury at the moment

And back to sleet

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32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If the euro is right, everything rapidly melts starting this weekend. We flood.

Been noticing increasing occurrences of SE ridging in general ...at times more modest, but persistent positive heights from Texas to Bermuda and points S

a.k.a.... "se ridging"   ... sometimes more obvious than others but sometimes the ensuing seasons foundation sort of sets table that way.  Wondering about the summer if we start see that reloading at the base-line.  

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wow..no kidding... 

That D8-9 return bulge is actually 80s ....  real 80s.  Not just that Kevin kind.. 

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32.3° with light snow grains. Pretty wintry here on the hillside...looked more wet in town.

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