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wxeyeNH

March 10 2019 Snow to Mix Event

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15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Did the 18z Euro still look good?

Good snowy run for NNE through Tuesday morning...

xxZg89d.png

mYtsKiH.png

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I use discretion w who sees the warm tongue 

As you should, sometimes things can be moisture starved in the lower layers but the warm tongue can enhance qpf. 

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7 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm leaning decent front end thump for the interior RT 2 and North. 

Yes. Really liking the way the NAM thump (looks to be getting better) and the RGEM is with it.  Even down here we might sneak our way to 2-3" a couple hours before pelting. 

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Still still looks pretty meh on the NAM. 1 to maybe 3 I think at most in SNE before we cold rain. 

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Yeah NAM really isn’t backing down. GFS is cold up here, but keeps most of the lift in SNE. There’s some pretty good convection approaching the southern MS valley this morning so there should be plenty of mid/upper level latent heating today to our SW. 

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8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

06z Euro remains steady, 2-4" for most of SNE and 3-5" in CNE/NNE

I’ll sell the euro down here. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll sell the euro down here. 

I know the NAM is good with the tongue, but why sell the EURO so aggressively whilst it’s been pretty consistent with its depiction of this event?

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll sell the euro down here. 

There will be plenty of buyers

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1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

I know the NAM is good with the tongue, but why sell the EURO so aggressively whilst it’s been pretty consistent with its depiction of this event?

Because it can overdo numbers with this. Looks like 6z lowered numbers a tad. I think 1-3 covers it. Highest north.

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Maybe the Nam pulls one off in SNE but its basically on its own down there as far as how warm it gets aloft, We all warm at some point.

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I think initially it comes in with brief mod to heavy snow, but the numbers thrown around by the gfs are awfully high. We see this every time with these events. Weenies go for the high numbers when the lower to median ones verify. I don’t see many flags to role with high numbers. 

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The rgem makes sense. Comes in with a band of brief mod to heavy and then over to sleet. Mid level warmth held off a tad near NH border. Looks good to me. 

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Just now, dryslot said:

Maybe the Nam pulls one off in SNE but its basically on its own down there as far as how warm it gets aloft.

The further east you are down here the less the lift. It appears it will thump pretty hard for a couple of hrs especially in western central areas of all of SNE. Nice morning coffee mood stuff before it all goes to shit. Mud season awaits, we rejoice 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I think initially it comes in with brief mod to heavy snow, but the numbers thrown around by the gfs are awfully high. We see this every time with these events. Weenies go for the high numbers when the lower to median ones verify. I don’t see many flags to role with high numbers. 

but there will be enough snow to make things slick for a few hours region wide I think

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think initially it comes in with brief mod to heavy snow, but the numbers thrown around by the gfs are awfully high. We see this every time with these events. Weenies go for the high numbers when the lower to median ones verify. I don’t see many flags to role with high numbers. 

Lol you went low for 2 weeks and got burned so who is the weenie. Not saying this will but the taking the under way of forecasting is at the other end of weenie forecasting.  

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

The further east you are down here the less the lift. It appears it will thump pretty hard for a couple of hrs especially in western central areas of all of SNE. Nice morning coffee mood stuff before it all goes to shit. Mud season awaits, we rejoice 

West was best, And yes, The further east you go the less lift.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The rgem makes sense. Comes in with a band of brief mod to heavy and then over to sleet. Mid level warmth held off a tad near NH border. Looks good to me. 

This is why we wait now untiil now casting in these situations,  we toss, we take, as the model turns.....

 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol you went low for 2 weeks and got burned so who is the weenie. Not saying this will but the taking the under way of forecasting is at the other end of weenie forecasting.  

I havent seen anyone thrown warning numbers out lol,  Just a range.

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I’m not getting worked up over getting 1” vs 3”...this event is a nothingburger for most.  The Euro hasn’t been great during similar events this season until the very end.  But the NAM has been pretty poor in many respects, although I had thought it did well a couple of times.

Nowcast seems like a good idea.

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