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WEATHERMINATOR

March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

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Euro is flatter and east of 18z.

 

Still rainy for the coast but good improvements. 

 

Night everyone

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0Z EURO took another significant jump southeast. NYC is now half snow (front end) and half rain. 6Z NAM improved markedly...also snow to rain for NYC.

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Oh how I wish the models were right and stayed the course. 

Additionally, the timing would be really good (Sunday night - Monday morning) for March. 

Euro is wrong here every model has a snowstorm for us except the euro

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4 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Could anyone post a more detailed snow map for last GFS run?

 

0BE1D0BC-F956-4676-8C0B-5B2402922504.png

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This is a case where a fast, progressive flow is a good thing otherwise this would cut well inland. 

It's still a close call though, a lot can go wrong in 2-3 days.

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This is a case where a fast, progressive flow is a good thing otherwise this would cut well inland. 

It's still a close call though, a lot can go wrong in 2-3 days.

There is also ideal positioning of the PV as well as the first storm tonight flattening the flow slightly.  I think without tonight's storm this goes over top of us

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2 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

We can get our 4-8 out of this if it’s stays all snow. This is fun

4-8+ :weenie::weenie:

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The new mesoscale model runs are pushing tonight/tomorrow morning’s event further and further SE. Keep in mind there is a risk here of how this will affect Sunday night. Imagine Saturday blowing up into a major low offshore. Arctic drain from Quebec pours into it. Flattens the flow. Causes Canadian ULL suppression to push into the northeast, causing the Sunday night event to suppress/graze the area. This is now a risk

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6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new mesoscale model runs are pushing tonight/tomorrow morning’s event further and further SE. Keep in mind there is a risk here of how this will affect Sunday night. Imagine Saturday blowing up into a major low offshore. Arctic drain from Quebec pours into it. Flattens the flow. Causes Canadian ULL suppression to push into the northeast, causing the Sunday night event to suppress/graze the area. This is now a risk

It’s turned Sunday from a cutter/hugger to the almost ideal track for now on most models. Hopefully the models have keyed in on tomorrow’s system properly at this point and we see no more SE shifts for Sunday’s system, but still a possibility of course  

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new mesoscale model runs are pushing tonight/tomorrow morning’s event further and further SE. Keep in mind there is a risk here of how this will affect Sunday night. Imagine Saturday blowing up into a major low offshore. Arctic drain from Quebec pours into it. Flattens the flow. Causes Canadian ULL suppression to push into the northeast, causing the Sunday night event to suppress/graze the area. This is now a risk

So you went from saying that it was going to be all rain to now a concern about suppression. LMAO

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2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

So you went from saying that it was going to be all rain to now a concern about suppression. LMAO

It’s called a changing pattern. Yes, that was a risk a few days ago. Shortwaves and stream flows moved around. You do know weather changes and evolves right?

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