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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro is bad... and it's been trending that way consistently for several runs now.  Doesn't mean its right but hurts confidence.  The euro was over amplified with several systems the last 2 years though so there is that.  

Meh, it's Wednesday.  I'm honestly not shook about it.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Euro suppresses both the March 6 and 8 threat. We get a nice big rainstorm then a week of nice cold dry. 

what a whimpy way to end winter man...couldnt even get one I95 DC to Boston snow event. what a wretched winter

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Gave up on the whole thing?  Maybe that’s the boost we need lol. Haven’t read or watched him in days but I thought he was all in for a big east coast snowstorm next week. 

no just the sunday/mon. He thinks GFs is too far south

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18 minutes ago, Ji said:

no just the sunday/mon. He thinks GFs is too far south

 

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gave up on the whole thing?  Maybe that’s the boost we need lol. Haven’t read or watched him in days but I thought he was all in for a big east coast snowstorm next week. 

He thinks were zooming through the good mjo phases too fast.

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro is setting up a nice rainstorm day 10. 

I think I am ready for warm and nice weather, this winter has left an emotional scar on me. 

Seems we lost the blocking on top prior to the Moday rain, and then after that too much PV, whatever, why would we expect in March of all months for things to suddenly improve. 

If we had a moderate Nino, and a better PDO I bet we would have had a great March.

And yeah, I write this like March is over. But after a winter like this , its tough to be positive anymore. I mean I am below climo but I did gewt some snow.  

 

 

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Confluence to the north looked a bit better this run so there's that 

The orientation of the boundary keeps trending more SW to NE vs W to E. In essence the cold is hanging back more and not pressing east ahead of that wave. Part of that is the decreased spacing between waves. No time for the cold to press before the return flow ahead of the wave starts pushing back. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

The orientation of the boundary keeps trending more SW to NE vs W to E. In essence the cold is hanging back more and not pressing east ahead of that wave. Part of that is the decreased spacing between waves. No time for the cold to press before the return flow ahead of the wave starts pushing back. 

so the stronger the better with the Friday wave?  that still the case?

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3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

 

He thinks were zooming through the good mjo phases too fast.

So he cancelled his epic March 1-15 snow/cold blitz in the east he was still riding a few days ago?  Funny if he bails too soon again like in January when he is typically too stubborn although when he is going anti snow that’s usually a really bad sign. 

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

so the stronger the better with the Friday wave?  that still the case?

Well when we had a better cold push for Monday it was with a stronger cutter over the weekend yea. But I think the ship sailed on that. Even if the coastal amps up more I’m not sure a blocked system being forced east can create the kind of cold press the cutter in the lakes was.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The orientation of the boundary keeps trending more SW to NE vs W to E. In essence the cold is hanging back more and not pressing east ahead of that wave. Part of that is the decreased spacing between waves. No time for the cold to press before the return flow ahead of the wave starts pushing back. 

The whole set up looks different than it did a couple days ago. Not sure what to think. We could score  a big hit if the cold presses down enough. Someone will end up with double digits but that could be upstate ny.

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