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Central PA Feb/March 2019 Disco: More Snow In Our Future?


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Here is a "new" line for accumulating snows instead of the Turnpike or I-81...The Appalachian Trail!  For Friday night's event, SE of the AT will see greater accumulations than to the NW...but Sunday is a different story...either way, winter will not quit with lows close to "0" under clear skies and calm winds next week and snow covered grounds!  I have lived here all my life and without going through the official records, I remember only ONE time where temps in March went below "0" and that was with the passage of superstorm 1993! Not thinking it will this week...but it has a chance!

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3 minutes ago, Caveman said:

The NAM by 4 am tomorrow...I'm not so sure...

nam_3hr_snow_acc_harrisburg_4.png

It is doing this with forcing from the developing far off shore coastal so yea, we shall see.  MA talking about radar back edge but the edge will stop if the NAM depiction is correct....will actual pivot a bit.

 

Edit, though this map must be including sleet.  Cherry Hill NJ is probably not getting 4". 

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When I saw all of the precip with the Sterling radar, I immediately thought oh no for Sunday...that water vapor energy will translate away from our area.  

3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

It is doing this with forcing from the developing far off shore coastal so yea, we shall see.  MA talking about radar back edge but the edge will stop if the NAM depiction is correct....will actual pivot a bit.

 

Edit, though this map must be including sleet.  Cherry Hill NJ is probably not getting 4". 

Agree...the equations are simply for frozen precip...go K for rip/read...as for developing LP, seek the temp gradient...that's a shitload of precip across MD...love the meteo!

 

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In all honesty, I believe the snowfall rates will be hard pressed to reach what we did last night here between 2-3 am....it just flat out dumped snow...awesome!  My dogs went out and quickly came back to the house...and they are not snowflakes!

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8 minutes ago, Caveman said:

When I saw all of the precip with the Sterling radar, I immediately thought oh no for Sunday...that water vapor energy will translate away from our area.  

Agree...the equations are simply for frozen precip...go K for rip/read...as for developing LP, seek the temp gradient...that's a shitload of precip across MD...love the meteo!

 

Latest MESO Pressure maps show the low developing off shore east of VA Beach.  If there was any kind of blocking this would be a blockbuster event with cold air being dragged into the system while qpf is thrown back over us. 

 

image.png.b7679f130c91f8f27a33fd323a8e94cf.png

 

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Just now, bubbler86 said:

Latest MESO Pressure maps show the low developing off shore east of VA Beach.  If there was any kind of blocking this would be a blockbuster event with cold air being dragged into the system while qpf is thrown back over us. 

 

image.png.b7679f130c91f8f27a33fd323a8e94cf.png

 

What you describe is exactly what COULD occur Sunday...especially with height falls right over PA digging towards a deepening surface LP...but my concern is no HP north of us in realistic terms.  My forecast mantra; predict the high; predict he snow!  Isn't this fun?  Helluva lot better than Netflix or whatever people do today...I'm listening to kick ass tunes, reading you guys opines, and studying the models...since my dogs are now asleep...GOOD STUFF!  

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Can someone explain to me, how with no blocking, this Sunday stormis being pushed south? I have seen so many times where there is no blocking and the low tracks up to state college. I’ve also see. So many times that it gets suppressed because of strong blocking high pressure. In this case, there is no blocking, and the storm is consistently being modeled further and further south?

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1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

Can someone explain to me, how with no blocking, this Sunday stormis being pushed south? I have seen so many times where there is no blocking and the low tracks up to state college. I’ve also see. So many times that it gets suppressed because of strong blocking high pressure. In this case, there is no blocking, and the storm is consistently being modeled further and further south?

500 mb PV digging strong...

 

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10 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Can someone explain to me, how with no blocking, this Sunday stormis being pushed south? I have seen so many times where there is no blocking and the low tracks up to state college. I’ve also see. So many times that it gets suppressed because of strong blocking high pressure. In this case, there is no blocking, and the storm is consistently being modeled further and further south?

My interpretation is that there is confluence to the north where there actually is a high pressure albeit well west of where we would want it for a block so the Low is basically following the progressive zonal boundary. The further  that the boundary is pressed south, the further south the low goes. Check out this pic and notice the 1014 beside that weak 1007 Low.  Now I could be totally wrong so I am hoping Mag will fill in the holes from my thought.

 

 

image.png.8ce34240aa4e72247ef871a69b3093cf.png

 

 

 

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Just now, paweather said:

Fishy? I am not sure I understand I am talking about tonight. LOL maybe that it is heading that way to feed the fish. 

Your original post asked why the radar looked like CARP.  LOL.  I should not talk I have an issue with Chrome where it keeps turning off my spell check so I have to edit a lot of posts.  

Either the models are going to bust or that coastal is going to energize the radar starting in Maryland then heading Northeast over much of the LSV. 

 

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1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

Your original post asked why the radar looked like CARP.  LOL.  I should not talk I have an issue with Chrome where it keeps turning off my spell check so I have to edit a lot of posts.  

Either the models are going to bust or that coastal is going to energize the radar starting in Maryland then heading Northeast over much of the LSV. 

 

Rock and Roll!

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2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Your original post asked why the radar looked like CARP.  LOL.  I should not talk I have an issue with Chrome where it keeps turning off my spell check so I have to edit a lot of posts.  

Either the models are going to bust or that coastal is going to energize the radar starting in Maryland then heading Northeast over much of the LSV. 

 

Your good man. It does look like carp but who knows the nam is pumped up for Sunday. All good. 

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