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Danajames

February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

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9 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs is worst model for cad....its not useful once we get into high res range

The GFS is just killing the shortwave that triggers the WAA earlier.  The NAM/ICON do it too but much later.  The GFS is also not as strong with the SER so the disturbance tracks more south.  I would trust the NAM/ICON more for your area right now 

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Just now, PhineasC said:

GFS and Euro will not be showing what the NAM and ICON showed. Pretty basic stuff...

GFS is pretty lame north of DC, but the Euro has had some impressive runs lately.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

GFS and Euro will not be showing what the NAM and ICON showed. Pretty basic stuff...

You are always a ton of fun to have around. Apparently the FV-3 doesn't make a difference to you. 

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Just now, Fozz said:

GFS is pretty lame north of DC, but the Euro has had some impressive runs lately.

I don't know what he is talking about. The 12Z Euro showed 7" for us and then ice.

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Just now, ravensrule said:

I don't know what he is talking about. The 12Z Euro showed 7" for us and then ice.

Pretty sure the 18z Euro was just as good too.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

I am clearly talking about right now and not a run from 10 hours ago.

The 18Z Euro was 4 hours ago. You need to calm yourself. 

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16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Conversely, the FV3 is more typical of what one would expect.

Kuchera
CHO: 2.6” + 0.31” FRZA
DCA: 5.7” + 0.27” FRZA
FDK: 12.3” + 0.5” FRZA
BWI: 8.7” + 0.24” FRZA

Big differences.

OKV: 10.8" + 0.73" FZRA

Should we start working on the calculation for how much to reduce this model's totals when it goes live, the way we always did with the ETA/ NAM ?

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1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

You are always a ton of fun to have around. Apparently the FV-3 doesn't make a difference to you. 

I barely post. No clue why you have decided it's your job to police up the forum. If you want to throw a ton of weight behind the NAM, ICON, and horrid FV3, feel free to wax your shovel now.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

Nothing is "sealed" but since when are you buying the NAM and ICON?

I'm not, although we all know that the NAM handles CAD better as we get close in.  Just wondering why an unconfirmed run of the GFS means much right now.   If I had to bet, Euro would probably be closer to the GFS than the NAM/Icon...but imma wait until it runs.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

I barely post. No clue why you have decided it's your job to police up the forum. If you want to throw a ton of weight behind the NAM, ICON, and horrid FV3, feel free to wax your shovel now.

If 18,973 posts are barely posting, i would hate to see you actually start posting. 

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3 minutes ago, schinz said:
  • The NAM did well up this way with last week's event.  There is no recent to discount it here this week.

The NAM can be trusted beyond 48-60 if and only if it either agrees with the Euro/EPS and or consistently shows almost the same idea run to run.  If it changes notably at all from one run to the next in that range it’s generally out to lunch 

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1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

If 18,973 posts are barely posting, i would hate to see you actually start posting. 

And people wonder why Bob has left the forum for a bit (and others have just plain left)...smh We gotta do better than this, people!!

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8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Nothing is "sealed" but since when are you buying the NAM and ICON?

Did you not see stormtracker's post in regards to the ICON? We worship it now, and for good reason. 

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It’s only Sunday. A person of sound judgment would wait until tomorrow night when the solutions will likely be completely different. So really no reason to get worked up one way or the other as far as the result. Fun to track, but it could be a huge bust for many of us. 

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The GFS was fine. It’s handle on CAD is well known, so you have to adjust to compensate. Euro run is important to see how it handles the general Synoptics. NAM has been consistent and so has ICON/FV-3. I’m not an ICON fan at all, but consistency is always a plus. The front end thump is certainly still in play, but I’d be a little wary of the changeover to sleet/zr a little quicker than what is currently modeled once we close in on the event. Stronger CAD is helping a lot. Need that to remain. No matter how this evolves, a high impact event is increasingly likely. NW of the fall line will likely maintain 100% frozen in this setup.


.

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

If @Deck Picis around and posting, as he just did earlier... then you know there is potential for a nice storm.  Unless he says next ofc lol

I’m pretty bullish. But my expectations are different from some others. 

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

The GFS was fine. It’s handle on CAD is well known, so you have to adjust to compensate. Euro run is important to see how it handles the general Synoptics. NAM has been consistent and so has ICON/FV-3. I’m not an ICON fan at all, but consistency is always a plus. The front end thump is certainly still in play, but I’d be a little wary of the changeover to sleet/zr a little quicker than what is currently modeled once we close in on the event. Stronger CAD is helping a lot. Need that to remain. No matter how this evolves, a high impact event is increasingly likely. NW of the fall line will likely maintain 100% frozen in this setup.


.

Above 600’ NW of the cities could kill it. 

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27 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

OKV: 10.8" + 0.73" FZRA

Should we start working on the calculation for how much to reduce this model's totals when it goes live, the way we always did with the ETA/ NAM ?

It is just as wet as the nam. But it's got screwed up ratios. I am still sticking with 5-8 throughout the region with a coating of ice on top. That is just what our climo would say for events like this. 

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Above 600’ NW of the cities could kill it. 


No question. Areas along and west of MD 27 could see some Warning criteria snow, followed by a fair amount of sleet/ZR. The 81 corridor will be beyond ugly for travel on Wednesday.


.
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