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NEG NAO

February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

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5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Let me clarify, its drier when temps support frozen precip. That chart shows it perfectly. Not good regardless. 

Fair point - I hadn't analyzed the precip over time - I guess the big question is why the change after so many runs with mostly sleet and pretty early.  If this were 2007 someone would be questioning convective feedback, lol, although I've been suspicious of the 3km vs. the 12km for awhile, as they've been quite different, with the 3 km consistently showing more of a 50/50 sleet/rain combo and now that's what the 12km is showing, so maybe it's just correcting to something the 3km sees better (mesoscale convection).  No idea if that's right, but the outcomes clearly have changed.  

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NWS Albany just put me in a winter storm warning for 6 to 8 inches of snow and sleet plus up 1/4 inch of ice. Guess they didn't get the report that this is going to be a nothing burger. 

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Concensus?  What if nam is wrong? What about Ukie, Euro, and GFS? 

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6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Concensus?  What if nam is wrong? What about Ukie, Euro, and GFS? 

It matches the RGEM perfectly as well 

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6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It matches the RGEM perfectly as well 

RGEM trending colder at the surface, that's my biggest concern. It'll be a big problem just west of the city. I don't think we'll see much snow out of this. 

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

RGEM trending colder at the surface, that's my biggest concern. It'll be a big problem just west of the city. I don't think we'll see much snow out of this. 

1-3 inches of snow is a good call

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8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It matches the RGEM perfectly as well 

You couldn't be more wrong. the 18z nam and rgem do not agree on either timing or duration of snow. Nam has precip starting around 10am in city and Rgem has it starting at about 7am. Those 3 hours can be a big difference. Also, nam has precip turning to sleet quickly where rgem has a prolonged period of snow not changing over until noon. Where are the similarities.?

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1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

You couldn't be more wrong. the 18z nam and rgem do not agree on either timing or duration of snow. Nam has precip starting around 10am in city and Rgem has it starting at about 7am. Those 3 hours can be a big difference. Also, nam has precip turning to sleet quickly where rgem has a prolonged period of snow not changing over until noon. Where are the similarities.?

Look at the snowmaps. Did you follow my links? It’s carbon copies of each other

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Look at the snowmaps. Did you follow my links? It’s carbon copies of each other

I'm not looking at stupid snowmaps. The 2 models are not that similar. 

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Upton moved White Plains down to 3 inches from 5 and NYC up for 3 to 4 inches, still terrible map and way too high for NYC.  NYC is quick flip to sleet from any snow, I like 1 inch of snow and maybe an inch of sleet before rain.  My call has not changed.  Snowgoose still like 3 or 4 easy for NYC?

StormTotalSnow.png

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2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Upton moved White Plains down to 3 inches from 5 and NYC up for 3 to 4 inches, still terrible map and way too high for NYC.  NYC is quick flip to sleet from any snow, I like 1 inch of snow and maybe an inch of sleet before rain.  My call has not changed.  Snowgoose still like 3 or 4 easy for NYC?

StormTotalSnow.png

So you're calling for 2" for NYC but 3" is way too high?

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2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Upton moved White Plains down to 3 inches from 5 and NYC up for 3 to 4 inches, still terrible map and way too high for NYC.  NYC is quick flip to sleet from any snow, I like 1 inch of snow and maybe an inch of sleet before rain.  My call has not changed.  Snowgoose still like 3 or 4 easy for NYC?

StormTotalSnow.png

That's not high at all

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6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

He's a troll 

Ignore

I think you're right; none of the local pros are dismissing this as nothing. So it isn't an historic blizzard, we get that, but it is still an impactful storm that can create dangerous conditions. Prolonged sleet can be a serious hazard. What bothers me is I'm getting conflicted info on start times, with local mets saying as early as 2 am and folks here saying 7-10 am. That's quite a spread.

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I think we’ll get a wall snow event tomorrow morning. 3-5 inches for New York City proper followed by some sleet and turning into heavy rain!

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22 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Upton moved White Plains down to 3 inches from 5 and NYC up for 3 to 4 inches, still terrible map and way too high for NYC.  NYC is quick flip to sleet from any snow, I like 1 inch of snow and maybe an inch of sleet before rain.  My call has not changed.  Snowgoose still like 3 or 4 easy for NYC?

StormTotalSnow.png

Theres almost no way NYC will see more snow than White Plains in this particular setup with the mid levels warming from southwest to northeast. I would expect the precip type gradient to be very north vs south in this setup.  

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I've seen the Euro (but can't post it) - has anyone posted it?  Same for the UK - I've heard it's "similar" to 0Z which would be great. 

Starting to feel like it's the 2 best globals (which show a few inches of snow and several hours of sleet for 0.8-0.9" or so of total frozen LE for Trenton to NYC at least) vs. the more recent meso/high-res models showing less precip, a late start and not that much frozen (maybe 0.5" LE).  

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7 minutes ago, WallexWall said:

Tommy I’ll take my 4 inches and run!

 with your galoshes on !!!!!  :thumbsup:

 keep your umbrella, raincoat, and canoe handy 

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_31.thumb.png.2be8d4f0f7fdd4b33a0d20e299f7544c.png

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