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The Iceman

2/10-2/12 Winter Storm Threat

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24 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

Do you still have light snow? It looks like the precip is hitting a wall from temple north 

No just an occasional flurry here and there.

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WXSIM with 6z data with 1.3" already on the ground - nice forecast so far. WXSIM shows  light now and IP continuing most of the day with another 1" or so accumulating by 10pm tonight. Snow should become all sleet/IP by midnight and become moderate by 3am tomorrow morning. Sleet moderate at times will continue to fall till around 10am with 2" to 3" more inches of snow/sleet  falling before transitioning to rain by 1pm tomorrow afternoon. Total snow accumulation 4" to 7" . Wxsim still shows another 3.15" of rain falling tomorrow PM into Wed AM before ending

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5 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

WXSIM with 6z data with 1.3" already on the ground - nice forecast so far. WXSIM shows  light now and IP continuing most of the day with another 1" or so accumulating by 10pm tonight. Snow should become all sleet/IP by midnight and become moderate by 3am tomorrow morning. Sleet moderate at times will continue to fall till around 10am with 2" to 3" more inches of snow/sleet  falling before transitioning to rain by 1pm tomorrow afternoon. Total snow accumulation 4" to 7" . Wxsim still shows another 3.15" of rain falling tomorrow PM into Wed AM before ending

Where is this additional 3.15" rain coming from? The wxsim keeps showing this tomorrow night but I havent seen anything close to those totals on any guidance. Matter of fact a few hint that some spots see flakes redevelop towards the end.

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Latest NAMs buying into other mesos now has IP and fzra here thru mid afternoon Tueaday now. Notable colder trend with 2m temps I can only imagine the mesos are now accounting for some snowpack at the surface. Looks like alot less rain too....basically a dryslot then a quick punch thru of the cold front with some convection possible.

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Latest NAMs buying into other mesos now has IP and fzra here thru mid afternoon Tueaday now. Notable colder trend with 2m temps I can only imagine the mesos are now accounting for some snowpack at the surface. Looks like alot less rain too....basically a dryslot then a quick punch thru of the cold front with some convection possible.

Yeah, definitely looked colder.  Lots of sleet huh?

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9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks that way. VD sleet storm redux

Hmm I wonder what schools will do tomorrow, sounds like it could be messy

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Where is this additional 3.15" rain coming from? The wxsim keeps showing this tomorrow night but I havent seen anything close to those totals on any guidance. Matter of fact a few hint that some spots see flakes redevelop towards the end.

I thought the same thing.  Not a single model prints out that much rain, let alone precip in any form melted equivalent.  Got to be something wrong there....  

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Latest WXSIM with 12z data has no snow just some light sleet starting this PM and continuing all night with around 1" of sleet accumulation by 7am tomorrow morning. Sleet becomes moderate by 830am tomorrow morning with another 1" to 2" of IP accumulating before a change to ZR by 1130am  Then ZR thru 3pm before temps rise above freezing by 330pm. Then another 1.18" of rain before it ends by 330am on Wednesday. Total precip 2.81" with  1.44" falling as some form of frozen.  

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11 minutes ago, RedSky said:

12z runs bring the precipitation back quicker and more robustly into the retreating cold is the biggest difference over 0z

 

To clarify, that translates to an earlier start to the second round event?

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1 minute ago, Tibet said:

To clarify, that translates to an earlier start to the second round event?

ECM is an earlier start and if it is to be believed 3-4" of snow before the change to mix 

 

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Hrrr is taking lsd apparently....has my area in Bucks under moderate snow (lighter here and there at times) from 7pm tonight thru 7am tomorrow. Not sleet. Yet snowfall map has .25" snow. Loving the surface maps...colder and earlier onset, but the snowmaps are a complete joke. There is no way many hours of mod snow falls and we only get .25"

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hrrr is taking lsd apparently....has my area in Bucks under moderate snow (lighter here and there at times) from 7pm tonight thru 7am tomorrow. Not sleet. Yet snowfall map has .25" snow. Loving the surface maps...colder and earlier onset, but the snowmaps are a complete joke. There is no way many hours of mod snow falls and we only get .25"

Lol I was just looking at that and thinking the same thing. Either way I think the mesos are picking up on the CAD at this point and see something the global don’t. I think we start frozen longer than being forecasted. 

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57 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Fwiw 12z euro picked up a notch for winter weather showing several inches of SN,IP, grauppel snizzle rimmed flakes etc. 

 

Any dippin dots?

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5 minutes ago, Fields27 said:

WSW for Berks, Lehigh. 5-7". Wow

Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk
 

Also same for my area in upper bucks 

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Mt.Holly continues the Winter Weather Advisory here which is in effect until 6 pm tomorrow for 2-4" of snow but has increased ice accumulation to one tenth of an inch

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Only in an advisory here in NW Chesco but my point and click a bit more aggressive (4" to 8" of snow possible??) - likely the usual problem of unable to break out NW Chesco from SW Chesco...
Snow before 3am, then snow and sleet. Low around 27. East wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Tuesday
Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 9am, then freezing rain and sleet between 9am and 3pm, then rain and sleet after 3pm. High near 36. East wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

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2 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:
Only in an advisory here in NW Chesco but my point and click a bit more aggressive (4" to 8" of snow possible??) - likely the usual problem of unable to break out NW Chesco from SW Chesco...
Snow before 3am, then snow and sleet. Low around 27. East wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Tuesday
Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 9am, then freezing rain and sleet between 9am and 3pm, then rain and sleet after 3pm. High near 36. East wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

The line is already drawn for them too: rt. 30 ... I share your sentiments

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1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said:
Only in an advisory here in NW Chesco but my point and click a bit more aggressive (4" to 8" of snow possible??) - likely the usual problem of unable to break out NW Chesco from SW Chesco...
Snow before 3am, then snow and sleet. Low around 27. East wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Tuesday
Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 9am, then freezing rain and sleet between 9am and 3pm, then rain and sleet after 3pm. High near 36. East wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

How about NE chesco?  A little less snow and possibly switching over to rain/sleet sooner? 

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35 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

How about NE chesco?  A little less snow and possibly switching over to rain/sleet sooner? 

Probably. If this is being marketed as a CAD event then it stands to reason that areas with lower and/or less hills won't score as well and the mid atmosphere will have thicker layer of warmer air. 

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setting the bar here at 2" snow/sleet...not positive I'll make it. bad trends today at least down here...looks like a hour or 2 of snow tops.

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