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The Iceman

2/10-2/12 Winter Storm Threat

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With pretty unanimous support of at least some frozen with some guidance spitting out borderline warning level events, figured it's time for a legit storm threat thread. Let's hope this is the first of many hits in the coming weeks.

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EPS looks really good. Holds serve with the OP but the high is a little stronger and therefore temps a little cooler. I like where we stand right now but hope we get a little bit of breathing room tonight and DC gets back in the game. The better they do, the better we tend to do in these situations.

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

EPS looks really good. Holds serve with the OP but the high is a little stronger and therefore temps a little cooler. I like where we stand right now but hope we get a little bit of breathing room tonight and DC gets back in the game. The better they do, the better we tend to do in these situations.

Thought it was weird the NAM slightly backed off the CAD look. Red flag?

3k looks good for Sunday night tho...may end up with more snow out of that tbh.

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4 hours ago, RedSky said:

0z ECM and UKMET are a relative crushing for this region of 4-8" 

0z GFS no changes maybe a tad worse lol

 

Are you inland? Inland area will do very good with this storm. Even the coast will start as frozen precip.

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The Euro has the early Monday morning snows come through and drop coatings to 2" but then the next storm is almost right on its heels with more light snow breaking out by Monday afternoon. Moderate snows over spread the region by late Monday evening and places like the Lehigh Valley see decent snow for 6 or 7 hours until turning to some significant icing and eventually rain. It seems like we may see snow enter the region Monday afternoon/evening rather than Tuesday morning as originally progged a couple days ago.

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8 minutes ago, Newman said:

The Euro has the early Monday morning snows come through and drop coatings to 2" but then the next storm is almost right on its heels with more light snow breaking out by Monday afternoon. Moderate snows over spread the region by late Monday evening and places like the Lehigh Valley see decent snow for 6 or 7 hours until turning to some significant icing and eventually rain. It seems like we may see snow enter the region Monday afternoon/evening rather than Tuesday morning as originally progged a couple days ago.

CMC says no break really between systems starts snowing Sunday night and continues thu the evening Monday. Doesnt go above freezing til Tuesday. It and the UKIE look nice. Fits my idea from a couple days ago where wave 1 will be a bigger player then wave 2 on its heels into a thump then mix then rain. Hopefully there are correct.

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16 minutes ago, Newman said:

The Euro has the early Monday morning snows come through and drop coatings to 2" but then the next storm is almost right on its heels with more light snow breaking out by Monday afternoon. Moderate snows over spread the region by late Monday evening and places like the Lehigh Valley see decent snow for 6 or 7 hours until turning to some significant icing and eventually rain. It seems like we may see snow enter the region Monday afternoon/evening rather than Tuesday morning as originally progged a couple days ago.

How's it looking out our way? I go on TT but finding my way around the site is confusing to me :blink:

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

RGEM is 1-3" thru Monday AM for SE PA. Similar setup with not much of a break and snow continuing intermittently all day Monday steadier later in the day.

Monday could be a timing nightmare for schools. Sunday night/Monday morning snows might trigger 2 hour delays, but with the potential for snow to break out again in the afternoon, or maybe not even stop at all, the closing scenario could be on the table. Then I think Tuesday is at the minimum a 2 hour delay for southern areas with closings likely in the Lehigh Valley and Poconos.

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18 minutes ago, Newman said:

The Euro has the early Monday morning snows come through and drop coatings to 2" but then the next storm is almost right on its heels with more light snow breaking out by Monday afternoon. Moderate snows over spread the region by late Monday evening and places like the Lehigh Valley see decent snow for 6 or 7 hours until turning to some significant icing and eventually rain. It seems like we may see snow enter the region Monday afternoon/evening rather than Tuesday morning as originally progged a couple days ago.

Faster it gets here was thought to bode better for us before HP pulls away so that's better than nothing.

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Just now, penndotguy said:

How's it looking out our way? I go on TT but finding my way around the site is confusing to me :blink:

Euro has around an inch for the Sunday night light snows, with light snow picking back up Monday afternoon. Heaviest stuff comes through around 11pm to 5 am Tuesday before going over to some ice and eventually plain rain. Total snow from second wave, not including Sunday night, is around 3-5". Lots of ice on the Euro Tuesday morning.

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If it stays how it is, I'm thinking I'll end up with 3" from sun night to Tuesday am before changeover to rain/sleet.  Knowing how this winter has gone it will be more like 1-2" though.  Hoping things trend colder, I was hoping NE PA or the Catskills stay all snow.

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3 minutes ago, Newman said:

After a 6 to 8 hour period of decent snows, the Lehigh Valley sees more than 6 hours of icing or sleet on the Euro.

Is that the same for Northern Jersey or less icing because they're coastal? I do a lot of work up by Allentown and Northern Jersey like Perth Amboy, etc.. I'm thinking work will be called off if there's that much icing.

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1 minute ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Is that the same for Northern Jersey or less icing because they're coastal? I do a lot of work up by Allentown and Northern Jersey like Perth Amboy, etc.. I'm thinking work will be called off if there's that much icing.

About the same with Northern Jersey. Might see the moderate snows enter in a bit later due to the snows coming from the SW, but amounts, icing, and the overall specifics are similar from the Lehigh Valley into Northern Jersey.

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Latest Wxsim with 6z data - not too much wintry once past Tuesday AM... rush not bad at all

Sunday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A
 slight chance of snow in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Low
 28. Wind south-southwest near calm in the evening, becoming southeast after
 midnight. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)
 mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
 
 Monday: Dense overcast. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a chance of
 a mix of snow and sleet in the afternoon. High 37. Wind east-northeast around 4
 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)
 mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Little or no snow or ice (on ground)
 accumulation expected.
 
 Monday night: Dense overcast. Sleet likely in the evening, then a mix of
 freezing rain and sleet likely after midnight. Low 30. Wind chill ranging from
 21 to 27. Wind east-northeast around 8 mph in the evening, becoming 12 mph,
 gusting to 17 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Ice (on ground)
 accumulation about a quarter inch. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to
 0.1 inches.
 
 Tuesday: Dense overcast. A mix of rain and freezing rain likely in the morning,
 then rain likely in the afternoon. Breezy. High 43. Wind east-northeast around
 14 mph, gusting to 21 mph, in the morning, becoming 10 mph, gusting to 18 mph,
 in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly around 2 inches. No ice (on ground) accumulation expected.
 Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches.

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS playing catch up. 1" wave 1 then 2-4" wave 2 for extreme SE PA before torchy rain.

Remember that the GFS sucks with thermals, especially in CAD situations. My call right now would be a general 3-5" before icing. I think this is also a situation where there could be a sneaky warm layer somewhere which limits snowfall but raises sleet potential. 

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