bluewave Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Too early to say what this upcoming storm will be since we are 4 days out. Not really. The general themes have already been set by the pattern. Only issue now is how much of each P-Type for the individual locations. Snow...mix....rain etc... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: Not really. The general themes have already been set by the pattern. Only issue now is how much of each P-Type for the individual locations. Snow...mix....rain etc... Agreed. However I can see the coastal areas and just inland getting a good 2 to 4 inches of snow sleet mix before changeover. What are your thoughts about the long range? The MA forum is gung ho on a great incoming pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Agreed. However I can see the coastal areas and just inland getting a good 2 to 4 inches of snow sleet mix before changeover. What are your thoughts about the long range? The MA forum is gung ho on a great incoming pattern. Sure. Those details will have to wait until the short term. Longer range, I would like to see that -PNA trough pattern over the Western US and Canada shift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: Sure. Those details will have to wait until the short term. Longer range, I would like to see that -PNA trough pattern over the Western US and Canada shift. The mjo is interesting. The latest starts to loop in 8. I hope that is not a bend back to 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The mjo is interesting. The latest starts to loop in 8. I hope that is not a bend back to 7. The main question is what the MJO influence on the pattern will look like with so many overlapping factors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The mjo is interesting. The latest starts to loop in 8. I hope that is not a bend back to 7. Or maybe it will stall in 8 which would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Or maybe it will stall in 8 which would be great. Hey, that rhymes! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Or maybe it will stall in 8 which would be great. The differences between the ECMWF and GEFS are pretty large. CFS seems to have been the middle ground all along. Will post once they come out later today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 So it started off looking like all snow, then it looked like a cutter, Then it showed snow again, then we were talking about transition times on two different waves as it trended warmer. I’m talking about January 20 of course what are you guys all talking about? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Looks like anther rain storm cutter on Tuesday, rinse and repeat 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 16 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: So it started off looking like all snow, then it looked like a cutter, Then it showed snow again, then we were talking about transition times on two different waves as it trended warmer. I’m talking about January 20 of course what are you guys all talking about? Different pattern 13 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Looks like anther rain storm cutter on Tuesday, rinse and repeat Not all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Different pattern, similar conversation, similar result? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Different pattern, similar conversation, similar result? With no Atlantic blocking, a pure snow event will be tough....Need to get a front end thump and then to light rain drizzle.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: With no Atlantic blocking, a pure snow event will be tough....Need to get a front end thump and then to light rain drizzle.... Agree and that what it looks like to be the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 MJO plots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: you were saying that about the January 19 - 20th event days in advance - you have no idea what is going to actually happen and I am not saying its going to be all rain along the coast but that possibility for NYC and the immediate metro is still on the table for the second system Tuesday...…. I think snow to rain for the coast and snow inland for tuesday's storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Actually I'm not banned from any forum lol Many people have busted this winter. It's been a tough winter for every weather person out there. The MJO really messed up everyone's forecast. This storm looks like snow to rain for the coast. There will be enough cold air to start off as snow but since we are 4 days out, we still dont know the outcome just yet. Have to hope for a weaker lakes cutter. Latest MJO plots look great from mid month onward. Lets hope we really cash in before spring comes in mid to late March. We really need a benchmark KU event to get back into the game. This is the first winter so far without a decent benchmark storm since 2012 by this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: We really need a benchmark KU event to get back into the game. This is the first winter so far without a decent benchmark storm since 2012 by this time. I agree Everyone thought this winter was going to be good because of the weak El Nino . Majority of forecasts had NYC at 30-40 inches and even some had it more than that. The SSW likely caused the MJO to be all over the place. If the SSW didn't happen, this would probably be a good winter. We still have a chance to be near average if the pattern gets better by next week and beyond but time is running out unless we get a March 2018 redux. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: I agree Everyone thought this winter was going to be good because of the weak El Nino . Majority of forecasts had NYC at 30-40 inches and even some had it more than that. We still have a chance to be near average if the pattern gets better by next week and beyond but time is running out unless we get a March 2018 redux. The strong PAC jet is what really killed it-toss in an unfavorable SOI and zero Atlantic side blocking and the foundation was laid for the clunker we have dealt with to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The strong PAC jet is what really killed it-toss in an unfavorable SOI and zero Atlantic side blocking and the foundation was laid for the clunker we have dealt with to date. People bring up having a negative NAO. Yes it's essential to have a huge snowstorm but I rather have a + PNA than a negative NAO. Pac >Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 People are putting way too much stress on one issue or another. Sure the MJO has been a problem, but let's not act like that was our ONLY problem. Other things have gone wrong too. And for the MJO, it isn't going to be in phase 8 for the first storm, and based on how models have been in the past, it might not even get to phase 8. We have seen the MJO model in the LR go horribly wrong throughout this winter, so let's not keep repeating "but the MJO". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Further, every year except 2011-2012 has featured AN snowfall in the NYC metro. That truly is phenomenal. People now expect it. If we have AN for two more seasons, this would be the first decade with only 1 BN season. While each year is treated individually, statistics always wins in the LR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: People are putting way too much stress on one issue or another. Sure the MJO has been a problem, but let's not act like that was our ONLY problem. Other things have gone wrong too. And for the MJO, it isn't going to be in phase 8 for the first storm, and based on how models have been in the past, it might not even get to phase 8. We have seen the MJO model in the LR go horribly wrong throughout this winter, so let's not keep repeating "but the MJO". Every model has the MJO going into 8 next week so that's most likely a good forecast. Now there are other factors along with the MJO. Right now this is the worst winter ever ( worse than 2001-2002) Lets get more snow on Tuesday and beyond to not make this the worst winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 I'll take last night's UK... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 The Mid Atlantic posters are talking about how the GEFS have a great blocking signal in the long range. Hopefully it's true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The Mid Atlantic posters are talking about how the GEFS have a great blocking signal in the long range. Hopefully it's true. Phantom. GFS has shown that several times this past winter and last few. -NAO has been rare the last 6 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Every model has the MJO going into 8 next week so that's most likely a good forecast. Now there are other factors along with the MJO. Right now this is the worst winter ever ( worse than 2001-2002) Lets get more snow on Tuesday and beyond to not make this the worst winter Yes, this is a terrible winter for snowfall. But don't forget this is like the 3rd time we have seen the majority of models getting us into a favorable MJO cycle only to collapse within the 5 day span. The phase 8 is still in the long range. Further, snowstorms are not solely dictated by the MJO. Yes it is tied into a lot of teleconnections, but the Pacific has been a problem all year. Now the AO is looking to rocket into the ++++ zone, which yes it can still snow, but in my experience it becomes tough. We all want snow (well most of us anyways), but you cannot let your desires cloudy your judgement. 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The Mid Atlantic posters are talking about how the GEFS have a great blocking signal in the long range. Hopefully it's true. Who cares what the Mid-Atlantic posters are talking about? The long range guidance this winter has been worse than a steaming pile of dog crap. That is just it. The long range now brings us into March. Most of the mid-Atlantic starts to really struggle with snow then. Remember they are further south, and their window is rapidly closing as well. Based on statistics it will be VERY hard to get us to normal this season. Yes, one massive storm could do it, but I am not willing to put all my eggs in that basket so to speak. And again, snow that just melts in a few days is a tease and miserable. Sure it is pretty, but give me snow that will stay around a week so I can enjoy it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Phantom. GFS has shown that several times this past winter and last few. -NAO has been rare the last 6 years I wouldn't exactly say rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The Mid Atlantic posters are talking about how the GEFS have a great blocking signal in the long range. Hopefully it's true. It does appear the NAO is finally going negative in the next 7-10 days. The problem is it appears the PNA isn’t going positive so I’m not sure the pattern gets markedly better. I do think NYC might end up seeing double digit snowfall this month. The thing is it might all be washed away each time by rain. Think February 1993. I think we had 3 SWFEs and about 11-12 inches that month but nothing was on the ground for more than 12 hours 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: I wouldn't exactly say rare. look at the run from 2008-2013-it really drops off after that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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