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40/70 Benchmark

1/29- 1/30 Storm Threat

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

This thing seems like moisture will be lacking from about a LWM-ORH-BDL on SE line. They'll be snow, but could only be 1-2 as well.

Been telegraphed pretty well, u may extend that into ASH even

thoughts the same as yesterday 

3-6 litchfield county to W Ma , then draw line from route 2 over to NW ORH county.

separate area from say PSM (just inland over to Merrimack NH to Keene NE 3-6” spot 8 in C NH over to Maine 

1-3” Merrimack valley down to 128

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Been telegraphed pretty well, u may extend that into ASH even

thoughts the same as yesterday 

3-6 litchfield county to W Ma , then draw line from route 2 over to NW ORH county.

separate area from say PSM (just inland over to Merrimack NH to Keene NE 3-6” spot 8 in C NH over to Maine 

1-3” Merrimack valley down to 128

It's possible an extra inch or two near 128-495 may happen from CF enhancement later. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

It's possible an extra inch or two near 128-495 may happen from CF enhancement later. 

Oh and the squalls are basically not worth anticipating , but maybe ppl see a dusting whoop de do da

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Oh and the squalls are basically not worth anticipating , but maybe ppl see a dusting whoop de do da

:frostymelt:

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nah just facts 

Well from what I see, the squalls tomorrow have some potential. You have a very strong s/w moving through, return of moisture, and unstable lapse rates. Sure not every place may get them, but the overall look exceeds anything I've seen recently. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Well from what I see, the squalls tomorrow have some potential. You have a very strong s/w moving through, return of moisture, and unstable lapse rates. Sure not every place may get them, but the overall look exceeds anything I've seen recently. 

What else have u seen recently 

not trying to be funny but I mean what do you forecast, isolated dustings...maybe a 1/2 inch in a couple towns. 

Cool for novelty value and I guess chance of flakes in air for areas that will rain again later. 

Just I mean 20 mins of novelty , I’m like Ray , big woop

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gonna come down hard for a time tonight. Looking forward to having things look like winter during the cold snap 

Yeah for hubby.

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What else have u seen recently 

not trying to be funny but I mean what do you forecast, isolated dustings...maybe a 1/2 inch in a couple towns. 

Cool for novelty value and I guess chance of flakes in air for areas that will rain again later. 

Just I mean 20 mins of novelty , I’m like Ray , big woop

Some of the mesos have that weak low forming with a curly Q look on the presentations. That's a quick 1-2 if that happened. We'll see what 12z does.

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Light snow and flurries on my way into Andover from Southeast NH this morning.  Not accumulating anywhere, just mood flakes.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Some of the mesos have that weak low forming with a curly Q look on the presentations. That's a quick 1-2 if that happened. We'll see what 12z does.

WRF ARW hits James well

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42 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Been telegraphed pretty well, u may extend that into ASH even

thoughts the same as yesterday 

3-6 litchfield county to W Ma , then draw line from route 2 over to NW ORH county.

separate area from say PSM (just inland over to Merrimack NH to Keene NE 3-6” spot 8 in C NH over to Maine 

1-3” Merrimack valley down to 128

I really think this is an I95 to 495 (max gradient), in seacoast NH, NE MA based on morning obs. 6 F/ -7 F with North wind at 9 at KDAW this morning. I’d extend WSW to the coastal plain of NH and into NE MA, west of 495/ North of 202.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Nice 2-4” spot here. I’m good with that 

4 may be pushing it. But 2 looks like high conf.

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13 degrees this morning and we are expecting rain later today...The winter that keeps on giving, on the bright side the GEFS look pretty good in 15 days :frostymelt:

 

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Huge correction lower on surface temps on the 12z nam vs 6z already through 3 hrs. That RA/SN line needs to be shoved much further south...

NWS has more WSW’s to hoist.

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43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well from what I see, the squalls tomorrow have some potential. You have a very strong s/w moving through, return of moisture, and unstable lapse rates. Sure not every place may get them, but the overall look exceeds anything I've seen recently. 

Off the tree branch, through the garbage can, around the street pole off the garage roof, add in some a bit of lift....nothing but net.

Easy path to snow, huh...

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Off the tree branch, through the garbage can, around the street pole off the garage roof, add in some a bit of lift....nothing but net.

Easy path to snow, huh...

LOL, we will see. Trust me, I'm not the Wizard of WINDEX...but some areas are under the gun. 

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4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Huge correction lower on surface temps on the 12z nam vs 6z already through 3 hrs. That RA/SN line needs to be shoved much further south...

NWS has more WSW’s to hoist.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the stakes don't seem to really be that high, here....not like a shift south in the R/S line is going to cause some radical change to snowfall amounts......like, breaking news, 2-3" likely, as opposed to 1-2".

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hmm....I wonder where...this should be a big mystery.

I'll give you a hint....they are west of my area and higher in elevation.

Next.

I don't think so to be honest. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the stakes don't seem to really be that high, here....not like a shift south in the R/S line is going to cause some radical change to snowfall amounts......like, breaking news, 2-3" likely, as opposed to 1-2".

Valid point. And there’s the nuances of snowfall accumulation of course...problem I saw here was the warm intrusion occurred right as the heaviest precipitation arrived. I think we’re talking maybe a difference of 0.2” LE that falls as snow versus mix/rain.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hmm....I wonder where...this should be a big, riveting mystery.

I'll give you a hint....they are west of my area and higher in elevation.

Next.

Scooter is hanging onto positivity by the whisker of a snow squall

rainer tonite , flurry Wednesday 

scoots....come to the dark side . You be feeling so much better 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Over/under 2" from squalls IMBY.

I'll take under.

2”? No one will get that.  Many will get 0.5” or so pretty quickly.  Just like a quick thunderstorm.  Nothing amazing but cool if you get it.  If I miss it I will be fine...

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

No I read it, I was just asking you that as a rhetorical question out of frustration with how the general public responds to phrases it deems "inflammatory."   For better or worse, sometimes we have to dumb things down because the vast majority of people don't delve too deeply into this- and we have an instant gratification/sound bite/click bait oriented society today.

 

I mean, I explicitly outlined what the PV is and is not in bold, italicized fawnt...and called out the media for hyping it.

I'm not sure how else to convey it.

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