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NorEastermass128

February 2019 Discussion I

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53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When you have barely above average temps and well above avg precip and hardly any snow at our latitude? I call it mostly bad luck. We can define what luck is...we probably should: I define it as atmospheric chaos on the smaller scale outside of the longwave pattern. Those are things that are not predictable. 

There's realy no such thing as actual "luck" when it comes to this stuff. Some butterfly farted in Mongolia back in August and it changed the way a shortwave ejected from the Arctic circle months later...It happened but we just didn't know about it and had no way of reconciling that within a long wave pattern. 

But still. We got storm systems to hit us over and over all while we were somehow maintaining near climo temps and yet didn't snow...it's hard for me to call that some sort of standard pattern that we see and the light bulb goes on "oh yeah! There it is! The normal temp-above average precip-below average snowfall pattern!"  

But is all ears if there is some golden nugget explanation like a warm pocket of ocean off Easter Island that forces this unusual combo. 

I mean PWM is +1.9 and +2.96"

That's usually not a bad recipe for more than 15.3" IMBY. It's climo coldest time of the year. 

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NNE has had plenty of rain and sleet too. They've racked up more in SWFEs thanks to latitude. idk...I just don't like the avg temps + high precip > little snow being due to luck argument. Not when we're getting 2-4" of liquid from multiple cutters each with 1.00-1.50" PWATs.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NNE has had plenty of rain and sleet too. They've racked up more in SWFEs thanks to latitude. idk...I just don't like the avg temps + high precip > little snow being due to luck argument. Not when we're getting 2-4" of liquid from multiple cutters each with 1.00-1.50" PWATs.

I think you are going more granular than me though...we're not talking about the same thing. You're looking at each individual storm and saying it makes sense. Of course it does. That's the advantage of empirical hindsight. I agree that storms that track through Ottawa suck for us.

I'm more looking at a broader measure where we have this pattern that doesn't even look that bad and then has produced like +1 temps and above avg precip and a very active jet...yet somehow has produced the empirical results of Ottawa storm tracks, Virginia snows, and exceptionally low snow that you are saying makes sense once we go back and look at the storms. 

I'm more on the side that this combo of storm tracks is pretty difficult to get given the longwave pattern. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think you are going more granular than me though...we're not talking about the same thing. You're looking at each individual storm and saying it makes sense. Of course it does. That's the advantage of empirical hindsight. I agree that storms that track through Ottawa suck for us.

I'm more looking at a broader measure where we have this pattern that doesn't even look that bad and then has produced like +1 temps and above avg precip and a very active jet...yet somehow has produced the empirical results of Ottawa storm tracks, Virginia snows, and exceptionally low snow that you are saying makes sense once we go back and look at the storms. 

I'm more on the side that this combo of storm tracks is pretty difficult to get given the longwave pattern. 

If your last sentence is true, it does boil down to bad luck. Called heads, turned up tails on 9/10 flips when we’d expect 5 or 6/10 heads given the pattern. Going forward with all other things being equal, we should start to see more heads.  Just another analogy that’s probably little comfort for weenies tonight. 

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1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

 Going forward with all other things being equal, we should start to see more heads. 

Ya ....You want some action on that ...lol

 

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15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NNE has had plenty of rain and sleet too. They've racked up more in SWFEs thanks to latitude. idk...I just don't like the avg temps + high precip > little snow being due to luck argument. Not when we're getting 2-4" of liquid from multiple cutters each with 1.00-1.50" PWATs.

I’m very interred In your take as to the current favorability of this long wave pattern for SNE

 is this not cutter favorable 

and if so how can it be “good”

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2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

If your last sentence is true, it does boil down to bad luck. Called heads, turned up tails on 9/10 flips when we’d expect 5 or 6/10 heads given the pattern. Going forward with all other things being equal, we should start to see more heads.  Just another analogy that’s probably little comfort for weenies tonight. 

I think there is an inherent bias toward explaining chaotic and high variance results as something either meaningful or predictable. It's why I brought up the gambling analogy from my card counting days. It's something I would see all the time. People will go to all sorts of lengths to attribute something relatively simple to a result that might be totally random. A great book about this is actually call "Fooled by Randomness". This can work in  every direction though...someone could use this like of thinking to criticize a seasonal forecast based on just a handful of analogs. 

One thing we do have a pretty good sample on is monthly precip and temp data. 

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Meh I don’t know what I KNOW

 But having a gradient set up in the same place just NW of the majority of us in SNE on say 70% of systems is not my definition  of bad luck. It’s a SNEAKY bad Pattern that seems so sneaky because a subtle shift would change our fortunes .

Bad luck is tripping waking to the store . Now if I tripped 70% of the time I walked to the store I would damn well say gee there has got to be a problem with the positioning of some peristiant ridging location and or raging zonal compressed flow w zero blocking. Maybe they take turns screwing is .It may not be very apparent because areas within 100 miles are steadily cashing in so it seems close Enuf to other years where we did fine but I Believe something is off just enuf and makes MUCH more of a effect than is initially diagnosed for our latitude 

I could be wrong

Something def. is off, which is why we are at the mercy of "luck".

Going to have to agree to disagree here, as this is not a ratter pattern. Its a medicore pattern with a ratter return.

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A better way to look at it might be to ask what the standard deviation of snowfall for Dec 1 through Jan 27th snowfall in SNE would be in this pattern. Hard to say but it's probably pretty high just given the sheer number of chances (active pattern). 

Its going to be hard to accurately say what "should" be the snowfall in this type of pattern. We get a lot of front enders in a winter...and got just one in that time period (last weekend) despite a really active pattern with non-torch temps. We missed some storms south too. Who knows. But variance likely plays a very high role when talking about empirical results. 

I'm sure in the end those of us that see it differently will just end up agreeing to disagree. Maybe when the ERSL site is up I'll try and compare the H5 anomalies to their closest matches and see what pops up. 

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52 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m very interred In your take as to the current favorability of this long wave pattern for SNE

 is this not cutter favorable 

and if so how can it be “good”

I'd leave that up to Will, Scoot, and the others. I'm not going to claim to be able to tell a cutter pattern from 1-2+ weeks out. I mean, I can look at it and say, "yeah...cutter risk", but I can't look at it and say we have another near shutout coming going forward. We've joked about the 80s around here, but there IS an eerie feel, sensible weather wise, compared to some of those 80s years. Cutter, record cold, cutter for us while a couple -40C PVs drop into the upper midwest.

Tip had a good point...these cold shots knife on in and retreat with little fight at all. The one storm last weekend had a decent high trying to nose its way in, but even then, the midlevels were way northwest. You have to be pretty tilted to be pulling off sleet with a temp of 0F. But most of the cold shots have been fleeting.

We have a -PNA building in d5-10 on the EPS/GEFS so the period after the SB definitely looks meh for a bit.

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22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 this is not a ratter pattern. Its a medicore pattern with a ratter return.

Wait...you're shocked to see a ratter return from a mediocre pattern?

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I agree with dendrite the period from about D6-D9 looks poor...whether it's muted or not...deep WC trough and still no blocking downstream of us. 

But it goes favorable again after that...whether we cash in? Well, is the dealer still hot or will the law of large numbers start to assert itself? 

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The NAO is one big fraud index. Anytime it looks to show up, the models come back with negative height differences. Phuck that. I'm selling that so hard and fast right now. That and the ass-clowns who were stroking themselves raw to the SSW. Dear Lord for months that's all we have heard. Just shut up already. 

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The NAO is one big fraud index. Anytime it looks to show up, the models come back with negative height differences. Phuck that. I'm selling that so hard and fast right now. That and the ass-clowns who were stroking themselves raw to the SSW. Dear Lord for months that's all we have heard. Just shut up already. 

Some touch themselves to influence Wall Street commodities  (are they sellouts) or different bunch 

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Some touch themselves to influence Wall Street commodities  (are they sellouts) or different bunch 

I'm just so sick of all the hype and nonsense...just stop already.  As a met, it just looks so cheesy. Those who were hellbent on cold and snow hype for the CONUS all season are the ones pimping it. 

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12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I cant give up when the pattern looks good sans the 2-3 day warmup. 

This is the old gambler's test...back from my card counting days in blackjack...you'd have a high count in the shoe which is what you want and you bet big. But the dealer keeps giving you stiff hands and they keep making 20s and 21s even when they have a stiff hand...they just pull a 5 card 21. 

You get your clock cleaned despite the deck being favorable. So now the important question...do you stop betting big because "the dealer is hot" or do you continue to bet big with a high count because that is what the objective numbers tell you to do? The obvious answer for the counter is you continue to bet big. In the long run you will beat the casino betting big on favorable counts. The short term past results from a favorable count do not change the mathematics. The casual gambler (or a poorly disciplined counter) may decide to leave the table. 

For me, it's not time to leave the table yet. If that time comes, I'll say it. But right now the deck looks pretty favorable so I'll stay in. 

Someone call  Eric--we need a photoshop of Will as a blackjack dealer.

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Looks like early next week could be a cutter, but after that..might finally get some overrunning systems as it looks conducive for that. 

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21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like early next week could be a cutter, but after that..might finally get some overrunning systems as it looks conducive for that. 

Is this somewhere on models somewhere or what are you seeing that gives you some confidence that overrunning systems look favorable to produce 

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18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is this somewhere on models somewhere or what are you seeing that gives you some confidence that overrunning systems look favorable to produce 

Just the overall H5 look. I've made my peace accepting a suck winter. At this point whatever happens, happens. 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just the overall H5 look. I've made my peace accepting a suck winter. At this point whatever happens, happens. 

Agreed. I just want at least 1 snow event by the end at this point.

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Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Wow, the EPS is so bad it’s good. Hopefully no sneaky backdoor airmasses to muck up our golf games and outdoor pina coladas. 

If its not going to snow let it torch!

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2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Wow, the EPS is so bad it’s good. Hopefully no sneaky backdoor airmasses to muck up our golf games and outdoor pina coladas. 

At what point? Other than early next week, it's rather chilly.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At what point? Other than early next week, it's rather chilly.

Obviously I assumed red colors on an H5 map meant torch. Duh. More likely an overrunning pattern that produces more QPF laden SWFEs (rainstorms)

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