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January/February Medium/Long Range Disco


nj2va

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4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Better and better...

EPS 354_0124.png

Another tick in the right direction. EPS and GEFS have all but cancelled any "relax" or "disaster". How much better can it get in 10 days? I'm going with my gut and saying we're in good shape in general from here on out. EPS has shifted significantly colder in the mids coast to coast over the last 4 runs. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Another tick in the right direction. EPS and GEFS have all but cancelled any "relax" or "disaster". How much better can it get in 10 days? I'm going with my gut and saying we're in good shape in general from here on out. EPS has shifted significantly colder in the mids coast to coast over the last 4 runs. 

It's nice too that the "reshuffle" when the PV lifts is setting up one of our better looks of the winter as well. Tracking 2 events within 10 days with the above map for the future...sign me up.

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4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

It's nice too that the "reshuffle" when the PV lifts is setting up one of our better looks of the winter as well. Tracking 2 events within 10 days with the above map for the future...sign me up.

Yea, pretty good EPS run but tricky with the PNA/EPO ridge so far west. Blocking is required to keep the east cold and storm track suppressed. Which brings me to an example...lol...control run is close to a hecs look. Cold mids coast to coast...potential 50/50 on the way in... heh. Just need the west based NAO to flex and this panel would be excellent. 

8bdgKiC.jpg

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58 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Another tick in the right direction. EPS and GEFS have all but cancelled any "relax" or "disaster". How much better can it get in 10 days? I'm going with my gut and saying we're in good shape in general from here on out. EPS has shifted significantly colder in the mids coast to coast over the last 4 runs. 

I would like to think they are both seeing the better outcomes with the MJO.

Maybe we do get the weeklies look afterall.  I think first they ( EPS and the GEFS) sense the upcoming changes but as Earthlight alluded too they changes are washed out and smoothed over in the ensembles intially,  but now they are all latching onto the positive changes in the Pac and the more favorable forcing as well and you are seeing those outcomes in the much improved EPS. Game time coming up . 

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4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

EPS weeklies look solid. A bit too much WAR still with western ridge axis a tad too far west through about  mid Feb, then h5 look gets very good beyond that. -AO/NAO is prominent throughout.

Don't worry, EPS is speeding up the better pac already. It will prob knock down the war over the weekend so monday's weeklies will be perfect

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Don't worry, EPS is speeding up the better pac already. It will prob knock down the war over the weekend so monday's weeklies will be perfect

Me, worry? lol

But yeah I think the really good look will move forward in time. EPS is moving that way pretty quickly. GEFS is too- better western ridge axis location last couple runs towards D15, and has been pretty gung-ho with legit NA blocking.

 

 

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14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Me, worry? lol

But yeah I think the really good look will move forward in time. EPS is moving that way pretty quickly. GEFS is too- better western ridge axis location last couple runs towards D15, and has been pretty gung-ho with legit NA blocking.

 

 

Lol- yea, I think this is the real deal now. May not hit perfection because it's really hard to never have too much of something and too little of something else. I'm really digging where the eps is going. Broad continental trough with na blocking is one of the few patterns where you can get an long track mecs that drops snow on a really large piece of real estate. In the mean time, fast flow and northern stream activity seems like a lock in the mid range. Def no chance of a long track with that regime. Guidance is showing enough support for some snow before the hammer to keep us optimistic for now. If a real pattern seems imminent and we fail on the the pre arctic shot i really won't mind. My illegal skating pond nearby might have perfect ice conditions. 3 days of sub freezing conditions with single digit lows is all that's necessary for 3.5" of ice. 

 

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29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This is a pretty good h5 mean. Starting to see some consistency with building a west based block and not d15+.

 

Nice NA look on that panel. Indication of a trough near 50-50 with the +heights displaced off of the maritimes, and a ridge pushing into Baffin Bay.

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Still waiting on the SOI to turn negative and it appears that the overnight Euro was not as robust about the cold later in the run. 

What implications this has on any storms to early to tell.  

Daily contribution to SOI calculation 4.43

 

 

 

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This should spark something if correct.

A very robust signal there ( and only a few days away )

I believe the AO would react to going severely negative. If this were to occur I imagine a lag and this is pegged tp happen near Feb  1 st. 

( and continue beyond this date ) 

 

 

 

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