LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 22 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: wind chills may be as cold as -15 monday. very 80s like big mixed event, a flash freeze and then windy/dry/cold weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: The models never really waivered on the strength of the WAA with the LLJ. At least we get the front end thump ahead of the P-Type issues. Hopefully, we can get a measurement in the park before the mixing occurs. Hopefully we dont lol. I'd rather the record of futility continue rather than getting an insignificant 1-2 inches that just gets washed away. Question, Chris, how come this was so well modeled even though the shortwave is still out in the Pacific? And until it hits the CONUS is there still time for significant changes? The shortwave isn't due to hit the CONUS for 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 39 minutes ago, tek1972 said: Monday is a holiday which is great timing. Many people will be off the roads. Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk Most corporations including mine are open on Monday. It’s more of a day observed by government and schools, not the private sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: Most corporations including mine are open on Monday. It’s more of a day observed by government and schools, not the private sector. Yup same here. Working Monday in fact starting a new job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 If someone doesn’t mind can someone post the eps.... hear it’s colder and east of the EURO OP run. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The 0z Euro/U.K. have my attention. I feel for you guys out east; but I lost power for 4 days last winter; this could be a repeat. South west Morris County looks like it never cracks 32 on surface and at 84 is getting shellacked with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: very 80s like big mixed event, a flash freeze and then windy/dry/cold weather Don't remind me... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Most corporations including mine are open on Monday. It’s more of a day observed by government and schools, not the private sector. I'm pretty sure all of the financial markets are all closed though, obviously only a segment of the labor force but a sizeable one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edubbs83 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Yup same here. Working Monday in fact starting a new job. All banks closed and wall st too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Something like the Nam would be good for us, it keeps surface temps below freezing for the duration of the storm with a lot of sleet/ice. The Nam is a much better tool for temperatures than the Gfs in these cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Something like the Nam would be good for us, it keeps surface temps below freezing for the duration of the storm with a lot of sleet/ice. The Nam is a much better tool for temperatures than the Gfs in these cases. I dont know how good ice is but it does look pretty on the trees. If it does stay close to freezing or just below then the Jan 94, VD 07 and St Paddy's Day 07 analogs come into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Something like the Nam would be good for us, it keeps surface temps below freezing for the duration of the storm with a lot of sleet/ice. The Nam is a much better tool for temperatures than the Gfs in these cases. 12k Nam has near a foot of frozen precip for the coast ( never changes to rain after some snow ) Alot of ice and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Something like the Nam would be good for us, it keeps surface temps below freezing for the duration of the storm with a lot of sleet/ice. The Nam is a much better tool for temperatures than the Gfs in these cases. 100% agreed. Not sure why any forecast would solely be on the basis on the GFS, actually the GFS depiction is just wrong saying it for days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12k Nam has near a foot of frozen precip for NYC ( never changes to rain after some snow ) Alot of ice and sleet. That would be devastating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 12k Nam has near a foot of frozen precip for NYC ( never changes to rain after some snow ) Alot of ice and sleet. That would be devastating 88 when are we inside the Nams wheelhouse ? Is it there yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 12k Nam has near a foot of frozen precip for the coast ( never changes to rain after some snow ) Alot of ice and sleet. No it doesn't. A 10:1 map yes. But realistically NAM is 5-6" before mid levels torch. I'd sign on the dotted line but no where near a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: No it doesn't. A 10:1 map yes. But realistically NAM is 5-6" before mid levels torch. I'd sign on the dotted line but no where near a foot. I said frozen precip, not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: No it doesn't. A 10:1 map yes. But realistically NAM is 5-6" before mid levels torch. I'd sign on the dotted line but no where near a foot. Yes this isn't a Feb 1920 3 day storm deal lol. You divide the total by five to get it from 10:1 to 2:1 which is how sleet equates to liquid, and you get 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: 88 when are we inside the Nams wheelhouse ? Is it there yet Nam has been doing well lately. Nam should be taken seriously starting at 22z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: I said frozen precip, not snow. What's the liquid equivalent of all the frozen precip, Ant? Is it 1.25" liquid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, LibertyBell said: Yes this isn't a Feb 1920 3 day storm deal lol. You divide the total by five to get it from 10:1 too 2:1 which is how sleet equates to liquid, and you get 2-3" 12 inches of sleet is not going to happen but that run was all frozen precip for NYC with rain just to the east. I guess the cad hanged on longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Nam has been doing well lately. Nam should be taken seriously starting at 22z today. NAM has been on a good roll since 2016 for short range stuff, once within 48 hrs it should be taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, LibertyBell said: What's the liquid equivalent of all the frozen precip, Ant? Is it 1.25" liquid? Little less than that but we aren't going to see that much unless the low shifts more south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Nam has been doing well lately. Nam should be taken seriously starting at 22z today. Thanks I knew it was getting close,,,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: I said frozen precip, not snow. Probably about .7" QPF frozen. The rest is 29-31° rain. Saying a foot is extremely misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: 12 inches of sleet is not going to happen but that run was all frozen precip for NYC with rain just to the east. I guess the cad hanged on longer. Okay so rain starts at the Nassau border? Okay so let's say we say it's 1.20 total liquid half snow and half sleet (forget about freezing rain for now- that doesn't get measured as frozen precip), that makes it 0.6 liquid as snow, or about 6 inches, plus a little over an inch (1.2) as sleet, so we'd end up with about 7.2 inches total frozen (snow/sleet combo). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Probably about .7" QPF frozen. The rest is 29-31° rain. Saying a foot is extremely misleading. If thats half snow and half sleet and take 10:1 for snow and 2:1 for sleet, you end up with 3.5 inches of snow and 0.7 inch as sleet or a total of 4.2 inches of frozen precip (snow/sleet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just saw the EURO ensembles... wow love the south leaning guidance. Definitely more SE plots so that would argue that the EURO at 6z was too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 This could be the kind of situation where areas along the south shore of NYC (JFK, southern Brooklyn, Rockaway, Staten Island) change to rain and have temps 33-35 while upper Manhattan and Bronx have freezing rain/sleet with temps 28-32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 22 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Just saw the EURO ensembles... wow love the south leaning guidance. Definitely more SE plots so that would argue that the EURO at 6z was too warm. Probably “seeing” the storm/energy ejecting farther south in the mid-section of the country then earlier model runs. Thus, it stays a bit farther south as it comes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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