40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Its time to assert its presence. It usually does during the second half of weak modoki seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 Ray, I think this northern stream shortwave ends up digging further south in the end, it already shows that on water vapor imagery over Canada. The HIRES models will be better at handling these dynamics better than the operational global models will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 If the N stream trends just a bit sharper then this could be an advisory event. Obviously time is starting to run thin so we'll have to see it very soon. Right now is prob just forecast a C-1" with maybe a 2" spot...but some of these solutions have the look of this trying to pop at the last second. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If the N stream trends just a bit sharper then this could be an advisory event. Obviously time is starting to run thin so we'll have to see it very soon. Right now is prob just forecast a C-1" with maybe a 2" spot...but some of these solutions have the look of this trying to pop at the last second. Need it a bit further S too, to stave of BL warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1-3” NH border south seems prudent except s Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 I didn’t think it was that bad for interior SE MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 18z NAM will be a predicament towards what should happen on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 18z NAM will be a predicament towards what should happen on Thursday. faux pas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: faux pas? I was wrong, it seems the 6z/18z runs are less amplified than the 00z/12z runs for some reason. I guess have to rely solely on the 00z/12z runs, new data streaming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 NAM looks worse at 18z. Showery look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: NAM looks worse at 18z. Showery look 00z will spark right up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Pretty easy as this seems to be northern stream driven, CNE/NNE 1-3", Mid coast/DE Maine could be 2-4"+ right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 00z will spark right up Meh... it’s a marginal setup in terms of temps and precipitation... this could easily look exactly like the new NAM shows, if not worse. Its a step back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Nice 1-2” look south of the NH border and away from coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nice 1-2” look south of the NH border and away from coast Care to post the 18z run since we're 6hrs sooner. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Care to post the 18z run since we're 6hrs sooner. Hint: it’s not nearly as good. That’s why it wasn’t posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Not a lot of moisture being mainly northern stream driven, But you get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Not a lot of moisture being mainly northern stream driven, But you get the idea. Nice upslope event as per usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Nice upslope event as per usual. Those areas just keep winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 The eps actually looked the best out of anything for this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 18z NAM looked like KaKa. Agree with Scott that EPS were actually pretty interesting. Prob some advisory solutions mixed in there. Root for sharper N stream and it prob also helps if a little bit of vorticity energy escapes the southwest system so it can pull a little extra moisture into the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 18z NAM looked like KaKa. Agree with Scott that EPS were actually pretty interesting. Prob some advisory solutions mixed in there. Root for sharper N stream and it prob also helps if a little bit of vorticity energy escapes the southwest system so it can pull a little extra moisture into the trough. That is exactly what the 12z HIRES models showed this morning/afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Wait for the 00Z models and let's see if this is going to gather some steam or fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 18z RGEM looked good pike north into CNE/NNE with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 RGEM looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 hours ago, dryslot said: Pretty potent s/w so there is some potential there, Right now 1-3" is reasonable. We wouldn't toss the EURO. Better snow growth temps in the interior, usually these clipper type northern streams can put down a decent stripe of snow, especially hilly terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 58 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Nice upslope event as per usual. Those are over-done. It's not really an upslope situation. The meso-models often mistake riming for actual precipitation so you get those highly jacked totals on the peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: We wouldn't toss the EURO. Better snow growth temps in the interior, usually these clipper type northern streams can put down a decent stripe of snow, especially hilly terrain. I'd take 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We wouldn't toss the EURO. Better snow growth temps in the interior, usually these clipper type northern streams can put down a decent stripe of snow, especially hilly terrain. Goods spot here for these typically especially if they get going sooner when they hit the atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd take 2". RGEM at 18z is pretty similar to the Euro in axis. Gotta get some south of the Pike for that crowd though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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