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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations

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20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It looks fine to me, latest Euro was really nice for us and I just need it cold enough to snow. Who cares about arctic cold otherwise.

You don't necessarily need the MJO in those phases, you just want it to stay absent which is what is progged to happen. 

seems like it's been more unpredictable than usual this year (MJO)  Agree on the cold- 0 degree cold is not likely to net us much....

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45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

:lol: based on what?!?!?   

Mjo going into the COD

I guess you haven't been following everyone's thoughts.

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11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Mjo going into the COD

I guess you haven't been following everyone's thoughts.

Not too many people expected the high amplitude phase 5 in Dec or the recent quick return to unfavorable, so let’s hope that forecast for neutral pans out

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Just now, Snowshack said:

Not too many people expected the high amplitude phase 5 in Dec or the recent quick return to unfavorable, so let’s hope that forecast for neutral pans out

that's the point I was trying to make above...folks said that once we got out of the last warm phase that we were all set and just as it was preparing to go through a ride from 7/8/1 it went back into the COD and popped out around 5 again and with some moderate amplitude.   Even JB says today that it's not what he wants to see....

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

that's the point I was trying to make above...folks said that once we got out of the last warm phase that we were all set and just as it was preparing to go through a ride from 7/8/1 it went back into the COD and popped out around 5 again and with some moderate amplitude.   Even JB says today that it's not what he wants to see....

Whatever JB or anyone else wants to see doesn't mean a thing. I have seen people on these boards call for a turnaround every year. Sometimes it happens sometimes not. Like I said elsewhere, it's like a medium doing a cold reading, you are bound to get some things right just from random chance. My unscientific take is that the writing is on the wall for this winter, and was the minute it snowed in Nov. But I would never take that to the bank because it would be foolish. I don't know the future or I'd by a winning lottery ticket. And as I've said, hope springs eternal. And we've got Anthony cheering us on....

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

Whatever JB or anyone else wants to see doesn't mean a thing. I have seen people on these boards call for a turnaround every year. Sometimes it happens sometimes not. Like I said elsewhere, it's like a medium doing a cold reading, you are bound to get some things right just from random chance. My unscientific take is that the writing is on the wall for this winter, and was the minute it snowed in Nov. But I would never take that to the bank because it would be foolish. I don't know the future or I'd by a winning lottery ticket. And as I've said, hope springs eternal. And we've got Anthony cheering us on....

we all love storms and cold in the winter, but I tend to agree, this year is not going to plan-yes the pattern changed but the sensible weather is more of the same...the cold we've had has been dry and eventless for the most part.    Hoping for a change, but looks like we're looking to Feb now (or very close to it) and going essentially snowless for 2/3 of met winter....hope springs eternal fellow weenies!!!!

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

we all love storms and cold in the winter, but I tend to agree, this year is not going to plan-yes the pattern changed but the sensible weather is more of the same...the cold we've had has been dry and eventless for the most part.    Hoping for a change, but looks like we're looking to Feb now (or very close to it) and going essentially snowless for 2/3 of met winter....hope springs eternal fellow weenies!!!!

I will be happy with one decent event. Haven't seen too many storms over 8 inches here since 2016.

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46 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

we all love storms and cold in the winter, but I tend to agree, this year is not going to plan-yes the pattern changed but the sensible weather is more of the same...the cold we've had has been dry and eventless for the most part.    Hoping for a change, but looks like we're looking to Feb now (or very close to it) and going essentially snowless for 2/3 of met winter....hope springs eternal fellow weenies!!!!

People have said the 2nd half of January will get better. You don't listen to anyone. We have told you ( on other forums also) , the pattern is going to get better and now the models show it . January isn't over yet. We will have more chances this month.

 

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55 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Whatever JB or anyone else wants to see doesn't mean a thing. I have seen people on these boards call for a turnaround every year. Sometimes it happens sometimes not. Like I said elsewhere, it's like a medium doing a cold reading, you are bound to get some things right just from random chance. My unscientific take is that the writing is on the wall for this winter, and was the minute it snowed in Nov. But I would never take that to the bank because it would be foolish. I don't know the future or I'd by a winning lottery ticket. And as I've said, hope springs eternal. And we've got Anthony cheering us on....

Look at the pattern and then get back to me. The mjo is going into the COD and the lag for the ssw is up.

Things will quickly change for the better. It sucks right now but it's only January.

Remember 2016? 

Alot of places didn't get their 1st major storm until the blizzard.

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3 hours ago, Snowshack said:

Not too many people expected the high amplitude phase 5 in Dec or the recent quick return to unfavorable, so let’s hope that forecast for neutral pans out

No but majority of people said this will be a backloaded winter.

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A significant snowstorm is getting underway across parts of New York State and northern New England. By the time the snow ends tomorrow, several cities in that region could have their highest snowfall on record for the January 19-20 period. Along the coastal plain, strong warm air advection will limit snowfall amounts.

Daily and 2-day snowfall records for select cities are below:

Snow01182019.jpg

The SOI was +8.86 today. Nevertheless, it has been negative for 15 out of the last 19 days. The SOI will likely go negative within 5-7 days.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.384. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.064.

On January 18, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.443 (RMM). That amplitude was slightly higher than the January 17-adjusted figure of 1.202.

Since regular recordkeeping on the MJO began in 1974, no January snowstorm brought 6" or more to New York City when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.000 or above. There were two cases where New York City received 1.5" or more (January 13-14, 1978 and January 26-27, 1994). Both winters took a dramatic snowy turn afterward.

The MJO will likely continue to advance through Phase 4 and into and into Phases 5 and 6 over the next 4-7 days. Initially, the MJO's amplitude will likely continue to increase, but it appears unlikely that the kind of high amplitudes that characterized late December into the start of January will develop.

With the MJO's likely pushing back toward or into the colder phases near the end of the month, the AO will very likely return to negative values. Strong to perhaps severe blocking could develop in late January. The persistence of such blocking could set the stage for a snowy to perhaps very snowy February in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas.

Following this weekend's storm, there is a risk for two additional storms to impact the region: January 24-25 and January 27-29. The latter storm could be the bigger and snowier one. Details remain uncertain, but the extent of Atlantic blocking will be important.

In fact, the GEFS ensembles show the AO diving around the January 28 timeframe +/- 1 day much as happened just ahead of the January 2005 blizzard. While a big storm is far from assured, the combination of the MJO's moving into its colder phases, strong to severe blocking rapidly developing, and frigid air lurking in Canada suggests real potential.

The probability of a colder than normal average monthly temperature for January in the New York City area has continued to increase with the month possibly finishing on a much colder than normal note.

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If you want to be pessimistic moving forward then I get it, but on paper the pattern looks very favorable for cold & snow starting around the 25/26. 

Ops & ensembles are very good last few days of Jan going into Feb.

PV hangs around Hudson Bay, coldest anomalies are in the Midwest, -AO/NAO, excellent Miller B pattern actually.

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After this event many will have cashed in both to our South and North and we've had plenty to track. Our truly awful winters have seen an overall lack of storms and it was clear mid way through that it would be an early spring. Right now we don't see signs of that at least for the next few weeks so if we don't cash in it will be due to just really bad luck

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23 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Look at the pattern and then get back to me. The mjo is going into the COD and the lag for the ssw is up.

Things will quickly change for the better. It sucks right now but it's only January.

Remember 2016? 

Alot of places didn't get their 1st major storm until the blizzard.

I think that was our first here in Jan 2016 as well. Great storm, but it still didn't have that winter feel; I believe we had one other piddly event in Feb. And it melted so quickly. Hopefully Feb delivers; aside from the Dec 09 storm, we did nothing in 2010 til Feb.

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16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If you want to be pessimistic moving forward then I get it, but on paper the pattern looks very favorable for cold & snow starting around the 25/26. 

Ops & ensembles are very good last few days of Jan going into Feb.

PV hangs around Hudson Bay, coldest anomalies are in the Midwest, -AO/NAO, excellent Miller B pattern actually.

Prefer Miller A's, but will take anything....

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8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

After this event many will have cashed in both to our South and North and we've had plenty to track. Our truly awful winters have seen an overall lack of storms and it was clear mid way through that it would be an early spring. Right now we don't see signs of that at least for the next few weeks so if we don't cash in it will be due to just really bad luck

2002 saw storms to our south; 2007 saw lots to our north IIRC.

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