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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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3 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

A 980 off the coast would have to be throwing some serious moisture back NW...more than depicted

100%! Southeast moisture flow and advection would create lift and wring out the atmosphere. The low is undergoing what would normally transpire off the cape and southeast new england after it passes our latitude. Good stuff 

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I would imagine at that strength favored mountain regions could see SE flow snow for a while afterwards even if not very visible on radar. 

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Personally I think the GFS is just pulling us in and playing with us like a casino, but the model is throwing out interesting looks nevertheless.  The one thing that stands out about the GFS is that it is deeper with the upper low/wave than the other models, and thus, colder.

Here's tonight's UKMet at hr144 - the wave is closed off there in Texas, but it's not very strong / not very deep...and the high pressure strength / positioning isn't as good due to its upper level pattern across central and eastern Canada

z4sKbSF.png

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9 minutes ago, griteater said:

Personally I think the GFS is just pulling us in and playing with us like a casino, but the model is throwing out interesting looks nevertheless.  The one thing that stands out about the GFS is that it is deeper with the upper low/wave than the other models, and thus, colder.

Here's tonight's UKMet at hr144 - the wave is closed off there in Texas, but it's not very strong / not very deep...and the high pressure strength / positioning isn't as good due to its upper level pattern across central and eastern Canada

z4sKbSF.png

Agreed. Even though it looks good, until either the Ukie or Euro pick it up it’s fools gold. Nice to look at though. 

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1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

Agreed. Even though it looks good, until either the Ukie or Euro pick it up it’s fools gold. Nice to look at though. 

The Dec 8&9 storm last year was picked up way early by the GFS ??

 

 

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Ok. Everyone needs to chill out a second. Let me list some things out to keep in mind when discussing a storm like this:

1. This is 180 hours out and pinpointing a "corridor" of snow right now is a fools errand. Multiple models still have the scenario of this thing diving into Florida and being a mild rainstorm with a stiff east breeze for the Carolinas. Including the Euro. 

2. A bowling ball low pressure diving SE-ward then bombing off the coast is incredibly anomalous. 99% of the time, it's not how we get snow here. The "tracks", the imaginary snow walls (Wake County), the highways, and everything else that get used to establish a forecast will likely not work if a GFS-like scenario came into fruition. 

3. I can't stress enough how much convective feedback is going to screw with the surface reflection and ultimately moisture transport with this storm. I would not pay attention at all to the precip shield or anything like that for the time being. The snow maps are fun, and in "paste bombs" could look historic- don't take the bait. 

If you're just learning, convective feedback is an issue some models have when forecasting convection (think: thunderstorms). Global models' grid spacing makes it tough to accurately render convection, and this can "fool" the models into forecasting inaccuracies since convection has a major role in how these synoptic scale will behave.

Case in point; the 00z GFS, here is 850mb vorticity: 

gfs_z850_vort_eus_31.png

  Essentially, the GFS is treating almost every thunderstorm as its own spinning entity. Chances are our system won't be this completely elongated, and moisture transport will be better to our NW.

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5 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

 

2. A bowling ball low pressure diving SE-ward then bombing off the coast is incredibly anomalous. 99% of the time, it's not how we get snow here. The "tracks", the imaginary snow walls (Wake County), the highways, and everything else that get used to establish a forecast will likely not work if a GFS-like scenario came into fruition. 

3. I can't stress enough how much convective feedback is going to screw with the surface reflection and ultimately moisture transport with this storm. I would not pay attention at all to the precip shield or anything like that for the time being. The snow maps are fun, and in "paste bombs" could look historic- don't take the bait. 

If you're just learning, convective feedback is an issue some models have when forecasting convection (think: thunderstorms). Global models' grid spacing makes it tough to accurately render convection, and this can "fool" the models into forecasting inaccuracies since convection has a major role in how these synoptic scale will behave.

Case in point; the 00z GFS, here is 850mb vorticity: 

gfs_z850_vort_eus_31.png

  Essentially, the GFS is treating almost every thunderstorm as its own spinning entity. Chances are our system won't be this completely elongated, and moisture transport will be better to our NW.

I can only remember one similar situation in 39 years and that was the 3/2009 bowling ball that put down 9” across Lincoln/Gaston/Cleveland counties. 

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Ensemble numbers will probably be cut in half this run and there’s only one real big dog in there for the NC/SC Piedmont so your numbers are gonna be skewed by that. 17/21 members have zero snow. Not the sort of ensemble trend you want to see this early in the game. 

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Brad P posted this graphic in his video a week or so ago about the small ice event from this past week. It’s great to keep in mind for stuff like this. Right now, we’re still very much in the “looking at trends” phase. We’re not looking at amounts, we’re not looking at precip shields, we’re seeing if trends continue in the right direction. Today? We had a couple small steps in the right direction on one model and an ensemble.

We still have a long way to go, if we’re lucky!

08F43479-12B2-48B0-8AFA-A0BDFB49BB50.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Brad P posted this graphic in his video a week or so ago about the small ice event from this past week. It’s great to keep in mind for stuff like this. Right now, we’re still very much in the “looking at trends” phase. We’re not looking at amounts, we’re not looking at precip shields, we’re seeing if trends continue in the right direction. Today? We had a couple small steps in the right direction on one model and an ensemble.

We still have a long way to go, if we’re lucky!

 

Don't forget this, as the storm trends the wrong way

 

kubler-1024x806-1-1024x806.jpg

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6z gfs is just a thing of beauty. Just an absolute raking for the I40 area north. Storm goes from MYR to inside Wilmington to RIC. 

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46 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

6z gfs is just a thing of beauty. Just an absolute raking for the I40 area north. Storm goes from MYR to inside Wilmington to RIC. 

6z was too warm from what i saw.. only mountain snow.

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Euro came close last night, if the HP stayed, had no GLL,, and the CAD was just a little better it would be on the board for

Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk




.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Sunday: Upper level heights begin to rise as a
ridge axis develops west of the fcst area Wed. A stg subs zone will
encompass the region beginning Wed afternoon...which will allow a
1028 mb sfc high to transit the se/rn states into Fri. This setup
will return clearing skies and cooler max/min temps...altho near or
just below normal levels each day. By Fri night...a developing h5
trof will dig across the ern CONUS which will be a weather maker for
the FA into the weekend. Much uncertainty exists during this time
frame as the GFS and ECMWF models are at odds with the details of
the trof config. The GFS is developing a closed low within the trof
and diving it across GA/SC and off the Atl coast thru Sat...while
the ECMWF keeps a faster non/closed trof axis crossing the area with
limited coastal sfc low development. The GFS scenario would bring a
decent amt of wintry precip to the FA as colder air would have more
time to be advected south as the low deepens off the coast. The
latest ECMWF on the other hand keeps the better moisture axis over
the ern zones with a limited freezing sfc-layer potential. Its
interesting that the 00z ECMWF has trended more inline with the
colder and moister GFS soln...however this system will be monitored
over the upcoming week and much can change with the sensible weather
fcst. So for now...have a low-end chance sn or -ra/sn mix over the
northern zones Fri night with limited/nil snow accums.


.

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1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Euro came close last night, if the HP stayed, had no GLL,, and the CAD was just a little better it would be on the board for

Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk
 

That's alot of ifs

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