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Holston_River_Rambler

December 8-10 Storm Discussion

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There are some places in North Knox that are already 36, if Wunderground stations are accurate. Hopefully this heavier precip. will start to get the job done. 
According to NWS mesoscale analysis the 925 above 0 C line has just drastically shrunk.

37.3 on my Davis Ins


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4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looks like we have some snow in NW TN/SW KY/AR.  Who do we have out there?  Tag them if you know them.... @Will (little rock), you seeing anything yet?

All ZR here in Union City so far`, and no snow yet.  Only sticking on elevated surfaces, for now.  Memphis just upgraded us to WSW.

dec8.JPG

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3 minutes ago, WestTennWX said:

All ZR here in Union City so far`, and no snow yet.  Only sticking on elevated surfaces, for now.  Memphis just upgraded us to WSW.

dec8.JPG

Huge thanks for the update.  Keep us posted.

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I just saw where MRX upgraded Hamblen to the WSW now calling for 4-7in!

I think you’ll see them do this a county or two at a time.


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3 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Keep me posted as a western chase is better logistically for me than an eastern one. Just light freezing rain in the Bluff right now. Roads are fine ATM. 

Will do. It's 31 here now, roads are pretty much ok, aside from overpasses.  It will be interesting to see when the changeover to sleet occurs...it's been a steady rain for the better part of this evening, and still coming down steadily now. 

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Sitting now at temp of 37° in East Knoxville. Rain has increased... no frozen anything yet... at least I don't think... dew point is showing 34°.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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4 minutes ago, bearman said:

Just noticed MRX lowered snow totals for Knoxville area to less than one half inch.  Hope they are wrong.

The WWA which includes Knoxville was updated about 30 minutes ago and says 2-4 inches.

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Maybe so would love to see them add a few more. I mean they already have Jefferson as up to 4in. If they hit that, it would be WSW criteria. I guess we’ll see how it transpires. They probably won’t though because that wording implies only isolated spots receiving 4in. Maybe this system will be so dynamic it will get everyone into good snow and we’ll all wake up smiling tomorrow. One can hope right?!

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New Disco from a few minutes ago from Morristown:

 
As the winter weather events approaches late tonight into early
Sunday morning models are beginning to come in to better agreement
but still highly uncertain where the strong gradient in snowfall
totals will setup. A surface lows is currently tracking along the
northern Gulf as an upper level trough progresses across the
Lower Mississippi River Valley. Surface temperatures are currently
in the 30s areawide. There are a few locations in the higher
elevations and in SW VA that are currently below freezing but most
of us will need help from some dry air advection and dynamic
cooling from heavy precipitation.

Looking at the current radar, the main band of precipitation that
will bring snowfall to the area is still back in Arkansas. Models
have this rotating through the forecast area Sunday morning. In
fact, some of the NAM model soundings indicate around 100 J/Kg of
elevated CAPE early Sunday. The lift is fairly impressive in this
band as the surface low transitions to the GA coast. Snowfall
totals will be highly dependent upon where this band tracks and
just how much cooling occurs under this precipitation. With models
continuing to trend towards higher amounts in this band, adjusted
amounts up slightly for locations in extreme NE TN and SW VA.
Most models suggest there will be a strong gradient in amounts
just to the north of the Knoxville metro area. Model soundings
have a nearly isothermal profile along the 0 degree Celsius
isotherm below 700 mb or so for portions of the central and
northern Tennessee Valley. Based on the latest guidance and
forecast went ahead and extended the warning and advisory slightly
southwestward.

Also, for the update cut back on snowfall totals across the
southern Valley. Model soundings suggest that most locations will
stay enough above freezing to keep precipitation mostly rain. Even
if there was a brief mixture, do not think much would be able to
stick with temperatures staying just a couple of degrees above
freezing.

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16 minutes ago, realdeal2414 said:

Local meteorologist here in the tri cities just now said possibility of up to a foot in spots in the tri cities area. Getting snow now on Kingsport.

Mark Reynolds(WJHL) just said not to be surprised if some spots in the TRI will have one foot of snow...up to two feet in western North Carolina.

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Just now, PowellVolz said:

This doesn’t feel like it’s going as planned. My snow battered syndrome is kicking in.


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I'm trying to be patient too.  Models on most every run showed the changeover being around 3 or 4 am here and 7 to 8 am around Knox. But the early snow/slush falling got my hopes up early. 

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3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I'm trying to be patient too.  Models on most every run showed the changeover being around 3 or 4 am here and 7 to 8 am around Knox. But the early snow/slush falling got my hopes up early. 

Glad to know I'm not the only guy with issues.

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This is certainly an interesting case study of the modeling if nothing else.  I hope a decent chunk of the forum gets to enjoy some snow falling at some point.  Temps have always been a concern here in west Knox.  It would take incredible rates and a lot of luck for us to see anything crazy.  Day ain't over yet though!

:guitar:

 

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I’m chasing from Seymour...just made it to Walmart in Morristown. All rain but car is reading 35...hit a pocket of 40• in Kodak at exit 407. 

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Yeah, keep in mind that it is still really early and I hadn't originally expected a full changeover to snow until around 3-4AM at my location. I've got a slushy accumulation on everything that isn't pavement. Sleet/graupel mix with flakes right now. We're no where near the meat of the event and I expect the column will continue to cool despite the nose. May be near, perhaps after dawn before TYS sees anything significant as far as snowfall. KTRI should be all snow well before then.

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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Yeah, keep in mind that it is still really early and I hadn't originally expected a full changeover to snow until around 3-4AM at my location. I've got a slushy accumulation on everything that isn't pavement. Sleet/graupel mix with flakes right now. We're no where near the meat of the event and I expect the column will continue to cool despite the nose. May be near, perhaps after dawn before TYS sees anything significant as far as snowfall. KTRI should be all snow well before then.

I don't understand what is causing the warm pocket over me. I feel like I'm in the worst location for miles around. Every short range models shows me under freezing rain all night. I checked the hourly forecast for Honaker and then I checked the forecast for Lebanon just a hop and skip down the road (It shouldn't look that different). Here is Honaker's hourly forecast: https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/24260:4:US Here is Lebanon's forecast: https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/USVA0426:1:US The thing is things are looking a heck of a lot more like Lebanon right now. It doesn't seem to be related to a warmnose in the upper levels of the atmosphere but rather it seems to be a local phenomena caused by local factors that still affect the upper levels. If the radar is right everywhere else in the region is getting hammered. I thought I could dismiss this look on the High-res models but noooo.... I just can't seem to win. It's one thing to be stuck in the situation deep in the valley with expectation of this. It's another thing to be surrounded by heavy snow on an upper level heat island "screw over zone" in a generally positive climate relatively speaking. I wish I had or at least knew how to access products that would show the current temperatures at the upper levels. I'm taking a direct slap to the face. I hope, I HOPE I'm wrong with this but it's looking likely this is how things go. As for assigning a term for this as I believe I mentioned earlier is this the downslope? Good luck everyone else I'll enjoy my long stay in ZR hell. I haven't been this frustrated with the weather in a long time.ScrewYouAlexEnhancedEdition.thumb.png.da47f113a8e3abfb7d2e94fd04e7de29.png

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I don't understand what is causing the warm pocket over me. I feel like I'm in the worst location for miles around. Every short range models shows me under freezing rain all night. I checked the hourly forecast for Honaker and then I checked the forecast for Lebanon just a hop and skip down the road (It shouldn't look that different). Here is Honaker's hourly forecast: https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/24260:4:US Here is Lebanon's forecast: https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/USVA0426:1:US The thing is things are looking a heck of a lot more like Lebanon right now. It doesn't seem to be related to a warmnose in the upper levels of the atmosphere but rather it seems to be a local phenomena caused by local factors that still affect the upper levels. If the radar is right everywhere else in the region is getting hammered. I thought I could dismiss this look on the High-res models but noooo.... I just can't seem to win. It's one thing to be stuck in the situation deep in the valley with expectation of this. It's another thing to be surrounded by heavy snow on an upper level heat island "screw over zone" in a generally positive climate relatively speaking. I wish I had or at least knew how to access products that would show the current temperatures at the upper levels. I'm taking a direct slap to the face. I hope, I HOPE I'm wrong with this but it's looking likely this is how things go. As for assigning a term for this as I believe I mentioned earlier is this the downslope? Good luck everyone else I'll enjoy my long stay in ZR hell. I haven't been this frustrated with the weather in a long time.ScrewYouAlexEnhancedEdition.thumb.png.da47f113a8e3abfb7d2e94fd04e7de29.png

Downsloping off Clinch Mtn perhaps? There may also be downsloping off Holston Mtn, but I am far enough away that it isn't affecting me.

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37 minutes ago, Reb said:

Euro looking good. I know it’s nowcast but still nice to sss

A77FE8D3-F3E8-49F3-8C7E-35982CA4D064.png

Euro upticked the second piece of energy again, while slightly backing off on how far this initial changeover this morning can get. For areas from TYS to Crossvile south, the secondary energy looks to be a lot better shot at something sticking.

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The 925 and 850s are so bad at this point I'll be surprised if they can work out anywhere outside extreme NE areas. 925 was right below me at 9:45. Now its way up in Kentucky. The 850 has shot into Ohio.  Hopefully the NE areas can hold on, but the warm nose is as strong as any I've seen for the track the low is taking and the relative weakness of it.  You'd think it was 992 the way it's pumped up temps.

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