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Holston_River_Rambler

December 8-10 Storm Discussion

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3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I'm almost certain the  point and click are generated almost directly off the GFS.

Yup. Furthermore, the grids and zone products aren't even close to matching up, and neither particularly agree with updated watch/warning products. 

Jumping aboard the MRX hate train will do absolutely nothing to resolve this forecast. That said, we're witnessing another winter storm with inconsistent messaging and relative disregard of forecast models not named GFS. 

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The biggest issue I have with the point and click is how often they have rain to snow to rain to snow in them, solely based on whether it's day or night. I've watched a whole lot of these events and I don't recall ever seeing one where it switched back and forth in that fashion as much as they forecast. Either the dynamics are there for snow and it does, or they aren't and it rains. At least in the zone forecast it pretty much says it will rain or snow or sleet. Not really that all three will be going back and forth as the point and click seems to think.

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Some ugly Freezing Rain totals on the NAM and 3K
1474857531_zr_acc.us_ov(1).thumb.png.4b4d000dd12260014c9c20899498543d.png
zr_acc.us_ov.thumb.png.80a7163308376f81a0134978fa3bc560.png
Just noticed that for KTRI. Of course, still early in meso land and subject to change, but .25 to .4 with significant heavy snow on top would be disgusting. Models were hinting/showing this last night and I want no part of it. As I said last night as well, hopefully initial rain will transition to sleet quickly and then that forcing turns all snow in short order and remains snow through conclusion of event by Monday AM.

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2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Per JKL the 18z and 0z runs will finally have fully sampled data from the wave in California. The 12z runs did not.

That could definitely explain the spreads on the EPS members then.

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If and it's still quite and if at this point, the system actually comes back on the models as the 12z and now 18z suite seem to suggest, what a score for the FV3. It's the only one that hasn't really flinched. Between that and it basically having even surface features almost exactly right from 9 days away say good things are possibly coming from the model.

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4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

18z RGEM HR 48 is .10"-.25" Freezing rain with .50" sleet in NE TN...just started changeover with plenty more moisture to come.

Would be some serious pingers in that mess.

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1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z GFS has trended NW w 2-4" over NE TN where it had nothing two runs ago.  Not sure I would call it a cave to the northwest trend...but a definite bend in that direction.

In the 2015 event I referenced earlier, the GFS never did catch up, no models did fully. But any NW movement with the precip is part of the trend.

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Regarding runs from 12z onward, I do think(eyeballing and not looking at pressures) that the slp along the GOM looks better organized on most runs and that makes the system a bit juicier....a few millibars deeper makes a big difference.  In some cases, the slp almost points a fire hose right at the high pressure.

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11 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

I dream of being under snowfall rates that great... I am put under an artillery bombardment on the RGEM!

 

I noticed that for MBY on the 18z 3k NAM.  It looked like a band developed at the tail end (almost like a squall line) and lifted north throughout northeast TN.  The snow shows as red, the highest possible intensity.  Pretty crazy!

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4 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I noticed that for MBY on the 18z 3k NAM.  It looked like a band developed at the tail end (almost like a squall line) and lifted north throughout northeast TN.  The snow shows as red, the highest possible intensity.  Pretty crazy!

Oh yeah, I noticed too I'd be willing to bet we'd have some thundersnow with that. That is something I have never witnessed/heard. Although to tell you the truth I'm just thankful I have precipitation shown over me at this point.

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Welp, Here we go again, looks like a nice Cold Rain Event for my area “Southern Valley” ie. Athens. A bit disappointing to have that much moisture and just not enough cold. 

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23 minutes ago, AndyHamachek said:

How is it looking for pigeon forge 

It's looking like snow has become increasingly likely in Pigeon Forge for Sunday morning. Now with that said there are some models that keep the freezing temperatures  in the tri-cities (Kingsport, Johnson City, Bristol) and north of there without a flake falling down there. I believe the later you leave on Sunday morning the more likely you are to get caught in snow. With that said you mention taking I-75 home so if that is the case as you drive south towards Chattanooga you should be safe from the threat.

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Welp, Here we go again, looks like a nice Cold Rain Event for my area “Southern Valley” ie. Athens. A bit disappointing to have that much moisture and just not enough cold. 


I think you have been a little south for the most part this whole time. I’m close to the Union Co line in Knox Co and I’m not sure I’m in the game


.

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27 minutes ago, Kasper said:

Welp, Here we go again, looks like a nice Cold Rain Event for my area “Southern Valley” ie. Athens. A bit disappointing to have that much moisture and just not enough cold. 

FV3 looks like it will throw you a couple inches, still waiting on pivotal to upload for a closer map.

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