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December 8-10 Storm Discussion


Holston_River_Rambler
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Looking at the text output for the 00z FV3 at KTRI. It has .42 falling as snow with ratios about 7:1.  Then another .67 with ratios increasing to around 10:1 as it moves out.  That brings the total of 9.7 inches. Based on soundings, those ratios might be slightly too high but probably not too far off.

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They people who get lucky enough to get snow to fall will see something you rarely ever see if these 4 and 5:1 ratios verify, snowflakes will be the size of the palm of your hand or larger. I've seen that maybe two times in my life. Dynamic cooling event in February 1998 when I got 17 inches of wet wet snow and one day in late April it started snowing at around 40 degrees and flakes as large as my hand were hitting the ground. It snowed 2 inches in about 35 minutes then melted off about 2 hours later.

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10 minutes ago, Math/Met said:

Looking at the text output for the 00z FV3 at KTRI. It has .42 falling as snow with ratios about 7:1.  Then another .67 with ratios increasing to around 10:1 as it moves out.  That brings the total of 9.7 inches. Based on soundings, those ratios might be slightly too high but probably not too far off.

The ratio'd map at Pivotal has Tri at 9 inches. So it seems to work pretty well based on your math, which I trust more.

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Just now, Bango said:

I am happy with my v3 snow totals, but some of the totals in the piedmont would once in a century...

They actually get big 15-20+ inch events more than you'd think. A large part of their snow average is usually built on one big storm every couple of years. We tend to comparatively nickel and dime our way to our averages. I average around 20 inches a year but if I can manage more than 10 inches from any event I will almost always end up above normal for that year because I get a lot of small flow snows like the 2 incher the other day.

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Generally 4-6 inches in NE TN based on the Euro text data. Higher totals as you get closer to the mountains.  The area near the mountains where we were concerned about having downslope issues may end up being the favored spot based on that Euro run.  But as John said, that run had much less precip over northern areas.   

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:arrowhead: Watching computers attempt to hone in on what truly occurs has been a headache. You can disregard the NAM in the long range and argue the bias of the FV3 (still experimental) is likely to be revealed. The CMC is not seen as the most reliable model by a long shot. The GFS and UKIE suddenly seem a lot more sensible relative to the other guidance now. The ECMWF model regarded as the best global model has forecasted a disappointment for the amount of moisture available, the duration of the event, and latitude at which the precipitation shield passes. The past few days have been a roller coaster ride of lows and highs. Today at 12z I thought the euro had finally settled on a general idea of what we would have after it rebounded north from another disappointing run last night. I was wrong. The idea of being able to foresee the weather more than a few days out is greatly challenged especially when it comes to winter weather. Suddenly the idea of this winter storm dropping 10 in. of snow in far southwestern Virginia seems foolish. :( I thought that if things turned away from my favor it would be a gradual action over the course of a couple of runs rather than all at once. If there was a word I could use to describe my demeanor most accurately it would be deflated. Ever since possibly 2015 I do not believe I have seen more than 10 inches of snow on the ground. It's all a mirage. I get to see regions with much more hostile climates enjoy winter storms while I sit in the doldrums. How hard can it be over the course of over 1000 days to have something close to a foot of snow on the ground. The Tennessee Valley just can't seem to get a break. For clarification 10 inches was on the higher end of my expectations but the euro went below 6 inches for that matter. If 0z is reaffirmed by 6z and 12z MRX may as well scrap the watch up here. To any of you who actually manage to get significant snowfall if 850s don't torch I will be happy for you. ^_^ If this comes to fruition my peers whom I shared my thoughts with will dismiss them. I emphasize the likelihood of a major winter storm and 2.5 in falls. So much analyzing so much consideration over many many days and just an inch more than the random snow squall that hit a few days ago occurs... :wacko: In some manner I would feel better if it was raining overhead rather than with little to nothing occurring at all at least then I could say "If it had just been 2 degrees colder I'd have pinned this down." FOR JUST ONCE CAN A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM VERIFY! AHH! :ee: Sigh... I'm glad I got that rant out of my system. There is no point in shaking your fist at the clouds as no matter what we do or say it'll do what it's a gonna do. Mankind's methods of foretelling how the atmosphere may behave are inherently flawed. I'll stop complaining and post more thoughtful speculation to the best of my ability. I find this hobby very satisfying and I have learned so much from all of you. All I can say is thank you for all the collective effort you all have put into our tiny sub-forum. 

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The RGEM should be wintry, it has a 1038 high in Illinois and an 1038 in Central Ohio with the storm moving along the Gulf into Northern Florida. Surface temps are below freezing from Cumberland Gap to Dyersburg. Freezing rain is falling in those areas. It just doesn't go far enough out yet to see what happens after.

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Looks like the GFS is going to slip by and not even send rain north of 40. Hilarious that it shows a Gulf system that warm noses the 850s into Ohio and rockets temps to near 50 on Sunday now, not producing a bigger precipitation shield.  This thing throws up 3.5 inches of precip into Arkansas and it just dies out after. 

The next 2 runs of models will tell us if the GFS is leading the way or if it's completely insane.

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14 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Looks like the GFS is going to slip by and not even send rain north of 40. Hilarious that it shows a Gulf system that warm noses the 850s into Ohio and rockets temps to near 50 on Sunday now, not producing a bigger precipitation shield.  This thing throws up 3.5 inches of precip into Arkansas and it just dies out after. 

The next 2 runs of models will tell us if the GFS is leading the way or if it's completely insane.

What's shutting the pwats down on it?

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3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

What's shutting the pwats down on it?

As crazy as it is, it looks like the winds never turn S or SW at either 700 or 850 on there. On the NAM they are screaming out of the South/Southwest and that pumps in the moisture. The GFS went from having the highest dew points to the lowest. They never get out of the 20s for anywhere north of 40 during the whole time the low is passing by. Which would be great if the moisture was being transported north like you'd expect from a Gulf low.

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2 minutes ago, Reb said:

GFS has to be off its rocker, right? We will find out soon enough...

off topic- John do you even sleep? Lmao! Thanks for keeping us abreast of the situation! Really appreciate it.

Not during the winter! I actually sleep around 3-4 hours a day. I never seem to need more. As for the GFS. Not sure. Maybe storms in the Gulf are effecting the moisture transport. It often under performs on precip shields, well known bias of the model and all the models are trending south with the precip. 

This is actually similar to my worst snow bust memory back in the 1980s when we were forecast to get a foot of snow one Sunday night from a miller A, woke up the next morning expecting no school, not a flake of snow or drop of rain had fallen. Winter Storm warnings busted all across East Tennessee. Precip didn't make it over the Tennessee line. I don't remember any specifics that caused it, but I imagine it could have been storms robbing moisture.

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