Rtd208 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Picked up 0.28" of rain so far today. Current temp 46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes, 1966-67 was a lot snowier. I was focusing on atypical December SOI cases during El Niño winters and what followed in January (big pattern change with abundant Atlantic blocking). Don, there's certainly a good case for an above average snowfall winter, the pattern from mid January to the end of February certainly looks like it would be really good, and in our new wet climate, we could really pile it up during that period, but it seems like it would fall somewhat short of historic. Still, something like 40-45" of snow on the season would be nothing to sneeze at and a very good winter regardless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: If we have a ratter it will rank up there as one of the biggest busts in LR forecasting in a long time-most had this as a decent/snowy winter. Still time to save it, but we are wasting precious weeks now approaching the heart of winter. We have to go a long way to beat 2001-02 in that regard and I doubt that will happen. Our snow season wont really get going until mid January anyway- perhaps even the last 10 days of January. Let's see what we can do between then and the end of February. People can start talking about ratters if we have less than 20" seasonal snowfall on March 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: If we have a ratter it will rank up there as one of the biggest busts in LR forecasting in a long time-most had this as a decent/snowy winter. Still time to save it, but we are wasting precious weeks now approaching the heart of winter. This—I don’t think I read any LR forecast that described a less than snowy winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: We have to go a long way to beat 2001-02 in that regard and I doubt that will happen. Our snow season wont really get going until mid January anyway- perhaps even the last 10 days of January. Let's see what we can do between then and the end of February. People can start talking about ratters if we have less than 20" seasonal snowfall on March 1. I’m not questioning you personally. My question is more of—how are so many people so confident in the upcoming pattern change, turn to colder and snowier winter? Haven’t we all been burned before when speaking in absolutes as it relates to weather? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: We have to go a long way to beat 2001-02 in that regard and I doubt that will happen. Our snow season wont really get going until mid January anyway- perhaps even the last 10 days of January. Let's see what we can do between then and the end of February. People can start talking about ratters if we have less than 20" seasonal snowfall on March 1. too early indeed, but it's concerning that models show a good pattern 10 days out and it never moves up in time-that's a sign of a possible ratter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Did the SOI spike cause the following stall in the MJO? THIS would be very concerning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Just now, Brian5671 said: too early indeed, but it's concerning that models show a good pattern 10 days out and it never moves up in time-that's a sign of a possible ratter. Yeah I thought we were going to get at least a modest snow event a couple of days after New Years lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks Chris, it sounds like the reason for this might be that early season great patterns dont last very long, not like they do if a great pattern started in, lets say the last week of December (a la 2010-11). So getting a great pattern in the middle of November, gives us an area of subsidence (figuratively speaking lol) in December. But the above list of years also did confirm what my intuition said that 40" of snow should be the most we should expect for the season- although in our current wet climate, who knows, we might set a new precedent. 1896 was the only year in the bunch that had a snowy December. It's been tough to get a really snowy December here since the Boxing Day Blizzard In 2010. Just a remarkable December run from 2000 to 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: We have to go a long way to beat 2001-02 in that regard and I doubt that will happen. Our snow season wont really get going until mid January anyway- perhaps even the last 10 days of January. Let's see what we can do between then and the end of February. People can start talking about ratters if we have less than 20" seasonal snowfall on March 1. I don’t think anyone should be spiking the ball at this point. Maybe we do get 50 inches of snow, maybe we don’t. To accurately predict beyond a few days is incredibly difficult, if not impossible. Fascinating how difficult the science is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I’m not questioning you personally. My question is more of—how are so many people so confident in the upcoming pattern change, turn to colder and snowier winter? Haven’t we all been burned before when speaking in absolutes as it relates to weather? No, I'm not saying that for sure we'll reach 40" I'm saying that should be around the ceiling for the most we should expect to get. Sure it could be somewhat better. It could certainly be a lot worse too. Also, I meant let's not talk about winter fails until March 1, when we can look back and actually decipher what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: 1896 was the only year in the bunch that had a snowy December. It's been tough to get a really snowy December here since the Boxing Day Blizzard In 2010. Just a remarkable December run from 2000 to 2010. Our average monthly snowfall totals for December have been falling too. Prior to the 70s I think it was around 6" or so, now it's about half that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: No, I'm not saying that for sure we'll reach 40" I'm saying that should be around the ceiling for the most we should expect to get. Sure it could be somewhat better. It could certainly be a lot worse too. Also, I meant let's not talk about winter fails until March 1, when we can look back and actually decipher what happened. Agree on waiting till March 1—maybe even April 15 the way some winters have gone recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Just now, 495weatherguy said: Agree on waiting till March 1—maybe even April 15 the way some winters have gone recently that's what I hope doesn't happen-we get the -NAO in March and then have to wait til June for good weather (last year) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Just now, Brian5671 said: that's what I hope doesn't happen-we get the -NAO in March and then have to wait til June for good weather (last year) I can’t think of a more miserable outcome. A real spring would be nice 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Our average monthly snowfall totals for December have been falling too. Prior to the 70s I think it was around 6" or so, now it's about half that. It’s been getting tougher to get very snowy Decembers with so many years averaging close to 40 degrees or warmer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: It’s been getting tougher to get very snowy Decembers with so many years averaging close to 40 degrees or warmer. Is March following the same pattern Chris? Not talking about the last few, but overall going over the last few decades or so, have our March average monthly snowfalls also been lowering? They used to average around 6", just like December used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I can’t think of a more miserable outcome. A real spring would be nice The late season snow was nice, but the allergies and humidity that came after that were absolutely horrendous. I never saw a worse allergy season in my entire life- I was taking Benadryl once a week. We had a mini version of that this fall too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 The ongoing rainstorm is a historic December soaker in Asheville, NC: Rainfall amounts: 12/27: 1.02" 12/28: 3.18" (through 8:30 am) Storm Total: 4.20" Notes: - 12/27 rainfall beat the daily record of 1.00", which was set in 1875 - 12/28 rainfall beat the daily record of 2.67", which was set in 1958 - 12/28 rainfall surpassed the December daily record of 2.90", which was set on December 29, 1901 - Storm total: Set a new December record (old 2-day record: 3.62", December 27-28, 1958; old 3-day record: 3.69", December 21-23, 2013) - Annual precipitation reached 78.18" easily exceeding the old annual record of 75.22", which was set in 2013 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Is March following the same pattern Chris? Not talking about the last few, but overall going over the last few decades or so, have our March average monthly snowfalls also been lowering? They used to average around 6", just like December used to. I thooght March has always shown a cyclical tendency in that it goes 25-30 years where it tends to have snowier outcomes and then a cycle where it doesnt. It sure went through a downward phase for awhile prior to the last couple of years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I thooght March has always shown a cyclical tendency in that it goes 25-30 years where it tends to have snowier outcomes and then a cycle where it doesnt. It sure went through a downward phase for awhile prior to the last couple of years Sounds right SnowGoose , growing up in Philly and then moving to Delaware most March months were nothing remarkable during my college and elementary school years, despite my grandmother telling me of epic March snowstorms back in the 1960's and earlier. Seems liked two to three decades passed and nothing awesome, then the past several years and baam realy brutal cold with snow as well. Recall March 2015 possibly as the month where my son had numerous school delays and even closings due to the harsh wind chills, and snow covered bus routes. I am on the side that this March delivers if anything soley based on the trends and this relax along with the backloaded winter potential. Even spoke to Ray and brought up a few March storms the last 40 years that were pretty nasty. Time will tell though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I thooght March has always shown a cyclical tendency in that it goes 25-30 years where it tends to have snowier outcomes and then a cycle where it doesnt. It sure went through a downward phase for awhile prior to the last couple of years The 1950s were particularly notable- March was the snowiest month for that decade, surpassing both January and February! The 60s werent shoddy either with March 1960 being one of the coldest of all time along with an HECS and March 1967 being just as good if not better! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The ongoing rainstorm is a historic December soaker in Asheville, NC: Rainfall amounts: 12/27: 1.02" 12/28: 3.18" (through 8:30 am) Storm Total: 4.20" Notes: - 12/27 rainfall beat the daily record of 1.00", which was set in 1875 - 12/28 rainfall beat the daily record of 2.67", which was set in 1958 - 12/28 rainfall surpassed the December daily record of 2.90", which was set on December 29, 1901 - Storm total: Set a new December record (old 2-day record: 3.62", December 27-28, 1958; old 3-day record: 3.69", December 21-23, 2013) - Annual precipitation reached 78.18" easily exceeding the old annual record of 75.22", which was set in 2013 I have had it with this rain, but Don seriously, the SOI has been stubborn, today back up to rather positive levels. Daily contribution to SOI calculation 18.27 Amazing, wonder if that coincides with a greater likelyhood of a significant reversal in the next month. I think it might. I think the old rubberband will snap soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, frd said: I have had it with this rain, but Don seriously, the SOI has been stubborn, today back up to rather positive levels. Daily contribution to SOI calculation 18.27 Amazing, wonder if that coincides with a greater likelyhood of a significant reversal in the next month. I think it might. I think the old rubberband will snap soon. In all 3 prior December El Niño-SOI+ cases, the SOI averaged <-10.00 during January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: In all 3 prior December El Niño-SOI+ cases, the SOI averaged <-10.00 during January. Wow, very interesting, thanks Don ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Is March following the same pattern Chris? Not talking about the last few, but overall going over the last few decades or so, have our March average monthly snowfalls also been lowering? They used to average around 6", just like December used to. March snowfall has been increasing especially at ISP since the 1960’s. NYC is essentially unchanged since the 1940’s. This may be a result of the seasons getting pushed back a month. Summer lingering into September....fall into December...winter into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: March snowfall has been increasing especially at ISP since the 1960’s. NYC is essentially unchanged since the 1940’s. This may be a result of the seasons getting pushed back a month. Summer lingering into September....fall into December...winter into March. Could be a side effect of anomalously strong blocking. In strong blocking patterns, persistence is favored. Thus summer is delayed, but lasts longer than it used to, and winter is delayed but lasts an extra month also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 6 hours ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Wow. That is one insane jump. 28 Dec 2018 1010.84 1003.60 18.27 9.33 3.79 27 Dec 2018 1008.54 1004.50 1.66 9.23 3.48 26 Dec 2018 1008.83 1005.75 -3.32 9.37 3.39 25 Dec 2018 1009.69 1005.60 1.92 9.48 3.37 24 Dec 2018 1010.56 1005.75 5.66 9.41 3.34 The SOI was more positive this month than any winter month during the La Niña in 16-17 and 17-18. The Pacific has been doing stuff since 2013 we have never seen before. Average SOI for last 30 days9.33Average SOI for last 90 days3.79Daily contribution to SOI calculation18.27 ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/sco/soi/soiplaintext.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 I don’t like seeing that curve back to p6, after entering p7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, TwcMan said: I don’t like seeing that curve back to p6, after entering p7. Imagine if this happens? Winter forecasts will all fail 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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