mappy Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS is probably a sleet/snow/snow grains mix to start with the dry air aloft, but goes over to rain fairly quickly. Probably stays rain/sleet mix for you through 18z. I’m pleased looks like a solid chance of first frozen for most of the subforum. maybe -- you are more optimistic than me. Im looking at the soundings for my area per Pivotal Weather at 12z thursday 31/22, so some lovely dry air aloft to deal with by 18z thursday i'm 32/32 with just a hint of a warm nose aloft ill expect some mangled flakes, or sleet mixed with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Can’t see skewt’s for the FV3 GFS but looks a touch cooler and drier at the surface and a bit warmer at 850 relative to the op GFS. Lord almighty the TT snow algorithm is f-cked up for the FV3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Perhaps an icy Thursday for out my way and I-81. 0.8" of ice would be devastating if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Gefs upped the ante on a slightly colder scenario...most of these members are probably counting sleet as snow...but the takeaway is more frozen is on the table per the 12z run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Euro ends up being several hours faster than 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: Euro ends up being several hours faster than 0z run Which is better right because the cold air is still there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Euro at 96 looks awfully close to being pretty good for our western friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Which is better right because the cold air is still there? Seems like it, yeah. Less time for cold air to escape Also, Euro tries to throw us into action when the ULL swings in. Tries to changeover far NW areas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Which is better right because the cold air is still there? Yes, EURO is a good run many given the time of year. I'm sure many would lock it up. This does all get washed away though. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 hahah if only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yes, EURO is a good run many given the time of year. I'm sure many would lock it up. This does all get washed away though. Be great to just get on the board early. Can we get a shift south though for Eastern HoCo. I don’t want to be that “FRINGED” guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Oh, and I failed in my duty of posting the 6z EURO earlier. 12z is a big improvement snow-wise over the 6z, FWIW. I don't have Kuchera maps on weathermodels, but 6z gets the .5" line just south of D.C., 12z gets the 2" line just south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yes, EURO is a good run many given the time of year. I'm sure many would lock it up. This does all get washed away though. I thought that was the 10:1. Just realized that is the Kuchera. That's a big shift for the Euro. eta: Will be interesting to see if the EPS follows the ops lead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 the different versions of snowfall outputs throw me off. the euro i am looking at on weathermodels has near 7" for me by hr 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Kuchera (or Kuchera divided by 2-10) is the way to go with this event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Kuchera (or Kuchera divided by 2-10) is the way to go with this event. i dont think weathermodels.com has that option for the euro. unless i can't find it either way, no way am i getting 7" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 The wild card in this coming storm will be the closed low at 500 mb and we have seen a good improvement in that regards with the Euro. Seeing that feature come in stronger, quicker and swinging farther south and east as it rolls through our region. Actually getting very close to a good solution in that regards. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: i dont think weathermodels.com has that option for the euro. unless i can't find it either way, no way am i getting 7" of snow lol Ukie says you get ~12" with 10:1 ratios. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 We need the guy with the UKIE snow maps but it moves in precip even faster then the EURO at 72hrs it already has .1" of precip at DCA. It might be a total slam dunk of a run, I just honestly can't analyze it well. I'll dump the maps. The MSLP is kinda crazy, pops a real low off the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: lol Ukie says you get ~12" with 10:1 ratios. thats absurd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 we got 11 inches in 1987....its happened before lol. I like how we are trending towards better instead of worse. This is usually where we start failing 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 Found the UKIE map. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: we got 11 inches in 1987....its happened before lol. I like how we are trending towards better instead of worse. This is usually where we start failing Uh oh... Ji has come out to say something good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 is it time for a storm thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: We need the guy with the UKIE snow maps but it moves in precip even faster then the EURO at 72hrs it already has .1" of precip at DCA. It might be a total slam dunk of a run, I just honestly can't analyze it well. I'll dump the maps. The MSLP is kinda crazy, pops a real low off the coast. Looking at the reaction of the low off the coast leads me to believe that we are seeing a much better interaction with the closed 500 mb low. Not surprising considering we are seeing the same thing with the Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: is it time for a storm thread? I think you're in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 12z EPS should be intriguing to look at to see if it agrees with the OP and maybe is better for some frozen around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 Looking between the surface and 500 mb this is getting close to a very good solution for our region. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Looking between the surface and 500 mb this is getting close to a very good solution for our region. Get that closed low on the VA/NC border and it’s game on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 That 500mb pass is really nice on the Euro. Get that northern stream out of the way just a pinch more and if that slides another 20-50 miles farther south, would be possible to see a changeover back to frozen east of the mountains on Friday morning. Could get some brief heavy precipitation that can drag down some colder air and get a few minutes of fatties. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now