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snowlover2

Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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5 hours ago, Baum said:

  hearing  rumblings of a colder period commencing. If it can stay active maybe we can jackpot yet. Either way, has been a busy 30 days...can't remember this many repeated freezing rain events

 

Storm track should perhaps slide SE with cold air pressing. May open opportunities for OV and EC. Out to 8 to 14 days. 11-16 days cold overwhelms pattern if you believe what the GEFS is selling

 

Screenshot_20190219-193915_Samsung Internet.jpg

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Looks like the next system to watch after tomorrow night's storm system is a wave next Fri or Sat.  The models have been showing something around that time for the past few days.  Doesn't look like a big system, but maybe something to track as we go forward if model trends continue.

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On 2/19/2019 at 8:48 PM, Cary67 said:

Storm track should perhaps slide SE with cold air pressing. May open opportunities for OV and EC. Out to 8 to 14 days. 11-16 days cold overwhelms pattern if you believe what the GEFS is selling

 

Screenshot_20190219-193915_Samsung Internet.jpg

Chicago and S Lakes sure need one good storm to make up for most of MET winter's lameness. (and nothing against those to my west getting a historic run either)

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5 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Chicago and S Lakes sure need one good storm to make up for most of MET winter's lameness. (and nothing against those to my west getting a historic run either)

Make that 1 good SNOW storm. My biggest snowstorm this Winter was 6.1", and it was a nice storm. MET winter has actually been quite active (snow, ice, rollercoaster) since mid Jan. The first half of met winter was trainwreck and no snowstorm in the world can make up for that. Im about long steady winters. Getting.a 3 foot snowstorm in march does not erase a brown December. That said....let it snow!

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Southern lakes will get snow from a clipper, if it was to happen... Southern stream systems will continue the 1:1 ratio stuff.

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3 hours ago, DAFF said:

Southern lakes will get snow from a clipper, if it was to happen... Southern stream systems will continue the 1:1 ratio stuff.

Yep. Wash, rinse, repeat. How does anyone who likes winter endure the state of Ohio??

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3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Make that 1 good SNOW storm. My biggest snowstorm this Winter was 6.1", and it was a nice storm. MET winter has actually been quite active (snow, ice, rollercoaster) since mid Jan. The first half of met winter was train wreck and no snowstorm in the world can make up for that. Im about long steady winters. Getting.a 3 foot snowstorm in march does not erase a brown December. That said....let it snow!

Agree with you that getting zero snow for 6 wks of MET winter is "inexcusable", nonetheless 4 storms and a couple surprise LES events have managed to find mby so my largest gripe is the rapid torch-offs when we did get decent snowfall. Back in 82-83 it was much worse. Waited all winter without enough snow to even remember. Then, just when you thought it was over, one final storm on the spring equinox hit with a solid 10". It was a nice consolation bone chucked our way. I'd be fine with something like that to cap this rough winter. I'd really like a monster snowstorm though, and this region used to get biggies in March during my youth. I think you could argue we're over-due actually for a March monster

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Setup on the GFS for next weekend looks strangely familiar.  I know I've seen a farther northwest version of it very recently.  I just can't quite put my finger on it.  

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Setup on the GFS for next weekend looks strangely familiar.  I know I've seen a farther northwest version of it very recently.  I just can't quite put my finger on it.  

Hopefully this one stays south ;)

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47 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Honestly for the sake of people to the north, this one needs to go south of the areas that have been getting crushed.

agreed. I'm getting concerned for them. 

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8 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Yep. Wash, rinse, repeat. How does anyone who likes winter endure the state of Ohio??

Ohio sucks for big synoptic storms. But we average 100-120”+ inches in the snow belt of northeast Ohio. Much snowier than the rest of the state on average. I always think the same thing about Southwest Michigan.... big lake that rarely freezes yet limited lake effect snow in the southwest corner.

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33 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Ohio sucks for big synoptic storms. But we average 100-120”+ inches in the snow belt of northeast Ohio. Much snowier than the rest of the state on average. I always think the same thing about Southwest Michigan.... big lake that rarely freezes yet limited lake effect snow in the southwest corner.

If only Lk. Michigan were another 80 miles wider, what a difference it would make for the LES. You're right about that!

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6 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

If only Lk. Michigan were another 80 miles wider, what a difference it would make for the LES. You're right about that!

 

Another 80 would help for sure. I would also extend it another 80 south as well. Still as is has helped us a bit especially in winters like this.

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2 hours ago, Harry said:

 

Another 80 would help for sure. I would also extend it another 80 south as well. Still as is has helped us a bit especially in winters like this.

 In 2016-17 there were quite a few white out bands from 94 that hit out this way. I remember Adam saying they skipped over Jackson but it literally brought me to basically average snowfall (i got 41.6") in a Winter were many areas to the north of Detroit had noticeably less.  In our dream scenarios a few tweaks to the Lake would certainly paid dividends for Southern lower Michigan, however as a whole the Lake still helps more than it hurts in any Winter, good or bad.

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22 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Setup on the GFS for next weekend looks strangely familiar.  I know I've seen a farther northwest version of it very recently.  I just can't quite put my finger on it.  

12Z GFS caving to weaker SE Euro version for March 2nd. Before that a couple waves deposit snow where it has repeatedly..north of the IL-WI line. 

Screenshot_20190225-102129_Samsung Internet.jpg

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Looking good for another shot of 3-6" for those of us in Wisconsin and Michigan Tuesday night into Wednesday. Due to model fatigue and lack of coverage in the sub-forum, probably not thread worthy.

 floop-gfs-2019022512.snku_024h.conus.gif.10d8261b15d13e0f4bbba77a1ddfbc75.gif

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11 hours ago, Harry said:

 

Another 80 would help for sure. I would also extend it another 80 south as well. Still as is has helped us a bit especially in winters like this.

I'd drown if it got extended 80 miles south.  :snorkle:

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22 hours ago, Baum said:

agreed. I'm getting concerned for them. 

I had to set alarms every 3-4 hours all night to wake up and make sure the furnace vent wasn't drifted over. It was every single time and so every single time I had to get dressed, crawl out the window with a head lamp and a snow shovel, dig them out and go back in.

It was insane.

Now I'm worried about my roof collapsing but I don't have time to clear it for a day or two because I have classes, hw and clinicals all week.

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8 hours ago, Toro99 said:

Looking good for another shot of 3-6" for those of us in Wisconsin and Michigan Tuesday night into Wednesday. Due to model fatigue and lack of coverage in the sub-forum, probably not thread worthy.

 floop-gfs-2019022512.snku_024h.conus.gif.10d8261b15d13e0f4bbba77a1ddfbc75.gif

Wondering if that's over-blown? That looks too robust for mby. I'm sure you'll do well tho. 

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4 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

I had to set alarms every 3-4 hours all night to wake up and make sure the furnace vent wasn't drifted over. It was every single time and so every single time I had to get dressed, crawl out the window with a head lamp and a snow shovel, dig them out and go back in.

It was insane.

Now I'm worried about my roof collapsing but I don't have time to clear it for a day or two because I have classes, hw and clinicals all week.

Umm. But you love it up there and wouldn't have it any other way. Right?

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