dryslot Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: This is a good test case for the new location in PWM. We have 0" for the Jetport, but have light accumulations at my house. We'll see what 100 ft can gain me. Kind of looks like for this one, That could make the difference, Its similar here as i'm at 217' but about a mile or so away, A buddy of mine sits at 850' and have seen it rain here and snow at his place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yes, Gene and Alex as well as the IZG-RUM corridor here, Elevations are going to get smoked, There is no doub't about that, Its how the lower elevations shake out with that SLP track along or off the coast. I think you'll do okay. You're far enough from the low up there for some more paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Rains to Maine’s on this next one but there’s hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Kind of looks like for this one, That could make the difference, Its similar here as i'm at 217' but about a mile or so away, A buddy of mine sits at 850' and have seen it rain here and snow at his place. I wonder how my 13' will treat me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rains to Maine’s on this next one but there’s hope Big Ben with the knee jerk. Every run changes, but the trend for more lower heights there is real. But, if we can maybe get more of a trough in the GOAK and not a black hole over AK extending to LAX...it would help with chances. I still think a relaxation is inevitable and it's started already. It does not mean no snow, but I don't see a prolonged winter pattern right now. But, there could be chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The 6z NAM and GFS do seem warmer. Not sure how 6z euro was. 06z Euro tracks the secondary over SFM then north into the mtns, I think i would sell on that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I wonder how my 13' will treat me. Probably poorly with a hugger track or low going to your west.............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 06z Euro tracks the secondary over SFM then north into the mtns, I think i would sell on that track. is that much different than the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I wonder how my 13' will treat me. Well the rain drops will take longer to fall to your location than everyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 32 minutes ago, dendrite said: This may be a good event for Gene being NW of me and having elevation. I expect mostly rain and catpaws here with a flip toward the end if the CCB gets some of the plow guys are calling me Some of the plow guys are calling me and asking me what do I think is going to happen tomorrow. Looking at the EURO vs GFS is like night and day at my location. No snow or a foot of snow? I guess just a watch and wait game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: is that much different than the gfs? Its east of the GFS, GFS takes an inland track, Tracks the low thru SWNH into the Mtns of ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, wxeyeNH said: Some of the plow guys are calling me and asking me what do I think is going to happen tomorrow. Looking at the EURO vs GFS is like night and day at my location. No snow or a foot of snow? I guess just a watch and wait game. That's why i went 1-12" but i know where i would want it to be............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yes, Gene and Alex as well as the IZG-RUM corridor here, Elevations are going to get smoked, There is no doub't about that, Its how the lower elevations shake out with that SLP track along or off the coast. I'm feeling pretty decent for the elevations around here... and even at home I think I should at least end with a net gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 BTV discounted the Euro last night as an outlier by the WPC plumes: Given these trends i've also downplayed the more aggressive European model (ecmwf) snowfall guidance as wpc plume guidance shows it being a clear heavy outlier and influencing the overall mean. For now i'll show minimal accumulations in the deeper valleys with the greatest accumulations occurring above 1000 feet in the dacks/greens and across north central/northeastern Vermont where dynamical cooling processes and slightly cooler temperatures should have more influence in closer proximity to the secondary low. In these areas several inches if not more will be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Well the rain drops will take longer to fall to your location than everyone else? LOL. My question was in jest in case anyone was wondering. 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its east of the GFS, GFS takes an inland track, Tracks the low thru SWNH into the Mtns of ME Gotcha--I thought that was a similar endpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I'm feeling pretty decent for the elevations around here... and even at home I think I should at least end with a net gain. I mean forecast soundings support basically an all snow scenario above 1500 feet around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I'm feeling pretty decent for the elevations around here... and even at home I think I should at least end with a net gain. Just like all of november over there, Why would it change? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 When euro on it’s own, it caves. All the pit locations won’t make a difference. Watch the next farting shortwave though, that has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: BTV discounted the Euro last night as an outlier by the WPC plumes: Given these trends i've also downplayed the more aggressive European model (ecmwf) snowfall guidance as wpc plume guidance shows it being a clear heavy outlier and influencing the overall mean. For now i'll show minimal accumulations in the deeper valleys with the greatest accumulations occurring above 1000 feet in the dacks/greens and across north central/northeastern Vermont where dynamical cooling processes and slightly cooler temperatures should have more influence in closer proximity to the secondary low. In these areas several inches if not more will be possible. So what models are they using? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: When euro on it’s own, it caves. All the pit locations won’t make a difference. Watch the next farting shortwave though, that has a chance. Thanks Debbie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: So what models are they using? Didn't they say the last winter in an event and then ate it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: So what models are they using? American guidance or a blend of all but Euro, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Didn't they say the last winter in an event and then ate it? Yeah, Your right, They ate some crow on an event, PF would know which one it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: American guidance or a blend of all but Euro, lol. Talking about playing with fire, Could get burned again............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Didn't they say the last winter in an event and then ate it? Yeah...there was one they threw out the Euro when it was on its own and we got smoked in the end but who hasn't thrown out an outlier before lol. All I know is I want what the 6z Euro is throwing down. It goes nuts with the cyclonic upslope on Wednesday behind the system. Like 9-12 hours of moist NW flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah...there was one they threw out the Euro when it was on its own and we got smoked in the end but who hasn't thrown out an outlier before lol. All I know is I want what the 6z Euro is throwing down. It goes nuts with the cyclonic upslope on Wednesday behind the system. Like 9-12 hours of moist NW flow. You area is going to do well no matter the low track outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 9 hours ago, mreaves said: Apparently you haven’t worked with a club and landowners before. Also, there are still a tone of open water bars and wetlands. I'm just saying conditions were better than they typically are in late spring that's all. But the end of hunting season makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: American guidance or a blend of all but Euro, lol. I mean I can see the WPC super-ensemble too and it doesn't look like the Euro is that far of an outlier. The random EPS members they are using are definitely snowier than the GFS, but not wildly so. The snowiest models are actually a couple hi-res runs and an NMB SREF member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 You guys may want to start a thread so you’re not bothered with sne doom and gloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You guys may want to start a thread so you’re not bothered with sne doom and gloom. Sounds like you're becoming comfortable numb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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