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Steve

Let's Talk Winter!!

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2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

According to the euro:

on day 10 Columbus has 27" of snow on the ground and minus teen air temps

The severe arctic out break for this time period has been teased by some models for over a week now. This run of the Euro would rival the great arctic outbreaks of all time for much of the nation......dare I even say....February 1899? Just incredible.....

ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

 

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In terms of this upcoming storm for OH, can't really imagine better trends across the board today.  Slightly lower height in front of the storm due to a little bit more cold seeping in from the north, but also a slower, sharper southern shortwave on every model except for the NAM.  The NAM is still a bit of red flag, but the trend in general supports the snow/mix line setting up a little farther south and also more QPF. 

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

It looked good.  I think the problem was it was flying along, looked like it was about to go neg tilt just as it hit WV but didn't quite get there.   That would have the boom we wanted.

I don't want to sound like Angry and be negative, because storms heading up from the south moving east of Ohio can make for some excellent storms.  I am more just commenting on that track.  Apps runners are the unicorns of the Ohio storm compendium.  When you see one, make a wish, because it's unlikely you see one again. ^_^

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Why wouldn't NWS at least issue an advisory for SW ohio Cincinnati area? They recently updated and still have it listed as a possible hazardous condition? 

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1 hour ago, Indystorm said:

I can't believe FV3 is giving me over a foot of snow here just ne of Indpls when the local NWS is only predicting a few inches with mix.  And this close to the event!

It's a bit of an outlier with those totals but I've got to give it a tip of the hat because of it's performance last week.  Heck the 18Z HRRR is dropping a foot on Bloomington lol.

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Started looking at the HRRR since we're getting into its range now.  The 18Z run is a thing of beauty.  We ride the line for a bit there, but really solution.

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21 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

ILN has 6-10" for Columbus.  Curiously, they also have 8-12" for Madison County.  Not sure how that works. 

They going to up totals on WSW then?

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Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Where are you getting the 6-10" ? I typed in Columbus and under the Winter Storm Warning headline it says 5-8.

It's in the zones. 

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Just now, jbcmh81 said:

You're all screwed, that's the superior model.  :lmao:

LOL...I know it's terrible...I just want complete and total model agreement.  Is that asking too much???  :arrowhead:

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2 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

LOL...I know it's terrible...I just want complete and total model agreement.  Is that asking too much???  :arrowhead:

Careful what you wish for, LOL.  That's when you really get screwed.  

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17 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

I think a lot of the public watched the local news say 3" and that's all they're expecting. 

Well at least my trip to the grocery store tonight will be pleasant.

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22 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

Go big or go home Bam lol.

image.jpeg

Wow - has me in the 12"+ zone and Columbus in the 8-12" zone.  Local met on the radio is much lower on the totals for the area.  

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Iluvsnow and I are buddies, and neighbors (along with HightechEE).  Bellbrook!

Full disclosure:  Despite my solid-citizen-weenie status, I work at WHIO-TV.  I'm in ad sales, but I do have the luxury of spending time in the weather office.  The Mets know I'm a snow weenie, and they enjoy showing me their perspective.

Of course,

I learn so much more coming here.  It's a blast!  Keep up the great posts and commentary.

Looking at the graphics and maps above, my house is right there - where the 8-12" line touches the 6-8" line :-)

 

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