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2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread


Tyler Penland
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Just now, Tyler Penland said:

Shows some decent ice accumulation before the changeover though. Still nice to have it washed away.

 


Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

 

Yea especially along the 81 corridor up in VA. 3k nam clown map is just stupid lol trying to signify its intent on laying down some significant ice accretion. 

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Yea especially along the 81 corridor up in VA. 3k nam clown map is just stupid lol trying to signify its intent on laying down some significant ice accretion. 
Keep in mind it has a tendency to overdo precip by quite a bit, especially in CAD events right along the escarpment.

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1 minute ago, Disc said:

The Blue Ridge south of Roanoke into NW NC are gonna be the "winners" here. Floyd County, VA does ice really well.

What’s your call based off what you’ve seen here ice accretion wise and do you think the CAD is still underplayed? Also does Blacksburg go ahead and issue winter storm watches due to the time of the year with the afternoon package? 

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1 minute ago, Tyler Penland said:

Keep in mind it has a tendency to overdo precip by quite a bit, especially in CAD events right along the escarpment.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

Oh absolutely. I’ve watched these things unfold time in and time out with the nam but even half of that with the temps where they are progged to be has a recipe for a surprise in some areas.

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6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

What’s your call based off what you’ve seen here ice accretion wise and do you think the CAD is still underplayed? Also does Blacksburg go ahead and issue winter storm watches due to the time of the year with the afternoon package? 

I think we can cut what the models are spitting out by as much as 60 to 70 percent. Even doing that, that's still a significant amount of ice. Rates are heavy and accretion is not efficient with temps 30-32. Start getting temps into the 20s, then that's a different story.  This is a very anomalous storm and there's really not much in the analogs to compare it to.  

 As for headlines, they can be issued, but I can't disclose if they will/will not be issued. 

 

Current forecast as of 5am:

 

StormTotalIceFcst.png

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42 minutes ago, Disc said:

I think we can cut what the models are spitting out by as much as 60 to 70 percent. Even doing that, that's still a significant amount of ice. Rates are heavy and accretion is not efficient with temps 30-32. Start getting temps into the 20s, then that's a different story.  This is a very anomalous storm and there's really not much in the analogs to compare it to.  

 As for headlines, they can be issued, but I can't disclose if they will/will not be issued. 

 

Current forecast as of 5am:

 

StormTotalIceFcst.png

12z RGEM has most areas in the upper 20s at hour 48. Seeing some 26-27 readings. That would be a disaster.

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Just now, Met1985 said:

I have been better really and I do miss the mountains.  I have a lot of family stuff going on so I'll be back the second week in December for as long as I can see. It will be good to be back.

I hate to hear that ill be praying for ya I know I speak for all of us ur missed greatly it ain't the mtn crew without ya and theres light at the end of that tunnel I promise ya that brother.

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1 hour ago, Tyler Penland said:

What's interesting is that the RGEM actually has 850's sub freezing for most of the mountains during the heart of the event which would probably keep it as sleet rather than freezing rain. Wish there were soundings available somewhere.

I am down here in the foothills. Hopefully, I will escape most of the onslaught this storm will bring. Good luck to you guys higher up.... hope you get a sleet-fest instead of all that freezing rain that is currently modeled.

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8 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Gonna be rough tomorrow night regardless, gonna stock up on the essentials; Coronas. Anyways, the FV3 or whatever it's called has some interesting gulf lows at the end of the month, this is shaping up to possibly be a big start to winter, maybe not just this week.

I agree I haven't been this excited. Since 09/10

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Is it me or did the 0z NAM nest (3k, 12k, 32k) look a little less significant for the NC mountains? Seems to have shifted a little bit more north and doesn’t have that extended icing. 0z RGEM is a whole other beast and is almost a carbon copy of its 18z predecessor. I really believe the RGEM always tends to overdo the CAD setups but not to say it’s never been spot on either. Some form of a blend naturally seems in order. I just never trust the GFS in these setups because it doesn’t have the low level superiority the NAM does to sniff these things out a little better.

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Warnings are up!

 

...Heavy mixed precipitation expected above 2500 feet. Mixed
  precipitation expected below 2500 feet. Above 2500 feet, total
  sleet accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of
  around two tenths of an inch expected. Below 2500 feet, total
  sleet accumulations of up to one quarter inch and ice
  accumulations of around two tenths of an inch expected.
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9 hours ago, AirNelson39 said:

Had a neighbor tell me today that she remembers a pretty bad ice storm around Thanksgiving in the early 80’s around Boone. She was thinking 82 or 83. Anyone remember that one?

Nothing in the NCSU winter storm database, but I'm sure there have been storms that have been overlooked up in the mountains. 

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/database

 

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1 hour ago, BretWheatley said:

Warnings are up!

 


...Heavy mixed precipitation expected above 2500 feet. Mixed
  precipitation expected below 2500 feet. Above 2500 feet, total
  sleet accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of
  around two tenths of an inch expected. Below 2500 feet, total
  sleet accumulations of up to one quarter inch and ice
  accumulations of around two tenths of an inch expected.

At this point the mountains are in the crosshairs; particularly the higher valleys. **which may be worse than the higher peaks

My son is at App State and my wife's family live in Boone. I told them to get ready for lots of ice.   

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