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Tyler Penland

2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

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1 hour ago, Buckethead said:

It is really quiet in here considering we may have our first measurable snow in less than a week.  Where is everyone?

I'm biding my time, definitely not getting sucked in too early yet.

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Yeah looks like a NWF only event to me. Encouraging seeing these gulf systems so early on though.

12z icon with what I believe is a more realistic picture with maybe some passing snow showers on the 14th. Fun to track, but I'm not expecting much.
icon_asnow_seus_49.png&key=d53d07c68d608aee42ec5c873a74305b846bfe275b9889e750460fa8024ead7e


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This setup is not a typical NW flow setup.  It is primarily a system with cold air crashing in behind it. The flow behind the main batch of moisture is kind of a westerly flow. These setups are very hard to predict for the mountains because if you get a delay in the cold air it is a cold chasing moisture type setup. 

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Looks like a two wave ordeal per the Euro. First wave sets the stage with a 50/50 low and then the second wave moves in Thursday am from the Gulf. The two wave setup is the way Asheville will get anything more than a dusting from the pattern.

 

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54 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Looks like a two wave ordeal per the Euro. First wave sets the stage with a 50/50 low and then the second wave moves in Thursday am from the Gulf. The two wave setup is the way Asheville will get anything more than a dusting from the pattern.

 

Thats a nice size ice storm all of NW NC down the foothills 77 coridor in NC

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

Glad I didn;t get too caught up with next weeks system, looks like trends have gone away from what we want. However, the oz GFS spit out this solution for the 15th, and the FV3 had a bit of a wintry solution, though not as pronounced as this.  Short lived, but still have some hope for some wintry weather. Also...decent lake effect next weekend possibly showing up???

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4 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

Glad I didn;t get too caught up with next weeks system, looks like trends have gone away from what we want. However, the oz GFS spit out this solution for the 15th, and the FV3 had a bit of a wintry solution, though not as pronounced as this.  Short lived, but still have some hope for some wintry weather. Also...decent lake effect next weekend possibly showing up???

Get use to seeing that this winter. Plenty of moisture and a 1035 H in NY. You get that look in Jan and it’s lights out east of the blue ridge with the CAD. 

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Euro still advertising a wintery start with the second wave around some parts of WNC. Surface temps are below freezing as the precip begins. 850mb temps are warm but surface temps could support sleet for a couple of hours Thursday.

 

 

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7 hours ago, Hvward said:

Euro still advertising a wintery start with the second wave around some parts of WNC. Surface temps are below freezing as the precip begins. 850mb temps are warm but surface temps could support sleet for a couple of hours Thursday.

 

 

.

 

Yeah the 12z shows around 0.5-0.6"QPF falling with surface temps below freezing. Should be interesting through mid-morning. Temps start off in the low/mid-20's and never get above 36 in Boone during the event. Cold, cold rain.

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12km NAM looking like a zr/ip event end to end.

Also the 6z fv3 says hold on tight with several chances.

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Yeah NAM has been very interesting, especially considering it gets the job done with a 1034mb hp and the Euro shows a 1037mb hp in position as precip begins. Will be interesting to see if the high strengthens on the NAM on future runs. These are decent high pressures and could push enough cold air into WNC to keep things wintry for a while Thursday morning.

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