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Tyler Penland

2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

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Just now, Rainforrest said:

Did y’all see Andy woods storm prediction totals for the storm in the main thread? 

I saw them on Facebook 

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6 minutes ago, Rainforrest said:

Did y’all see Andy woods storm prediction totals for the storm in the main thread? 

Saw his Blizzard warning prediction. Also benchmark in Boone per rays is 30 (1993). I was in the "whee" for that one and NWs had officially a Blizzard warning out. Something that saturday afternoon seeing 40mph+ wind while heavy snow falling.  

 

Also think ray said snowiest December on record for Boone was like 27 inches (2010). So if Boone had what 3 earlier this week and nets about 16-20 this weekend. Look out another record is in reach.

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20 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Did he pop in? He posted some on FB about the storm.

I haven't seen him on the board, just chatted with him on Facebook. 

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Just now, AsheCounty48 said:

Euro pushing those 20+ amounts a bit closer to Boone. I'll take it 

You are in a great spot, enjoy!

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BTW you all need to keep a close eye on late next week. Strong cut off low in the TN valley with long periods of upslope snow possible. In fact some places could get 6-12 easy in favored spots 

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24 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

BTW you all need to keep a close eye on late next week. Strong cut off low in the TN valley with long periods of upslope snow possible. In fact some places could get 6-12 easy in favored spots 

I havent paid all that much attention to it yet, but the signal is strong for a really well set up upslope event. But not gonna worry about it til Tuesday lol

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Everything still on track, if it plays out like fv3 euro and ukmet outputs it will be one of the greats we all talk about years from now


.

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Just now, HKY1894 said:

Everything still on track, if it plays out like fv3 euro and ukmet outputs it will be one of the greats we all talk about years from now


.

Seeing the Euro put out what it did less than 24 hours away really made me buy in. 

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The one nagging doubt I have is the gulf hasn't had much time for a winter cool down; I just can't help but think there is a warm nose sneaking up behind me despite the CAD in front of me.

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1 minute ago, Moonhowl said:

The one nagging doubt I have is the gulf hasn't had much time for a winter cool down; I just can't help but think there is a warm nose sneaking up behind me despite the CAD in front of me.

I'm starting to wonder if convective activity on the gulf coast will affect the moisture transport.  

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5 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

I'm hunting big game...lol

snowProbGE18.png

Where do you find maps like that on a NWS site? I’ve seen ones similar to this posted on the forums but can’t seem to find them. Apologies if I’m asking an obvious question.

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8 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

I'm starting to wonder if convective activity on the gulf coast will affect the moisture transport.  

We do need to watch this.  But seems that given the moisture transport mechanism off of the Gulf and Atlantic, perhaps this won't be too big an issue.

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5 minutes ago, Boonelight said:

Where do you find maps like that on a NWS site? I’ve seen ones similar to this posted on the forums but can’t seem to find them. Apologies if I’m asking an obvious question.

On the NWS forecast page, look near the top and click on the headline major winter storm expected.  Then on that next page click the top left blue tab next to the red hazard tab.  It's near the middle of the next page under the paragraph in bold.

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11 minutes ago, Moonhowl said:

The one nagging doubt I have is the gulf hasn't had much time for a winter cool down; I just can't help but think there is a warm nose sneaking up behind me despite the CAD in front of me.

Gulf temperatures have zero impact on our storm.  If anything, warmer temperatures support more evaporation and thus more added water vapor / moisture availability.

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5 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

On the NWS forecast page, look near the top and click on the headline major winter storm expected.  Then on that next page click the top left blue tab next to the red hazard tab.  It's near the bottom of the next page. 

Found it, thanks! Good luck in your “hunt”!

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Still undecided on where to go. I think Fletcher/Hendersonville is a safe bet for at least 10" but GSP's probability maps favor places like Brevard or Morganton. My gut tells me Brevard could end up too far west and lose CAD. Thoughts?

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Just now, chapelhillwx said:

Still undecided on where to go. I think Fletcher/Hendersonville is a safe bet for at least 10" but GSP's probability maps favor places like Brevard or Morganton. My gut tells me Brevard could end up too far west and lose CAD. Thoughts?

I can assure you that Brevard and Hendersonville rarely end up far off from one another with these setups. Orographic Lifting will do work on both.

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1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

I can assure you that Brevard and Hendersonville rarely end up far off from one another with these setups. Orographic Lifting will do work on both.

Hendersonville it is then. Not a bad drive at all from me and if push comes to shove gf's parents own a business there and I can sleep on the floor lol.

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