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pasnownut

Central PA Fall 2018

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6 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Had to be from thunderstorm events with training I'd say.  Hard to imagine just one county away and that huge of a difference.  Didn't Voyager say he had something like 70 or 75" up his way too?  Those differences had to appear during the summer months with all the TSRW events we had.

How much did you have in July and September?  I had 9.5" in July and 10" in September.

Yup. I'm at 73.38" right now after getting 1.82" so far today. 

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What a weird day....66 for the high. Tomorrow high of 37.

One minute it's sunny and 5 minutes later it's a downpour, There was a good bite of rain overnight.

And around supper time a thunder storm.

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this sh!ts just crazy.  Half way home from work in Manheim at 530...i couldnt see it was raining so hard.  by the time i got to Ephrata, the moon was out and clouds and big open areas of clear.  Clouds were MOVIN though as wind was due S.  Not a drop at my house till about 45 min ago then boy oh boy did it cut loose.  I wont miss this....if the monsoon season ever leaves us.

 

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Transition to snow is beginning in the Laurel's with snow evident on some 511 cams. Temps down to the upper 30s but no mixing here yet. Radar starting to show the transition zone pretty well with a distinct rain to snow boundary running the Allegheny front (solid line) and the mixing zone down to around 2k feet beam height (dashed line).

388738700_ScreenShot2018-12-21at9_09_35PM.thumb.png.acac5bad41592cfd4ee98a91f0f553ee.png

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16 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Transition to snow is beginning in the Laurel's with snow evident on some 511 cams. Temps down to the upper 30s but no mixing here yet. Radar starting to show the transition zone pretty well with a distinct rain to snow boundary running the Allegheny front (solid line) and the mixing zone down to around 2k feet beam height (dashed line).

388738700_ScreenShot2018-12-21at9_09_35PM.thumb.png.acac5bad41592cfd4ee98a91f0f553ee.png

Pretty crazy stuff right there MAG...it still has the feel of a spring evening down this way. 

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

this sh!ts just crazy.  Half way home from work in Manheim at 530...i couldnt see it was raining so hard.  by the time i got to Ephrata, the moon was out and clouds and big open areas of clear.  Clouds were MOVIN though as wind was due S.  Not a drop at my house till about 45 min ago then boy oh boy did it cut loose.  I wont miss this....if the monsoon season ever leaves us.

 

It never rained in Harrisburg since say 7 a.m. Crazy stuff.

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

There were 3 distinct bands that rolled through here between 5 and 7 this evening...you missed all 3 of them? Wow.

And with those 3 bands also came the arrival of the winter solstice at 5:37pm!  :)

Only thing I don't like about today is that the days start getting longer.  I say that just wishing that the really short days lasted deep into the real heart of winter, not because I dislike more daylight.

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Pretty crazy stuff right there MAG...it still has the feel of a spring evening down this way. 

Update: changeover here now, a merciful end to another miserable rainstorm in a year that's had enough of them. The warmth for the day was kind of nice actually, it really hasn't been all that warm at all this month for the most part. 

The very warm day will be brief and modeling is starting to pick up more on this potential Christmas Eve mischief (looking more towards Christmas Eve..Eve). Now showing more on the GFS and the NAM at range is seeing it. New 0z NAM run had a 1-3" type event in central and eastern (Harrisburg and above generally in the LSV). Probably going to be a weak event but it represents a shot a perhaps a white Christmas over at least a portion of the subforum. This is of the variety that would favor the western mountains and some central areas but a slightly more robust system could run a swath across all of PA. 

Beyond that, it appears we're set to endure another cutting storm in the between Xmas and New Years window after having seasonal cold. It hasn't been an issue of temps so much as unfavorable storm tracks this month. We unfortunately missed the one to the south mid-month that would have made for the rout being on in terms of tracking towards an above average snowy winter. Been looking at teleconnections and NAO/PNA/EPO don't really show anything to me extremely clear cut. the -NAO is somewhat negative (okay), PNA going negative (indicating western troughing) and EPO somewhat positive (meh). The one thing I see in the teleconnection realm is we are pretty solidly into phase 5 in the MJO... which in NDJ,DJF, and JFM indicates one of the strongest correlated signals to eastern warmth and SE ridging. I actually think it fits fairly well right now if you look at the maps pertaining to this phase (Temp and Precip). It obviously hasn't been particularly warm, but the last couple events have featured unfavorable tracks and rain for the region. I think once we cycle towards more favorable phases we could see a better alignment for potential snow events. I remain fairly optimistic of things once get into the thick of winter (Jan/Feb) if we continue to have an active pattern (esp southern stream). I definitely foresee opportunities.

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5 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Update: changeover here now, a merciful end to another miserable rainstorm in a year that's had enough of them. The warmth for the day was kind of nice actually, it really hasn't been all that warm at all this month for the most part. 

The very warm day will be brief and modeling is starting to pick up more on this potential Christmas Eve mischief (looking more towards Christmas Eve..Eve). Now showing more on the GFS and the NAM at range is seeing it. New 0z NAM run had a 1-3" type event in central and eastern (Harrisburg and above generally in the LSV). Probably going to be a weak event but it represents a shot a perhaps a white Christmas over at least a portion of the subforum. This is of the variety that would favor the western mountains and some central areas but a slightly more robust system could run a swath across all of PA. 

Beyond that, it appears we're set to endure another cutting storm in the between Xmas and New Years window after having seasonal cold. It hasn't been an issue of temps so much as unfavorable storm tracks this month. We unfortunately missed the one to the south mid-month that would have made for the rout being on in terms of tracking towards an above average snowy winter. Been looking at teleconnections and NAO/PNA/EPO don't really show anything to me extremely clear cut. the -NAO is somewhat negative (okay), PNA going negative (indicating western troughing) and EPO somewhat positive (meh). The one thing I see in the teleconnection realm is we are pretty solidly into phase 5 in the MJO... which in NDJ,DJF, and JFM indicates one of the strongest correlated signals to eastern warmth and SE ridging. I actually think it fits fairly well right now if you look at the maps pertaining to this phase (Temp and Precip). It obviously hasn't been particularly warm, but the last couple events have featured unfavorable tracks and rain for the region. I think once we cycle towards more favorable phases we could see a better alignment for potential snow events. I remain fairly optimistic of things once get into the thick of winter (Jan/Feb) if we continue to have an active pattern (esp southern stream). I definitely foresee opportunities.

The 0z NAM does like the idea of a little early Christmas Eve snow !

 

8929A456-2D16-41EB-9455-1A47DBB90FDE.png

4AA22BA2-288A-4852-B69D-82F6BD8BE648.png

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The period from New Year’s weekend to the first week of January look to be very active with a few winter storm chances. The general theme looks to be cold air pushing the boundary south of PA, with Lows then riding up the coast that deliver the snow to CTP.

The Euro & GFS Ops & the ensembles are saying that we will be very busy here next week!

All that I want for Christmas is for this Euro Control run to verily!

DF7368D4-79A0-4505-9AB9-06607F1559B9.png

15A2494F-B1DC-4519-BA5D-34C164459B00.png

9BF4F280-B278-4C9D-BBA3-CA86B832A377.png

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

its just been one of those years.

We need to change the momentum in here.

The thread title still says “ Fall “ , but we are now in winter !

Maybe that will get things going in here & get @pasnownut to start getting more excited when I post snow maps overnight ?

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22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

We need to change the momentum in here.

The thread title still says “ Fall “ , but we are now in winter !

Maybe that will get things going in here & get @pasnownut to start getting more excited when I post snow maps overnight ?

And I thought us more educated types followed the meteorological winter timing meaning we are a week from being 1/3 into winter.  That fall thread title needs to come down.  LOL.

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4 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

We need to change the momentum in here.

The thread title still says “ Fall “ , but we are now in winter !

Maybe that will get things going in here & get @pasnownut to start getting more excited when I post snow maps overnight ?

You ask...I deliver....

 

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000
SXUS71 KCTP 220633
RERIPT

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
130 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2018

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT WILLIAMSPORT PA...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 64 DEGREES WAS SET AT WILLIAMSPORT PA 
YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 60 DEGREES SET IN 1895.

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.97 INCHES WAS SET AT WILLIAMSPORT PA 
YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 1.32 SET IN 1905.

$$

MARTIN

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