Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,540
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    clydes6
    Newest Member
    clydes6
    Joined

Winter 2018 Discussion


HillsdaleMIWeather
 Share

Recommended Posts

I'd be surprised at a strong Nino on the trimonthlies even if modeling is suggesting it.  Most of the time the warm episode is more developed by now in the strong years.  

I'd probably actually roll the dice with that though, because a stronger Nino would lead to a greater chance of above average precip.  It's early, but my concern is that much of the region may be predisposed to be drier than average. Those types of winters can still be solid if the cold is fairly persistent, but have less shots at more significant storms.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A weak Central/Modoki Nino seems to be the safe bet right now.

 

Kirk Mellish has a good analysis on the current state of the Pacific and brings the solar minimum into it as well. A good read.

 

https://www.wsbradio.com/weather/winter-outlook-ingredients/VEEbp2GMylFzqdwql1ltRO/

 

Some excerpts:

 

* source region may be Canada vs Siberia which would favor less brutal cold, even with a Modoki influenced eastern trough.

 

* favors an active STJ

 

* record few sunspots can favor high latitude blocking, snowier in the east, or have no impact at all

 

* other potentially important factors like the goa blob, autumn Eurasian snow cover, etc are just not in range yet, and so things could really go any way, not yet a long range crystal ball.

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree it's too early. It's all speculation at this point. Naturally the mainstream public will hear thepathetically watered and dumbed down story that an el nino is likely so that means warmer and drier than normal Winter. But obviously tons of factors come into play. Snowfall has been on the uptick here so there's no reason to believe it won't be at least an OK Winter unless very strong signs start to point otherwise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

east/central based Modoki's with a collapsing -QBO can be pretty warm early on(with periods of cold shots of course) in the cold season and move cold/arctic as you near February. If a Modoki does not form and it ends up neutral.........that could be a problem as it undercuts STJ strength, especially after a La Nina period. We saw that go down in 2001-02 for not so pleasant results for some of us(though, I will readily admit the late January 2002 storm was fascinating, even in the warm sector in Columbus........).

I wish the ENSO would make up its mind. We are in late August and things are still ironing themselves out. If we could get a good read there, that would narrow down some variables.

Don't recall late Jan 2002 storm.   I'm usually pretty good with remembering the good ones, although my aging mind tends to blur specifics.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I agree it's too early. It's all speculation at this point. Naturally the mainstream public will hear thepathetically watered and dumbed down story that an el nino is likely so that means warmer and drier than normal Winter. But obviously tons of factors come into play. Snowfall has been on the uptick here so there's no reason to believe it won't be at least an OK Winter unless very strong signs start to point otherwise.

I'm with you.  I'm also not sold on the weight often given to enso state alone, (not to mention the difficulty of being able to predict the correct enso state for the upcoming winter months in advance).

Safe call here in Central Ohio is a nickle and diming, (with a 50 cent piece maybe thrown in), to end up with an average snowfall winter.   Another yawner but not necessarily a ratter.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

After all of the rah-rah hype preceding last winter, Nina blah blah... Pac Jet ...SOI....PDO blah blah blah and comparing it to my outcome, I'll just wait until Thanksgiving, thank you. Que sera, sera.

When I was younger I would get soooo excited for this time of year because it meant winter forecast speculation season! The older I get, however, the more I just tend to look at trends with some amusement and then sit back and watch whatever happens. Amazing how the stress levels go down. Nothing I can do to change the outcome anyway :)

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, WxMatt21 said:

When I was younger I would get soooo excited for this time of year because it meant winter forecast speculation season! The older I get, however, the more I just tend to look at trends with some amusement and then sit back and watch whatever happens. Amazing how the stress levels go down. Nothing I can do to change the outcome anyway :)

I feel the same way. However, how do you answer the public who wants winter season predictions? I know that you get that question because even in my position I get that a lot. I just answer what indices point to with a disclaimer that it is not my forecast. If you've seen my snowfall contest predictions for the past few years, you know that I don't have a clue. lol

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

So obviously this is a pretty basic way of looking at things, but here are the temperature/precipitation composites for weak, moderate, and strong Nino using the ONI value in DJF.  I decided to leave out 1987-88 since that one was an oddball that peaked unusually early (strong, during summer) and was down to weak for winter.

cd2607-fb90-a093-b191-0-11-b1d3-f801_234_13_40_29_prcp.png.5c594ac530599f4b1487f1b92f69f672.png

cd2607-fb90-a093-b191-0-11-b1d3-f801_234_13_41_47_prcp.png.8b5ac10aab0beea0dee891d23b058f11.png

 

 

cd2607-fb90-a093-b191-0-11-b1d3-f801_234_13_47.4_prcp.png.d79bfe5665f117c54a2daaeae430f802.png

cd2607-fb90-a093-b191-0-11-b1d3-f801_234_13_47_37_prcp.png.aa5475fca943ebcefe7db470cd286701.png

 

 

cd2607-fb90-a093-b191-0-11-b1d3-f801_234_13_49_25_prcp.png.dab6b579958bf852b6be7cda2516a94e.png

cd2607-fb90-a093-b191-0-11-b1d3-f801_234_13_50_50_prcp.png.a7e6d9e262b9724ed9014c917994e70e.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/23/2018 at 12:08 PM, IWXwx said:

I feel the same way. However, how do you answer the public who wants winter season predictions? I know that you get that question because even in my position I get that a lot. I just answer what indices point to with a disclaimer that it is not my forecast. If you've seen my snowfall contest predictions for the past few years, you know that I don't have a clue. lol

Well, I do discuss teleconnections and give them my best educated guess, and management likes us to put together a forecast, but I'm also very transparent about taking long range forecasts with a grain of salt. Trends are easier to nail than specifics, and that's what we try to do. Then you have those viewers who cling to their farmer's almanacs and will let us know if we say anything contrary to that haha!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, WxMatt21 said:

Well, I do discuss teleconnections and give them my best educated guess, and management likes us to put together a forecast, but I'm also very transparent about taking long range forecasts with a grain of salt. Trends are easier to nail than specifics, and that's what we try to do. Then you have those viewers who cling to their farmer's almanacs and will let us know if we say anything contrary to that haha!

Hi there! I'm from another forum, but I'm checking winter discussions across the boards: So, when ya said almanac, that got my attention because it always baffles me the times during the year when they DO get something right...How in the world do you think are they doing that? (Again, of course it ain't right all the time, but when it does hit it's kinda scary, lol)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, CoachLB said:

Battle of the almanacs.lol

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

 I have not seen the Orange one yet, but I saw the yellow one in the store the other day as I was in the check out line so I flipped through. For our region it does show warm and wet with temperatures above normal for each Winter month but it also notes that snowfall will be near normal with several snowy periods. When I used to be more into the almanacs than I am now, I found that the Orange one was better. And no I'm not saying that because it shows a cold snowy Winter lol. When I say better I'm talking about their overall synopsis and summary, obviously the individual days are a guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I have not seen the Orange one yet, but I saw the yellow one in the store the other day as I was in the check out line so I flipped through. For our region it does show warm and wet with temperatures above normal for each Winter month but it also notes that snowfall will be near normal with several snowy periods. When I used to be more into the almanacs than I am now, I found that the Orange one was better. And no I'm not saying that because it shows a cold snowy Winter lol. When I say better I'm talking about their overall synopsis and summary, obviously the individual days are a guess.

gosh, I'd hate to be the almanac forecaster in Chicago.... they are riding the border between "biting cold" and "teeth chattering cold".    The repercussions between one or the other verifying could wreak havoc on the preparedness of such a large population center.    I'm not even going to speculate on the consequences of 'plentiful snow' vs. 'snowy', :yikes:

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...
3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Here's the September JAMSTEC.  I noticed it has the Nino getting into moderate territory.  It would be more difficult to get this temp/precip look with a weaker Nino...

temp2_glob.DJF2019.1sep2018.gif.7b489c2342d920ece1645b7230b9770a.gif

tprep_glob.DJF2019.1sep2018.gif.d7d87a79b90b6be53bb0119a6490cc8b.gif

That's not a bad look for this way at all, but all the models are so different and they change so constantly come up the fun is really been sucked out of seasonal forecasting lol

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
28 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

I know we have all been waiting for it with fervor and anticipation....the always detailed....always in depth....always provocative......Accuweather winter forecast. Again....chock full of metrics enabling precise verification.....

Dold1gXWwAAarVH.jpg

"Cold shots"

"Cold & Mild Periods"

I actually let out an audible chuckle!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...