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NYC/PHL December 24-27 Potential Part 3

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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KEITH L.I

KEITH L.I

Posted
Posted

We wish we could get this kind of snow-- parts of Cali are buried under 17 FEET OF SNOW!

http://www.bloomberg...from-storm.html

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a state of emergency in six counties in the face of flooding rains and mounting snow from a storm that may be beneficial as well as destructive.

“The circumstances of these storms, by reason of their magnitude, are or are likely to be beyond the control of the services, personnel, equipment and facilities of any single county, or city,” Schwarzenegger said in his proclamation.

An estimated 17 feet (5.2 meters) of snow has fallen in less than a week at a monitor near the Kern River in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains, according to the U.S. Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Up to 17 feet of snow has fallen in the Sierra Nevada and locally over 26 inches of rain has soaked the mountains of Southern California. In addition, more than 15 inches of rain has fallen as far east as southern Utah.

....

Measuring Snow in Feet

In the Sierra Nevada mountains, snow totals are being measured in feet. The estimated 17 feet at the Pascoes near the Kern River is the highest. Other estimates are 16 feet at the West Woodchuck Meadow monitor near the Kings River and 15.9 feet at the Wet Meadow station on the Kern River, according to the hydrometeorological center in Camp Springs, Maryland.

Skiers are already benefiting. Eric Doyne, a spokesman for Ski Lake Tahoe, a marketing group for seven resorts, said this season’s opening was one of the strongest in at least a decade.

sounds like a strong el nino, instead of a strong nina..especially with the flooding in Southern CA..strange

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SP

SP

Posted
Posted

Good Morning......so did the late night runs puke out a solution which does not lead to the big fat pig allowing for a monster to ride the coast and take a dump on everyone? (that's where I left off last night during the radio show).......

I just took our the recycle to the curb and I have to say this is one bone chilling morning out there as the wind makes the most out of the 30F temperature. That journey alone has set me back about 45 minutes, which in the end is nothing compared to the numbness which lingers after a late night of playing elf (toy assembly) while enjoying the company of an 18yr old bottle of CAOL ILA and a hand rolled Cuban. (that was intended to make you squint a bit)

Ok, I just looked at one map....I bet Jerry (wxfella) has a smile on......the new england snow magnets are running full power while DC will be left high and dry, which suites them well considering all the stoned leftist and martini faced right wingers partying in the district this week.

Anyway, there is always the Euro....not that it is going to bail out DC or make the bell toll in Philly, but there is a football game Sunday night in the city of brotherly love and I for one, would enjoy the irony of watching the philly fans hurl snow balls upon the Vikings of Minnesota while NBC captions the video of the snow collapsing the dome. It would be fitting if Favre's last toss in the NFL is a slushy pile of goo striking some goon in the stands who has chin covered in cheese goop from the Geno's steak sandwich he keeps in his front pocket , both for sustenance and to impress the chicks who would otherwise be puzzled by the dude with the 1970's Italian Stallion shirt and smelly "lifting" gloves screaming " Fly Eagles Fly you _ucking cheese heads!"

Hmmm...it would be cool to see Brett depart after one last completion.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Looks like I-95 could be the dividing line between a few inches to the west, and plowable snows to the east. I'd be very excited if I was on Long Island or in New England at this time.

Agreed - The EURO of the last few days was also incorrect it appears - a SECS is the way to go for NYC right now 4 - 8" - BUT still leave the door open for higher or lesser amounts because this is such a dynamic storm/pattern and probably a pattern changer.............

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am19psu

am19psu

Posted
Posted

Looks like I-95 could be the dividing line between a few inches to the west, and plowable snows to the east. I'd be very excited if I was on Long Island or in New England at this time.

I'd probably put the dividing line east of I-95 around here, but yeah, E LI and SNE should be feeling really good. I'm probably going to end up taking a blend of the 6z GFS and the 0z Euro, with more weight on the 6z GFS

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

Posted
Posted

I'd probably put the dividing line east of I-95 around here, but yeah, E LI and SNE should be feeling really good. I'm probably going to end up taking a blend of the 6z GFS and the 0z Euro, with more weight on the 6z GFS

Sounds good-- GFS had about 0.5" qpf for NYC.... however, it looked like the ensembles were a notch west so there is some room for it to come into better alignment with the Euro (50 miles west wouldnt be unreasonable.)

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Parsley

Parsley

Posted
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Agreed - The EURO of the last few days was also incorrect it appears - a SECS is the way to go for NYC right now 4 - 8" - BUT still leave the door open for higher or lesser amounts because this is such a dynamic storm/pattern and probably a pattern changer.............

Agreed, (hypothetically) the map I have drawn (in my head) has less than 3 inches west of Philly, a 3-6 swath across New Jersey and the 6-12 inch line from NYC into western New England. That would put NYC in the 4- 8 range you speak of and give Long Island the best shot at seeing totals approaching a foot.

These aren't my "forecasts", just thoughts in my head I like to look back on when the storm hits (or misses).

My parents live in Islip Terrace in western Suffolk...I better give them a heads up today.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

Posted
Posted

Agreed, (hypothetically) the map I have drawn (in my head) has less than 3 inches west of Philly, a 3-6 swath across New Jersey and the 6-12 inch line from NYC into western New England. That would put NYC in the 4- 8 range you speak of and give Long Island the best shot at seeing totals approaching a foot.

These aren't my "forecasts", just thoughts in my head I like to look back on when the storm hits (or misses).

My parents live in Islip Terrace in western Suffolk...I better give them a heads up today.

Do you think there might be some mixing issues for the extreme east end of the island or cape cod, block island, marthas vineyard and nantucket?

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Parsley

Parsley

Posted
Posted

Do you think there might be some mixing issues for the extreme east end of the island or cape cod and nantucket?

Not really sure, I guess if the storm was to bomb out and track closer to the coastline like what the Euro showed yesterday at 12z I'd be concerned, but I don't really think so based on what the consensus is this morning after the 00z runs. Of course it all can change again at 12z.

As for throwing out snowfall totals, the storm is 4+ days away, but its always fun to throw out educated guesses I think. Since we are talking "potential" in this thread, its all hypothetical guessing at this point. All I say is I wish I was spending Christmas weekend back at my parents place on Long Island, not here in Pennsylvania.

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_AR_

_AR_

Posted
Posted

Hopefully last night may have been the result of only having 1/2 the shortwave on shore at 0000Z to sample. Along with northern stream sampling. Hopefully 12Z will be better. By 00Z tonight (friday 0Z), I think we should have a good idea of what will happen.

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Parsley

Parsley

Posted
Posted

HPC Update

http://www.hpc.ncep....epd/preepd.html

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

910 AM EST THU DEC 23 2010

VALID 12Z MON DEC 27 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 30 2010

ACROSS THE EAST...MODEL SPREAD HAS SLOWLY NARROWED CONCERNING THE

TRACK AND OTHER DETAILS CONCERNING A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM

AFFECTING THE EAST COAST DAYS 3-4. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FASTER

AND EASTWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUN-MON...WHILE THE GFS HAS

TRENDED FASTER AND WESTWARD...WITH THE 06Z GFS REPRESENTING A

CONSENSUS OF 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS AND NEARLY OVERLAPS THE GLOBAL

ENSEMBLE MEANS. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN ARE

SUFFICIENTLY FAR OUT TO SEA TO HAVE ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS OVER

LAND. GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT TRENDS OF THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL

SUITES AND THAT THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE HAS NARROWED TO ROUGHLY

INCLUDE JUST THESE MODELS IF WE CONSIDER THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS

WELL...THE UPDATED PRESSURES/FRONTS WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE

06Z GFS. THIS PATH CLIPS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA/NEW

JERSEY WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST...BUT HITS COASTAL

NEW ENGLAND WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. GIVEN

THAT ONLY A SMALL SHIFT IN THE EXACT TRACK WILL HAVE PROFOUND

INFLUENCES ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND THAT PORTIONS OF THE

EVOLVING UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ARE ONLY NOW ENTERING THE MORE

DENSELY POPULATED OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A

LARGE REDUCTION IN THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 MODEL

CYCLES...BEGINNING WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. UNTIL THEN...RECOMMEND

CONSIDERING A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES THAT INCLUDES THE 00Z ECMWF

ON THE STRONG/WESTERN EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE...AND THE 00Z GFS ON

THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE.

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dbc

dbc

Posted
Posted

Its not a matter of me trusting the NAM. All of the models have slowly crept north and east or have been north and east all along. You are exactly right in that you cannot ignore climo here. Read Tony's stats on how many times we get a big Miller A in a strong Nina....its like hitting the lottery. I also agree that this will end up looking more like a Miller B storm even if the low comes from the GOM. Been saying that for days now.

The weenies will be screaming "we've got time" all the way until this thing is 200 miles OTS.

The storm has been on the EURO for 8 runs in a row and until it pulls this thing out to sea, it must be taken extremely seriously. It went North and East on the 0z run but the storm is still there and until it is not, it cannot be just tossed out. Actually it is ludicrous to toss it out.

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gkrangers

gkrangers

Posted
Posted

The storm has been on the EURO for 8 runs in a row and until it pulls this thing out to sea, it must be taken extremely seriously. It went North and East on the 0z run but the storm is still there and until it is not, it cannot be just tossed out. Actually it is ludicrous to toss it out.

Yup, the Euro loses my faith after it itself caves, not because of what the NAM says.

I've gotta think the NAM is too progressive, and am really hoping for a Euro/GFS compromise in the end.

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SteveB

SteveB

Posted
Posted

My thoughts are this is a true 'coastal' storm with minimal impact along I95 DC-NYC. As I was harping on all morning yesterday until told by DT I am a blind clown, the Euro had ZERO support, none, nada. If OT

S was support, then it had some, but the Euro was all alone in it's HECS.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

Now just throwing it out there, but if the Euro does eventually cave and this ends up largely a miss how will it be regarded the rest of the winter?

Yup, the Euro loses my faith after it itself caves, not because of what the NAM says.

I've gotta think the NAM is too progressive, and am really hoping for a Euro/GFS compromise in the end.

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