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bdgwx

July 19-20 Severe Weather

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I've read that this low pressure is becoming vertically stacked.  In the past such lows have usually not been too prolific of a svr wx maker.  So we shall see what happens today and if this holds true or not.  83/71 here now and partly sunny.

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 Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

   Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   NORTHERN/WESTERN TENNESSEE...WESTERN/NORTHERN
   KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN/EASTERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The greatest threat for severe thunderstorms will develop across the
   Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions into the Mid-South today into
   early tonight, with damaging gusts, large hail and tornadoes
   possible.

   ...Mid MS/OH/TN Valleys...
   Morning water vapor loop shows a significant upper low tracking
   southeastward across southern WI.  A strong mid level jet lies to
   the south of the low, extending from the northern Plains into MO. 
   As this upper wind max overspreads the warm sector over parts of the
   Mid MS, OH, and TN Valleys, the risk of rather widespread severe
   thunderstorms will develop this afternoon into tonight.  A very
   moist and unstable air mass has developed across this region with
   pockets of MUCAPE in the 5000-6000 J/kg range.  Steep low and mid
   level lapse rates combined with strong effective shear values will
   result in a conditional risk of severe storms throughout the region.
   The primary forecast uncertainty is the timing and location of
   initiation.

   12z model guidance shows wide diversity in where/when the most
   intense convective clusters will occur later today.  Due to this
   uncertainty, few changes have been made to the ongoing outlook. 
   Discrete supercell development is possible along/ahead of the
   approaching cold front due to shear vectors orthogonal to the front
   and favorable shear magnitudes.  Any storms that remain discrete
   will pose a risk of very large hail and a tornado or two.  It
   appears likely that multiple clusters of storms will congeal into
   fast-moving bowing structures posing a risk of rather widespread
   damaging winds.  This threat will likely spread as far east as
   eastern KY/TN overnight.

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First cells starting to fire off in Northwest Indiana as well. I would imagine that there is probably only a two or three hour window of play room for things to go super-cellular on the MI/IN/OH end of the setup. That said, things are progressing nicely for such a window to occur. CAPE and shear is surging in nicely and quite tightly behind the warm front. 

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Supercell beginnings... starting to rotate

Edit: The LLJ is kind of hampering the rotation right now, but needs to be watched closely

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40 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Horrible avoidable tragedy. 

I hate to say it, but inexperience on the Captain's end is ultimately, what sank this vessel. 

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Radars starting to really pop with many discrete cells near the svr warned cell on radarscope. 

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Horrible avoidable tragedy. 
I have been on that cruise, albeit 20 years or so ago. IIRC you are only on the water for 30 minutes or so. If they don't have someone monitoring the weather and warning them off before they hit the water that is gross negligence.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Louisville KY
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  East central Harrison County in south central Indiana...

* Until 245 PM EDT.

* At 200 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Corydon, moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and baseball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Elizabeth, New Middletown, Bridgeport, Fishtown, Sugar Grove, Seven
  Springs, Dogwood and Lottick Corner.

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
216 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

INC061-201845-
/O.COR.KLMK.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180720T1845Z/
Harrison IN-
216 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL HARRISON COUNTY...

At 216 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near New Middletown, moving east at 30 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elizabeth, New Middletown, Bridgeport, Fishtown, Sugar Grove, Seven
Springs and Lottick Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the
National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency
who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the
path of dangerous weather.

&&

LAT...LON 3818 8590 3816 8591 3809 8591 3806 8592
      3813 8613 3819 8611 3819 8595
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 281DEG 24KT 3813 8607

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...2.75IN

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4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

yikes looking bad..lots of debris detected

Coming very close to New Middletown, tiny town just 5-10mi west of the OH river. If it makes it across the river, uh oh...

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New tornado warning for supercell located near Madison, IN. Thing has a nasty look as well. Every storm in the OH River valley from Cincy to Louisville has a hooking feature.

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Updated SWS at 2:26PM only has confirmed tornado wording... no PDS wording or large/extremely dangerous wording for the Harrison county storm like the 2:16 SWS had

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