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Tropical Storm Chris

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Slow but steady intensification continues. 

Seems similar in appearance to Ophelia last year. I don't think it will make CAT3 but not out of the question, especially if it tracks further east and stays over the warmer SSTS.

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Slow but steady intensification continues.  Seems similar in appearance to Ophelia last year. I don't think it will make CAT3 but not out of the question, especially if it tracks further east and stays over the warmer SSTS.

 

This was pretty much expected through current time. Shear has relaxed. Should be less mid-level stable air getting forced into what appears to be a developing core. This evening through tomorrow should be good steady identification, perhaps even a burst of significant intensification on Tuesday. I don't know if this will ever have the ingredients to experience RI though. But tomorrow may very well surprise once the SW steering flow begins to develop. Upwelling isn't so much of an issue simply due to the fact that the 26° isotherm is plenty deep enough at that location, enhanced by the Gulf Stream, and the upper atmosphere is a bit cooler than a typical tropical environment setup to help with tropospheric instability and convection. Also there should be some baroclinic support as the mid-level trough digs in on Wed. Though how much is a question. I suspect the window will close rather quickly on Wed though with increasing shear and colder SSTs. So the next 36-48 hrs is feast and afterwards, famine.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Amped said:

3km NAM does that with every TC that dares enter it's domain. It's a known bug, and if it were up to me there'd be a pinned warning about it at the top of this forum.

Okay, was just saying...

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image.thumb.png.c9cf99cd439df86948bb27f85c63ca15.png

Convection continues to wrap around, gradually cutting off dry air feed. On the southern side, we see the convection being sustained as it wraps. 

Approximately -70 C cloud tops. Image from 7:45 local time.

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goes16_vis-swir_03L_201807101406.jpg?32.8286.5

Chris finally being ejected, and explosive convection is occurringimage.thumb.png.d0b75aff8b77b8f1dd2bcf574add6fd9.png

Chris is organizing nicely

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Still TS Chris at 11am

 

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chris Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

...CHRIS FINALLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 73.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of North Carolina and in Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chris was
located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 73.1 West. Chris is
moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue today. A faster northeastward motion is
expected to begin tonight and continue into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Chris is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later
today when it moves over warmer waters, and some additional
strengthening is expected through Wednesday night. Chris is forecast
to become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Thursday night or early
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).

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034 
WTNT43 KNHC 101452
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

During the past 6 hours, Chris has developed a well-defined eye in
both satellite and radar imagery at times, with a diameter that has
varied in size from 30 nmi to the present 20 nmi. The overall
convective pattern has also become more symmetrical with
well-established outflow present in all quadrants. Satellite
intensity estimates are T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, and T4.0/65 kt from
SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT, and Chris certainly has the satellite
appearance of being a hurricane. However, the intensity is being
maintained at 60 kt for this advisory due to significant cold
upwelling that has occurred beneath the cyclone when Chris was
moving slowly during the previous 48 hours. The colder waters have
likely stabilized the boundary layer, which has inhibited stronger
winds aloft from mixing down to the surface. The cold upwelling is
supported by sea-surface temperature (SST) data from nearby NOAA
Buoy 41002, which has shown 6 deg F of cooling during the past 48
hours, and is currently sitting at 76F. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Chris this
afternoon to provide a better intensity estimate.

Recent satellite and radar fixes indicate that Chris is finally
moving northeastward at a faster forward speed, and the initial
motion estimate is now 050/08 kt. The narrow subtropical ridge to
the southeast of the cyclone is getting pushed northward by the
remnants of Beryl, which has helped to finally nudge Chris toward
the northeast. A further increase in forward speed is expected as a
strong deep-layer trough digs southeastward along the U.S. east
coast, accelerating the cyclone at forward speeds of 25-30 kt by 48
hours and beyond. Chris is forecast to pass well southeast of Nova
Scotia in a couple of days, and move near or over southeastern
Newfoundland in about 60 hours. The NHC track guidance remains in
good agreement on the evolving steering flow regime, but there
continues to be some pronounced speed differences. The new NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to the
consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and TVCN.

My best estimate, based on the data from Buoy 41002, is that
significant upwelling likely occurred within the 30-kt wind radii
while Chris was nearly stationary. Assuming that that is the case,
then Chris will be moving over warmer waters shortly, which should
allow for an increase in convection to occur and also for winds
aloft to better mix downward to the surface. The vertical wind shear
is forecast to remain modest at 10-15 kt for the next 24 hours, so
gradual intensification is expected during that time. By 48 hours,
Chris will have crossed over the north wall of the Gulfstream and be
moving over SSTs colder than 20 deg C, which will combine with
strong southwesterly wind shear, and cause Chris to rapidly
transition to an extratropical cyclone. The official intensity
forecast follows the FSSE intensity model through 36 hours, and then
shows more significant weakening after that, similar to the SHIPS,
LGEM, and HCCA models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 33.1N  73.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 33.9N  71.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 35.6N  69.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 38.4N  65.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 42.0N  60.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 48.1N  49.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  14/1200Z 52.0N  31.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  15/1200Z 54.0N  18.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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16 hours ago, Windspeed said:

This was pretty much expected through current time. Shear has relaxed. Should be less mid-level stable air getting forced into what appears to be a developing core. This evening through tomorrow should be good steady identification, perhaps even a burst of significant intensification on Tuesday. I don't know if this will ever have the ingredients to experience RI though. But tomorrow may very well surprise once the SW steering flow begins to develop. Upwelling isn't so much of an issue simply due to the fact that the 26° isotherm is plenty deep enough at that location, enhanced by the Gulf Stream, and the upper atmosphere is a bit cooler than a typical tropical environment setup to help with tropospheric instability and convection. Also there should be some baroclinic support as the mid-level trough digs in on Wed. Though how much is a question. I suspect the window will close rather quickly on Wed though with increasing shear and colder SSTs. So the next 36-48 hrs is feast and afterwards, famine.

 

 

NHC seems to be arguing that upwelling is the reason Chris hasn't intensified at a faster pace per today's 11am disco

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With that much time over one spot, it's hard not to have issues with upwelling given the time of year and location IMO. That said, we haven't seen any real weakening as a result of it. Chris has held its own and looks to be intensifying with a stronger inner core. We'll see how much it can maximize the environment over the next day. 

As a side note, it's a bit interesting that we're ahead of the averages with our third named storm and (soon to be) second hurricane at a time when many are expecting a below average season. I'm still not sold on a robust MDR/CV season. I think a Caribbean/Homebrew season still looks most likely, and from there it's always about the upper level pattern that determines if anything close to the coast is a real threat or not.  

2018190at.jpg

2018190atd26.png

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984mb extrapolated.  70kt sfmr, looks like a cane finally.

Edit: 74kt in the E eyewall. Dropsonde confirms 984 pressure.

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Just checking in to let everyone know my location may be in the path of the storm - Cape Breton, NS.  If anything interesting happens, I promise to upload some photos and maybe a video and certainly a running commentary if warranted.  My specific location is on the Bras d'Or Lakes near the middle of the island.  The Bras d'Or is a very large "inland sea" with two openings to the Atlantic and has salty to brackish water.  Storms definitely can whip the lake into a white cap frenzy and wind always barrels down the road in front of our house even when it is not all that windy over all (wind tunnel effect). We are tucked into the base of a small (900 feet) mountain and sit a good 50 feet above sea level.  

We are making a few preparations:  topping off gas to run the generator, filling canning jars with water, securing our green house as much as possible, laying any plants staked down on the ground, removing anything outside that could fly to the garage and, if by chance we get a direct hit at hurricane force, we'll be prepared to remove some inside doors to place and secure over the inside of the front windows - that's the exposed side of the house.  I took photos of the gorgeous rose bushes in the front yard today because the wind will do a number on them and I'll have a before and after. They are truly amazing this year.  The biggest thing we have to be concerned about are the very large trees around the house.  Having one of them come down on the house would be bad news.  

As I recall, it is twice as likely that a hurricane/tropical storm makes landfall in Newfoundland as in Cape Breton or Nova Scotia.  Given that and the fact that the storm track is predicted to be just South of us, the likelihood of having a full fledged hurricane experience here is not high.  However, you never know.  Juan was bad enough and White Juan was worse (5 days without power in cold winter weather when we had no generator or wood stove) but those, to date, were the worst I've seen here.  Unless we lose internet with the towers taken out, I'll be letting you know what's happening here Thurs.  It will be nice to be able to contribute something in return for all the great information all of you post.  

 

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10 minutes ago, NoOneAtAll (NOAA) said:

Just checking in to let everyone know my location may be in the path of the storm - Cape Breton, NS.  If anything interesting happens, I promise to upload some photos and maybe a video and certainly a running commentary if warranted.  My specific location is on the Bras d'Or Lakes near the middle of the island.  The Bras d'Or is a very large "inland sea" with two openings to the Atlantic and has salty to brackish water.  Storms definitely can whip the lake into a white cap frenzy and wind always barrels down the road in front of our house even when it is not all that windy over all (wind tunnel effect). We are tucked into the base of a small (900 feet) mountain and sit a good 50 feet above sea level.  

We are making a few preparations:  topping off gas to run the generator, filling canning jars with water, securing our green house as much as possible, laying any plants staked down on the ground, removing anything outside that could fly to the garage and, if by chance we get a direct hit at hurricane force, we'll be prepared to remove some inside doors to place and secure over the inside of the front windows - that's the exposed side of the house.  I took photos of the gorgeous rose bushes in the front yard today because the wind will do a number on them and I'll have a before and after. They are truly amazing this year.  The biggest thing we have to be concerned about are the very large trees around the house.  Having one of the come down on the house would be bad news.  

As I recall, it is twice as likely that a hurricane/tropical storm makes landfall in Newfoundland as in Cape Breton or Nova Scotia.  Given that and the fact that the storm track is predicted to be just South of us, the likelihood of having a full fledged hurricane experience here is not high.  However, you never know.  Juan was bad enough and White Juan was worse (5 days without power in cold winter weather when we had no generator or wood stove) but those, to date, were the worst I've seen here.  Unless we loose internet with the towers taken out, I'll be letting you know what's happening here Thurs.  It will be nice to be able to contribute something in return for all the great information all of you post.  

 

Good luck and be safe! 

Chris is a hurricane. As Amped said, all the data suggests it. GOES has just been a sight to behold in the last few hours with a closed eye, some clearing happening in the center and an impressive IR appearance.

If you haven't looked at the 96 or 200 frame IR and visible loop, do that now. Wow. 

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 18:40Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306 
Storm Number & Year: 03 in 2018
Storm Name: Chris (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 18:05:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 33.40N 72.80W
B. Center Fix Location: 202 statute miles (325 km) to the SE (129°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,275m (4,183ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 110° at 4kts (From the ESE at 5mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 69kts (79.4mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the NNW (331°) of center fix at 18:02:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 75° at 66kts (From the ENE at 76.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNW (337°) of center fix at 18:02:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 74kts (85.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SE (132°) of center fix at 18:10:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 228° at 88kts (From the SW at 101.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SE (132°) of center fix at 18:10:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,511m (4,957ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 88kts (~ 101.3mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SE (132°) from the flight level center at 18:10:30Z
 
 
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8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Good luck and be safe! 

Chris is a hurricane. As Amped said, all the data suggests it. GOES has just been a sight to behold in the last few hours with a closed eye, some clearing happening in the center and an impressive IR appearance.

If you haven't looked at the 96 or 200 frame IR and visible loop, do that now. Wow. 

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 18:40Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306 
Storm Number & Year: 03 in 2018
Storm Name: Chris (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 18:05:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 33.40N 72.80W
B. Center Fix Location: 202 statute miles (325 km) to the SE (129°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,275m (4,183ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 110° at 4kts (From the ESE at 5mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 69kts (79.4mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the NNW (331°) of center fix at 18:02:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 75° at 66kts (From the ENE at 76.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNW (337°) of center fix at 18:02:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 74kts (85.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SE (132°) of center fix at 18:10:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 228° at 88kts (From the SW at 101.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SE (132°) of center fix at 18:10:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,511m (4,957ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 88kts (~ 101.3mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SE (132°) from the flight level center at 18:10:30Z
 
 

Thanks for the link (it disappeared from the page after I used it!?!).  You're right, it's looking like something to be respected.  Don't worry, I plan on watching this thread closely.  It will be much superior to any info provided by Environment Canada.  ATM their forecast is "chance of showers" for Thurs. but they do have a "Tropical Cyclone Information Statements" notice elsewhere on the site:

For Tropical Storm Chris.

The next information statement will be issued by 9:00 p.m. ADT.

Tropical Storm Chris is likely to become a hurricane off the Carolina coast this evening. It will then begin to accelerate northeastward over the next several days and may track near the Avalon Peninsula as a post-tropical storm later Thursday night or early Friday morning.


1. Summary of basic information at 3:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: Near 33.3 North 72.8 West.

About 335 km southeast of Cape Hatteras.

Maximum sustained winds: 110 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: Northeast at 15 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 992 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

At this time the most likely land areas to receive direct impacts will be southeastern Newfoundland where Chris could make landfall as a post-tropical storm later Thursday night or early Friday morning. Based on the current track, these areas could be impacted with heavy rain, strong winds, and heavy waves with storm surge along parts of the coast. The Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia could receive some ocean swells and may possibly be brushed from some outer rainbands from Chris as it passes by to the south of that province. Details will become more clear once the system moves into Canadian waters and its forecast of track and intensity can be made with more confidence.

a. Wind.

The most likely area for strongest winds from Chris will be over the Avalon Peninsula. Based on current track and intensity the likely range of maximum winds for these areas will be in the 80 km/h to 100 km/h range. More details will become available once the system's track and intensity become more certain.

b. Rainfall.

The greatest potential for heavy rainfall associated with Chris will be over southeastern half of Newfoundland and possibly over easternmost areas of Nova Scotia. If the current forecast track holds, amounts in excess of 50 millimetres are possible with even higher amounts possible for parts of Newfoundland. Rainfall warnings may be required for some areas.

c. Surge and waves.

High waves, pounding surf and storm surge will be a consideration for the southern coastlines of the Avalon Peninsula. Swells along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia could reach 2 to 4 metres. For southern Newfoundland, of 4 to 6 metres are possible with potentially up to 8 metres possible for parts of the Avalon Peninsula based on the current forecast track.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Storm and gale-force winds will develop over portions of the offshore waters of the Maritimes on Thursday and over southern Newfoundland waters Thursday night into Friday. Hurricane-force winds are possible for portions of the Scotian slope waters south of Nova Scotia on Thursday. Significant wave heights could reach near 10 metres over offshore waters near the track of the storm as it tracks through the Canadian marine district.

Forecaster(s):Borgel

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

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Still awaiting the first swellsfrom Chris on Long Island. As Chris starts to head east away from the obx block we should start to see swells increase overnight. Swells tomorrow should be in the 5 foot range tomorrow which will lead to 5-8’ breaking waves. Rip currents kill every year In what most call fish storms 

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Boy, this thing is really looking good this afternoon, with deep convection encircling a now clear, circular eye.  Apparently, all that was needed was a move off of that upwelled cold pool.

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Still no update from NHC, but 18z guidance is initialized as a cane. Also doesn't look like major impact eastern Canada, I'm sure they saw plenty worse than 50kts this winter.

 

145514.png

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GANIMjvXZf110.jpg

 

Chris is looking healthy on clean longwave infrared satellite. Some new convection on the east side with ~ -70-80 C vortical hot towers. 

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Thanks for the link (it disappeared from the page after I used it!?!).  You're right, it's looking like something to be respected.  Don't worry, I plan on watching this thread closely.  It will be much superior to any info provided by Environment Canada.  ATM their forecast is "chance of showers" for Thurs. but they do have a "Tropical Cyclone Information Statements" notice elsewhere on the site:

For Tropical Storm Chris.

The next information statement will be issued by 9:00 p.m. ADT.

Tropical Storm Chris is likely to become a hurricane off the Carolina coast this evening. It will then begin to accelerate northeastward over the next several days and may track near the Avalon Peninsula as a post-tropical storm later Thursday night or early Friday morning.


1. Summary of basic information at 3:00 p.m. ADT.

Location: Near 33.3 North 72.8 West.

About 335 km southeast of Cape Hatteras.

Maximum sustained winds: 110 kilometres per hour.

Present movement: Northeast at 15 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 992 millibars.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

At this time the most likely land areas to receive direct impacts will be southeastern Newfoundland where Chris could make landfall as a post-tropical storm later Thursday night or early Friday morning. Based on the current track, these areas could be impacted with heavy rain, strong winds, and heavy waves with storm surge along parts of the coast. The Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia could receive some ocean swells and may possibly be brushed from some outer rainbands from Chris as it passes by to the south of that province. Details will become more clear once the system moves into Canadian waters and its forecast of track and intensity can be made with more confidence.

a. Wind.

The most likely area for strongest winds from Chris will be over the Avalon Peninsula. Based on current track and intensity the likely range of maximum winds for these areas will be in the 80 km/h to 100 km/h range. More details will become available once the system's track and intensity become more certain.

b. Rainfall.

The greatest potential for heavy rainfall associated with Chris will be over southeastern half of Newfoundland and possibly over easternmost areas of Nova Scotia. If the current forecast track holds, amounts in excess of 50 millimetres are possible with even higher amounts possible for parts of Newfoundland. Rainfall warnings may be required for some areas.

c. Surge and waves.

High waves, pounding surf and storm surge will be a consideration for the southern coastlines of the Avalon Peninsula. Swells along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia could reach 2 to 4 metres. For southern Newfoundland, of 4 to 6 metres are possible with potentially up to 8 metres possible for parts of the Avalon Peninsula based on the current forecast track.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Storm and gale-force winds will develop over portions of the offshore waters of the Maritimes on Thursday and over southern Newfoundland waters Thursday night into Friday. Hurricane-force winds are possible for portions of the Scotian slope waters south of Nova Scotia on Thursday. Significant wave heights could reach near 10 metres over offshore waters near the track of the storm as it tracks through the Canadian marine district.

Forecaster(s):Borgel

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.


You’ll be fine. Maybe a few showers and brisk breeze but that would be about it. Nice looking storm but should move well east of us. YYT might have to keep an eye on things.

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3 minutes ago, Hazey said:


You’ll be fine. Maybe a few showers and brisk breeze but that would be about it. Nice looking storm but should move well east of us. YYT might have to keep an eye on things.

Yep, that's what I figure.  I'm always torn between wanting to experience it first hand and wanting it to be far away enough not to do any damage.  I hated seeing all those beautiful old trees down in Halifax after Juan so a miss is good.

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980.4mb latest pass.  That recent convective burst in the eyewall is probably to thank for it.

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recon_AF306-1103A-CHRIS_zoom.png

Estimated. 980 next advisory? Hurricane hunters recon has made another pass through the eyewall and is into the eye. Wouldn't be surprised if a dropsonde has something similar.

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Quote
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 33.7N  72.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 34.9N  70.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 37.1N  67.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 40.5N  62.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 44.7N  57.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  13/1800Z 51.0N  41.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  14/1800Z 55.2N  22.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  15/1800Z 59.0N  12.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

12 more hours of intensification according to NHC.    At this intensification rate it will be pushing CAT3.  ADT already says 95kts, and the last gap in the eyewall appears to be closing fast.

FYI last time there was a CAT 3 in July was 2005.

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Probably Wrong but definitely entertaining.

Some kind of a MAUL infused sting jet that happens during ET transition.  Other models are showing lesser versions of it.

SqfAouU.png

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Well I can't say I'm surprised. Chris looks to be undergoing strong intensification now with plenty of time remaining before the environment becomes hostile. Category 3 seems almost a certainty at this point by perhaps midday Wednesday.

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10 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Well I can't say I'm surprised. Chris looks to be undergoing strong intensification now with plenty of time remaining before the environment becomes hostile. Category 3 seems almost a certainty at this point by perhaps midday Wednesday.

Yep, stalled over the same area is no means for intensification. It's just over cooled waters. 

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