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Hoosier

June 2018 General Discussion

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28 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Euro sure is warm later this week, especially in the western/southern sub. It has highs topping 100 in central IL. That may be overzealous.  

Interesting.  It actually underplayed the late May heatwave by quite a bit.  Last summer though it was always overdoing it with the heat over areas that were pretty dry.  Maybe a blend between the GFS and Euro may be the way to go?

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55 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Euro sure is warm later this week, especially in the western/southern sub. It has highs topping 100 in central IL. That may be overzealous.  

Just based on my quick experiences in Central IL it’s way overdone. Highs today topped out at 87/88 near ILX and Bloomington rather than low 90s. You can see on the 2m Td plots how overmixed the euro has been too - low to mid 40s dews forecasted and 50-55F in reality. I think a GFS/EPS blend probably works best. Still hot, but not that bad. 

 

I also remember this was a pretty common problem working at DMX last summer too. I’m not entirely sure why it happens, but it’s fairly common especially in the early summer.

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Big change from earlier.  Dropped almost 25 degrees back to 66.  The dew actually spiked up to 67 for a short while as the front came through.  Some pretty nice moisture convergence there.  Was just enough to spark off some scattered weak convection.  

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2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Big change from earlier.  Dropped almost 25 degrees back to 66.  The dew actually spiked up to 67 for a short while as the front came through.  Some pretty nice moisture convergence there.  Was just enough to spark off some scattered weak convection.  

Now down to 59/48.  Kind of like these hot days followed by abnormally cool and dry nights as the "sea breeze" blows in during the evening.  Would love that to continue all summer, but it's pretty unusual to see it this late in the season.  

MLI actually made it to 91 today instead of 90.

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ORD hit 48 this morning, and 43 at UGN.  Pretty chilly for June 6.

The June 6 record low at ORD is 39 in 1985...which happens to be the 2nd latest in the season with a temp in the 30s (the latest 30s in the season was 38 on 6/21/1992...a huge anomaly helped by Pinatubo). 5 daily record low temps from June 1992 still stand, all in the June 20-30 period. 

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The usual warm spot DTW was 49° this morning and the usual cold spot white lake was 39°. Anyway you slice it a chilly morning. Love this weather!

My brother is in Houston for 3 days and was all excited to be in hot weather as he loves heat. 1 day in and he hates it! Says it's so humid and the air so thick you cant breathe, and nobody is outside. I do not know how people live in that for months.

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We woke up to dews in the 40s, with temps held in the 60s for much of the morning.  Now, a few hours later, it's 80 with a dew in the mid 60s.  Low 70s dews are on the doorstep.

The lawns have really slowed down around here.  The rich green lushness has faded into moderate green with some brown.  We could use some good rain.  Nobody really knows what the heck we'll get from the storminess through the weekend.  We could get a couple inches, but also a quarter inch.

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2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

We woke up to dews in the 40s, with temps held in the 60s for much of the morning.  Now, a few hours later, it's 80 with a dew in the mid 60s.  Low 70s dews are on the doorstep.

The lawns have really slowed down around here.  The rich green lushness has faded into moderate green with some brown.  We could use some good rain.  Nobody really knows what the heck we'll get from the storminess through the weekend.  We could get a couple inches, but also a quarter inch.

Yeah the lawns here have really browned up over the past 7-10 days.  Most of the rain last month was early on.  

After dipping to 52 we made it all the way back up to 89.  MLI bagged another 90 today.

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On today's date back in 1860 the highest caliber weather event in the DVN cwa occurred.  A monster cyclical supercell developed in northwest Iowa, and dropped a family of tornadoes from southeast of Fort Dodge all the way into northern IL.  Killed over 140 people. 

http://qconline.com/editorials/great-tornado-among-most-deadly/article_754c0d6b-70d2-50e7-9b7f-a2ceb941c5f6.html

https://www.gendisasters.com/illinois/2463/camanche-ia-tornado-jun-1860

https://www.gendisasters.com/iowa/13523/cedar-rapids-ia-albany-il-tornado-june-1860

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17 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah the lawns here have really browned up over the past 7-10 days.  Most of the rain last month was early on.  

After dipping to 52 we made it all the way back up to 89.  MLI bagged another 90 today.

Already the 9th 90 degree day at MLI this year.

That is the 2nd most 90+ degree days at MLI through June 6.  The only year that had more of them through 6/6 was 1934, which had 15 days.

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Already the 9th 90 degree day at MLI this year.

That is the 2nd most 90+ degree days at MLI through June 6.  The only year that had more of them through 6/6 was 1934, which had 15 days.

Nice!  Man the 12z Euro really brings the heat later next week/next weekend.  It really expands the heat dome, and looks to be quite impressive.  

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Nice!  Man the 12z Euro really brings the heat later next week/next weekend.  It really expands the heat dome, and looks to be quite impressive.  

Only time will tell. Fingers crossed. Otherwise, we're paying for May this month.

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44 minutes ago, Spartman said:

Only time will tell. Fingers crossed. Otherwise, we're paying for May this month.

Better hope DAY isn't sentenced to debris cloud hell.  :devilsmiley:

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You guys can take your heat, I’ll take my 70s with occasional storminess (with any luck).  Beautiful afternoon and evening after the first half of the day saw cloudiness, a tad bit of rain and a couple rumblers.

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Models are suggesting El Nino development this summer.  Will have to see if it's real or if it sort of ends up being a fakeout that hovers in warm neutral. With it already being June and the typical lag time, I doubt it would have much impact on how the summer evolves.  If it does, we are probably talking August/September. 

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Better hope DAY isn't sentenced to debris cloud hell.  :devilsmiley:

That or Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown if the heat even gets pushed back.

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D0 expanded in IL/IN.  I have noticed some brown getting mixed in on the lawns around here too... the almost painted-on green look from earlier in spring is gone.

Question is how well the rain pattern materializes in the areas that really need it.  You need around an inch of rain per week at this time of year just to keep pace with evaporation rates, and probably even a bit more than that if it's hot/sunny.

 

20180605_Midwest_trd.thumb.png.1f45d7955f67ef5f49612d00b852de68.png

30dPNormMRCC.png.a8ed97d48b7af80495a0d5855944a425.png

60dPNormMRCC.png.2395ade7fe6dad190572111f4a9e81ac.png

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Just checking in and see cyclone talking Euro fantasy land heat and Hoosier beating the drought drum. Yep, same ole same ole. :D ;)

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5 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Just checking in and see cyclone talking Euro fantasy land heat and Hoosier beating the drought drum. Yep, same ole same ole. :D ;)

lol, I know how to get you out of hiding.  :scooter:

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The BGI (backyard grass index) around here is getting into drought status to be sure.  Really browning up in areas that get full sun much of the day.  The area crops don't seem to be suffering any yet.  There's fields where the corn is now waste high.  Evapotranspiration is probably already quite significant.

Bagged another 90 here, and MLI hit 91.  

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If another tropical disturbance develops in the gulf, the models are going to horrible in the longer range. Crazy how fast this season is developing.

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After teasing warmth in May, June has started the exact opposite.  Mqt is running -6.1 for the month and it isn't much different here.  My average high to date has been 59 and the low 41. Coldest night so far was 36, two nights ago, and the warmest day until today was 64.

On a scale of 1-10 this season, the bugs are a 3 which really, really good compared to last year! The sun is rising here at 5:57... the earliest it will and is setting at 9:42, peaking later at 9:49 before the shorter days begin.  Summer nights are the best... unless it's a winter night. :)

 

...And of course like every year, my 'maters are growing leggy, reaching through the dense north woods forest for every bit of sun they can soak in.

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2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

After teasing warmth in May, June has started the exact opposite.  Mqt is running -6.1 for the month and it isn't much different here.  My average high to date has been 59 and the low 41. Coldest night so far was 36, two nights ago, and the warmest day until today was 64.

On a scale of 1-10 this season, the bugs are a 3 which really, really good compared to last year! The sun is rising here at 5:57... the earliest it will and is setting at 9:42, peaking later at 9:49 before the shorter days begin.  Summer nights are the best... unless it's a winter night. :)

 

...And of course like every year, my 'maters are growing leggy, reaching through the dense north woods forest for every bit of sun they can soak in.

Wow, that's crazy how cool it's been.  I also didn't realize how late the sun stays out up there.  That's over an hour later than our sunset.

Getting another great light show at the moment.  Some non-severe storms have popped up to the west and southwest.  If they hold together we could get a few good downpours shortly.

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